FDX vs AMZN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
FDX is the pure-play logistics and delivery investment, currently navigating cost restructuring while facing Amazon's growing in-house delivery capability as a long-term structural headwind. AMZN is a diversified technology and commerce giant where logistics is a cost-reduction and competitive moat, not the primary investment thesis.
FDX vs AMZN explores how Amazon's logistics build-out represents a strategic threat to FedEx's package delivery volumes and market position over the long term.
AMZN holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. FDX leads on both 1-year return (+35.48%) and forward P/E quality (15.88x vs 24.68x for AMZN), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. AMZN leads on both revenue growth (19.60%) and operating margin (13.69%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for AMZN (+27.80%) than for FDX (+7.70%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want direct exposure to global freight and package delivery infrastructure
- Believe FedEx's DRIVE cost program will meaningfully improve margins
- See value in FedEx's international express network not easily replicated by Amazon
- Want exposure to AWS cloud computing, e-commerce, and digital advertising
- See Amazon's logistics as a long-term competitive moat supporting its retail economics
- Prefer a more diversified technology and commerce investment than a pure logistics play
| Metric | FDX | AMZN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 44.0 | 62.4 |
| AI ranki | #836 | #122 |
| Latest closei | $305.88 | $251.19 |
| 1M returni | -6.85% | -3.18% |
| 6M returni | -14.11% | +20.32% |
| 1Y returni | +35.48% | +8.45% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | FDX | AMZN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.5K (+35.0%) started 2025-09-18 | $10.86K (+8.6%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $14.07K (+40.7%) started 2021-09-20 | $14.97K (+49.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $24.83K (+148.3%) started 2016-09-19 | $64.81K (+548.1%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | FDX | AMZN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $78.31B | $2.77T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.83 | 20.66 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.88 | 24.68 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 3.49 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.14 | 3.74 |
| Analyst targeti | $356.37 | $328.17 |
| Target upsidei | +7.70% | +27.80% |
| Metric | FDX | AMZN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 12.50% | 19.60% |
| Earnings growthi | -4.30% | 242.30% |
| EPS growthi | -4.30% | +242.30% |
| FCF margini | +5.97% | +0.42% |
| Operating margini | 11.13% | 13.69% |
| Profit margini | 4.68% | 17.44% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.85% | 30.56% |
| Return on equityi | 14.85% | 30.56% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.47% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 31.27% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.36 | 1.44 |
| Debt/equityi | 135.70 | 45.62 |
| Current ratioi | 1.48 | 1.03 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.39 | 0.84 |
Over the past year, FDX and AMZN have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.19), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | FDX | AMZN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +35.05% | +8.63% |
| CAGRi | +35.09% | +8.64% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.56% | 34.37% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.94 | 0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.23 | 0.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 26.73% | 21.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 25.72% | 11.56% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.53% | 8.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.78% | 10.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.79% | 5.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.21% | 14.09% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +30.84% | +49.71% |
| CAGRi | +5.53% | +8.41% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.90% | 36.46% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.20 | 0.28 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.27 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.30% | 55.73% | |
| Current drawdowni | 25.72% | 11.56% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.55% | 18.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.69% | 23.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.40% | 14.05% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.25% | 20.35% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +116.06% | +548.15% |
| CAGRi | +8.01% | +20.56% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.50% | 33.11% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.27 | 0.60 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.37 | 0.88 | |
| Max drawdowni | 65.97% | 56.15% | |
| Current drawdowni | 25.72% | 11.56% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.72% | 12.88% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.62% | 18.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.40% | 14.05% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.25% | 20.35% |
| Category | FDX | AMZN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | FedEx Corporation | Amazon.com, Inc. |
| Sector | Industrials | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Integrated Freight & Logistics | Internet Retail |
| Core business | FedEx provides global express and ground package delivery, freight transportation, and logistics services, operating one of the world's largest transportation networks with a fleet of aircraft and ground vehicles. | Amazon is a diversified technology and commerce company; its logistics arm (Amazon Logistics) has grown into one of the largest U.S. delivery networks, handling the majority of its own package deliveries and increasingly competing with FedEx and UPS. |
| Investor focus | Investors track FedEx's revenue per package trends, ongoing DRIVE cost transformation program savings, and its ability to defend market share and pricing as Amazon's in-house logistics network expands. | Investors primarily track Amazon Web Services revenue and margin, but increasingly monitor how Amazon Logistics' scale and efficiency affect overall fulfillment cost structure. |
- One of two dominant U.S. package delivery networks alongside UPS
- Ongoing DRIVE program restructuring targets significant multi-year cost savings
- International express network provides a distinct capability Amazon has not replicated at scale
- Amazon Logistics has scaled rapidly to handle the majority of Amazon's own package deliveries
- Captive package volume from Amazon's own e-commerce operations provides scale advantages
- Technology-driven logistics operations (robotics, routing) drive ongoing efficiency improvements
- Amazon's growing in-house delivery network reduces its reliance on FedEx for package volumes
- B2C package volume growth has been more volatile than B2B, affecting revenue mix
- High fixed-cost network requires strong volume to maintain profitability during economic slowdowns
- Amazon Logistics is not a standalone publicly reported segment, limiting direct visibility into its economics
- Amazon's primary public investment story centers on AWS cloud and advertising, not logistics
- Third-party logistics competition with FedEx/UPS is a secondary narrative for Amazon investors
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