AMZN vs ETSY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AMZN and ETSY are e-commerce companies at very different scales with minimal direct competition. Amazon is the everything store (commodities, brands, electronics, groceries at scale) plus AWS cloud and advertising. Etsy is the niche handmade and vintage marketplace where Amazon's commodity model literally cannot compete with artisan-made one-of-a-kind products. They serve different consumer needs; most Etsy buyers also shop on Amazon regularly without treating them as substitutes.
AMZN vs ETSY — Amazon (the world's largest e-commerce marketplace plus AWS cloud platform and $50B+ high-margin advertising business) versus Etsy (the niche handmade and vintage marketplace with unique seller-made inventory that Amazon cannot commodity-source and a global 90M+ buyer community seeking personalized and vintage products).
ETSY holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ETSY leads on both 1-year return (+65.16%) and forward P/E quality (12.13x vs 24.68x for AMZN), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, AMZN is growing revenue faster (19.60%), while ETSY maintains the higher operating margin (18.74%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for AMZN (+27.80%) than for ETSY (+4.13%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want exposure to AWS cloud growth, Amazon Advertising's high-margin revenue expansion, and AI infrastructure investment (Trainium chips, Bedrock) in a diversified technology platform
- see Prime's 200M+ member loyalty flywheel as creating compounding advantages in e-commerce, advertising, and streaming media that compound over time
- value Amazon's logistics infrastructure (fulfillment centers, delivery fleet, last-mile) as a moat that took decades to build and would cost hundreds of billions to replicate
- are comfortable with antitrust scrutiny, thin retail margins, and Azure competition for AWS cloud market share
- believe handmade and vintage products represent a defensible niche that Amazon's commodity marketplace model cannot penetrate — the seller-created inventory is inherently non-commodity
- see Etsy's high transaction fee gross margins (70%+) and asset-light model as attractive economic characteristics at a lower valuation than Amazon
- value Depop and resale secondhand fashion as a growing market segment with a different buyer demographic (younger, environmentally conscious) that expands Etsy's total addressable market
- are comfortable with post-pandemic GMS normalization, Amazon Handmade competition, and seller fee pushback risk that could reduce supply-side quality of the marketplace
| Metric | AMZN | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 62.8 | 55.7 |
| AI ranki | #119 | #281 |
| Latest closei | $266.03 | $96.24 |
| 1M returni | +5.82% | +35.76% |
| 3M returni | -2.43% | +12.09% |
| 6M returni | -3.26% | +48.13% |
| 1Y returni | +6.70% | +65.16% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AMZN | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.63K (+6.3%) started 2025-11-05 | $15.97K (+59.7%) started 2025-11-05 |
| 5Y ago | $15.25K (+52.5%) started 2021-11-08 | $3.7K (-63.0%) started 2021-11-05 |
| 10Y ago | $67.78K (+577.8%) started 2016-11-07 | $81.77K (+717.7%) started 2016-11-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AMZN | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.77T | $7.67B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 20.66 | 26.45 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.68 | 12.13 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.49 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.74 | 3.27 |
| Analyst targeti | $328.17 | $87.04 |
| Target upsidei | +27.80% | +4.13% |
| Metric | AMZN | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 19.60% | 6.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 242.30% | -7.10% |
| EPS growthi | +242.30% | -7.10% |
| FCF margini | +0.42% | +5.77% |
| Operating margini | 13.69% | 18.74% |
| Profit margini | 17.44% | 7.11% |
| ROIC proxyi | 30.56% | N/A |
| Return on equityi | 30.56% | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.44 | 1.82 |
| Debt/equityi | 45.62 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 1.03 | 1.48 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.84 | 0.89 |
Over the past year, AMZN and ETSY have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.18), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AMZN | ETSY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +6.33% | +59.65% |
| CAGRi | +6.34% | +59.79% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.67% | 48.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.22 | 1.13 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.36 | 1.67 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.55% | 31.06% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.33% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.05% | 10.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.47% | 12.40% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.55% | 12.24% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.09% | 20.91% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +52.50% | -63.00% |
| CAGRi | +8.82% | -18.04% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.87% | 55.21% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.29 | -0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.43 | -0.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.73% | 86.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.33% | 67.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.43% | 71.70% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.66% | 73.07% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.05% | 16.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.35% | 28.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +577.84% | +717.67% |
| CAGRi | +21.11% | +23.40% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.32% | 55.97% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.61 | 0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.90 | 0.86 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.15% | 86.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.33% | 67.59% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.87% | 41.78% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.20% | 52.91% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.05% | 17.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.35% | 35.34% |
| Category | AMZN | ETSY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Amazon.com, Inc. | Etsy, Inc. |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Internet Retail | Internet Retail |
| Core business | Amazon is the world's largest e-commerce marketplace and cloud infrastructure company (AWS). Amazon's marketplace (third-party seller) and first-party retail business generates 40%+ of US e-commerce. AWS (Amazon Web Services) generates the majority of Amazon's operating income and provides cloud infrastructure to millions of enterprises globally. Amazon Prime membership (200M+ members) drives consumer loyalty through free shipping, Prime Video, and other bundled benefits. Amazon Advertising is the fast-growing, high-margin digital advertising business targeting shoppers with product search ads. | Etsy is the leading online marketplace for handmade, vintage, and craft supply products — connecting 9M+ active sellers with 90M+ active buyers globally. Etsy sellers are individual artisans, small craft businesses, and vintage curators selling unique, one-of-a-kind items that Amazon and Walmart cannot commodity-supply. Etsy generates revenue from seller listing fees (20 cents/listing), transaction fees (6.5% per sale), payment processing, and advertising (Offsite Ads, Etsy Ads). Etsy acquired Depop (fashion resale, youth-focused), Elo7 (Brazilian Etsy analog, later divested), and Reverb (musical instruments resale). |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on AWS ARR growth, operating margin expansion from high-margin advertising and AWS revenue mix, AI infrastructure investment (Trainium chips, Bedrock), and international retail profitability. | Investors focus on Etsy's GMS (gross merchandise sales) growth, seller retention, buyer frequency (active buyers returning), and Depop scale contribution to the overall marketplace. |
- AWS cloud dominance (31% market share): AWS is the world's largest cloud provider generating $100B+ run-rate revenue and majority of Amazon's operating profit
- Amazon Advertising high-margin growth: advertising on Amazon's search results is highly effective (consumers searching to buy vs browsing) — growing to $50B+ revenue at 70%+ gross margin
- Prime ecosystem flywheel: 200M+ Prime members spend 2-3x more than non-Prime customers, subscribe to Prime Video, and prefer Amazon for convenience — creating self-reinforcing loyalty
- Unique product differentiation from Amazon: Etsy's handmade, vintage, and personalized products are items sellers create themselves — Amazon cannot source these commodity because they are made-to-order or one-of-a-kind
- High buyer loyalty for unique/personalized items: customers seeking personalized gifts, custom jewelry, or vintage furniture don't find substitutes on Amazon — Etsy's unique inventory creates loyalty based on product uniqueness
- Global marketplace with asset-light model: Etsy takes 6.5% transaction fees with no inventory ownership or warehousing — pure marketplace economics with attractive gross margins
- AWS competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud: Azure is growing faster than AWS in some periods, partially from Microsoft 365 and Azure AI bundling advantages — cloud market share competition is intense
- Antitrust scrutiny on marketplace practices: Amazon faces FTC investigations regarding marketplace seller practices, self-preferencing private label, and potential forced structural changes
- Retail thin margins: Amazon's first-party retail operates at very thin margins — the retail business's real profit comes from the advertising fees and subscription revenue layered on top
- Amazon Handmade competing for same buyer: Amazon Handmade is a direct competitor targeting the same artisan product category — Amazon's traffic advantage and Prime shipping create meaningful competition
- Post-pandemic GMS normalization: Etsy's GMS surged during COVID (gifting, home crafts, masks) and has since normalized lower — resetting baseline has created post-growth period malaise in financial performance
- Seller experience management: Etsy has raised seller fees multiple times — creating seller pushback and concerns about the creator community that is Etsy's core asset
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