Why does interest rate risk matter so much for solar lease companies?

Solar lease companies like Sunrun and Sunnova finance long-duration contracts (20-25 year streams of customer payments) using capital markets borrowing — when interest rates rise sharply, the cost of that financing increases and the present value of future customer payments decreases, significantly pressuring economics.

Which company is financially stronger?

Sunrun is generally considered to be in better financial condition due to its larger scale and asset base, while Sunnova has faced more acute financial stress and concerns about its debt levels and cash flow trajectory.

What role do batteries play in these companies' strategies?

Battery storage is increasingly important — Sunrun and Sunnova both offer battery subscriptions alongside solar, which increases revenue per customer and is particularly attractive in states like California with grid reliability concerns or in markets like Puerto Rico with frequent outages.

Data as of: September 19, 2026

brimindinvest.com / compare / run-vs-novaLIVE

RUN

Sunrun Inc. · Energy - Residential Solar & Storage

$8.53

-12.96% this month

VERSUS

COMPARE

NOVA

Sunnova Energy International Inc. · Energy - Residential Solar & Storage

N/A

N/A this month

Comparison scoreboard

MIXED SETUP

AI Scorei

RUN 34.7

NOVA N/A

1Y Returni

RUN -47.67%

NOVA N/A

Fwd P/Ei

RUN 8.83

NOVA N/A

Target Up.i

RUN +78.28%

NOVA N/A

Op. Margini

RUN 4.00%

NOVA N/A

Metrics last refreshed: 9/19/2026

Quick take

RUN vs NOVA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside

ShareX LinkedIn Reddit Facebook WhatsApp

RUN (Sunrun) is the larger, more established residential solar company with greater scale but also significant debt, while NOVA (Sunnova) is a smaller competitor that has faced more acute financial stress during the solar industry correction. Both are highly leveraged businesses dependent on affordable financing to make residential solar lease economics work.

RUN vs NOVA compares the two leading U.S. residential solar-as-a-service companies, both facing similar structural challenges from rising interest rates but with different scale, financial stability, and risk profiles.

Live analysis · updated 9/19/2026

RUN and NOVA are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly.

Normalized 1Y performance

RUN

NOVA

Not enough data to chart yet.

Recent returns

RUN

NOVA

Analyst price targets & sentiment

Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.

RUN

Price target range

analyst mean$15.97
current price$8.53

+78.3% upside to analyst mean

NOVA

Price target data unavailable

N/A

Who should consider this stock?

RUN may suit investors who:

Want exposure to the largest U.S. residential solar company with the broadest customer base
Believe residential solar demand will recover as interest rates ease
Value Sunrun's scale advantages in operations and financing over smaller competitors

NOVA may suit investors who:

See potential recovery value in a smaller residential solar company after significant financial stress
Believe Sunnova's dealer network model provides a differentiated growth approach
Are comfortable with significantly higher financial risk in exchange for greater recovery upside

Performance & AI score

Performance & AI score
Metric	RUN	NOVA
AI scorei	34.7	N/A
AI ranki	#1803	N/A
Latest closei	$8.53	N/A
1M returni	-12.96%	N/A
6M returni	-30.20%	N/A
1Y returni	-47.67%	N/A

$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)

How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?

$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
Period	RUN	NOVA
1Y ago	$5.23K (-47.7%) started 2025-09-18	N/A
5Y ago	$1.99K (-80.1%) started 2021-09-20	N/A
10Y ago	$15.74K (+57.4%) started 2016-09-19	N/A

Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.

Valuation & upside potential

Valuation & upside potential
Metric	RUN	NOVA
Market capi	$2.14B	N/A
Trailing P/Ei	6.10	N/A
Forward P/Ei	8.83	N/A
Price/Salesi	N/A	0.00
EV/Revenuei	5.25	N/A
Analyst targeti	$15.97	N/A
Target upsidei	+78.28%	N/A

Growth, profitability & risk

Growth, profitability & risk
Metric	RUN	NOVA
Revenue growthi	52.80%	N/A
Earnings growthi	-60.70%	N/A
EPS growthi	-60.70%	N/A
FCF margini	-56.71%	N/A
Operating margini	4.00%	N/A
Profit margini	11.59%	N/A
ROIC proxyi	-19.86%	N/A
Return on equityi	-19.86%	N/A
Dividend yieldi	N/A	N/A
Payout ratioi	0.00%	N/A
Dividend growth streaki	N/A	N/A
Betai	2.39	0.51
Debt/equityi	292.51	N/A
Current ratioi	1.42	N/A
Quick ratioi	0.63	N/A

Drawdown & downside risk

Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.

1Y risk snapshot

RUN max drawdowni61.37%

NOVA max drawdowniN/A

RUN max wkly dropi42.59%

NOVA max wkly dropiN/A

5Y risk snapshot

RUN max drawdowni90.34%

NOVA max drawdowniN/A

RUN max wkly dropi47.78%

NOVA max wkly dropiN/A

10Y risk snapshot

RUN max drawdowni94.13%

NOVA max drawdowniN/A

RUN max wkly dropi47.78%

NOVA max wkly dropiN/A

Performance metrics by period

Performance metrics by period
Period	Metric	RUN	NOVA
1Y	Growthi	-47.67%	N/A
	CAGRi	-47.69%	N/A
	Volatilityi	78.89%	N/A
	Sharpe ratioi	-0.46	N/A
	Sortino ratioi	-0.61	N/A
	Max drawdowni	61.37%	N/A
	Current drawdowni	60.16%	N/A
	Avg drawdowni	28.49%	N/A
	Ulcer Indexi	34.32%	N/A
	Max daily dropi	35.11%	N/A
	Max wkly dropi	42.59%	N/A
5Y	Growthi	-80.08%	N/A
	CAGRi	-27.61%	N/A
	Volatilityi	90.81%	N/A
	Sharpe ratioi	0.06	N/A
	Sortino ratioi	0.08	N/A
	Max drawdowni	90.34%	N/A
	Current drawdowni	85.46%	N/A
	Avg drawdowni	67.34%	N/A
	Ulcer Indexi	69.74%	N/A
	Max daily dropi	40.04%	N/A
	Max wkly dropi	47.78%	N/A
10Y	Growthi	+57.38%	N/A
	CAGRi	+4.64%	N/A
	Volatilityi	78.53%	N/A
	Sharpe ratioi	0.40	N/A
	Sortino ratioi	0.58	N/A
	Max drawdowni	94.13%	N/A
	Current drawdowni	91.16%	N/A
	Avg drawdowni	50.53%	N/A
	Ulcer Indexi	60.11%	N/A
	Max daily dropi	40.04%	N/A
	Max wkly dropi	47.78%	N/A

AI Prediction Signali

Members only

Next 5 trading days

RUN

+2.8%BUY

NOVA

+1.1%HOLD

Next 30 trading days

RUN

+6.4%BUY

NOVA

+3.2%HOLD

Start Free Trial Log in

ML model trained on historical prices · 14-day free trial · No credit card required

Business comparison

Business comparison
Category	RUN	NOVA
Company	Sunrun Inc.	Sunnova Energy International Inc.
Sector	Technology	Energy - Residential Solar & Storage
Industry	Solar	N/A
Core business	Sunrun is the largest U.S. residential solar and energy storage company, primarily offering solar-as-a-service through leases and power purchase agreements (PPAs) to homeowners, along with battery storage subscriptions.	Sunnova provides residential solar and energy storage services to homeowners through dealer-installer networks, offering leases, loans, and service contracts across the United States and Puerto Rico.
Investor focus	Investors track Sunrun's customer additions, subscriber count growth, net energy value creation, and cash generation as the company works to demonstrate that its long-duration lease contract portfolio generates durable free cash flow.	Investors track Sunnova's customer count growth, cash flow improvement, and financial stability given concerns about its debt load and path to positive cash flow.

RUN strengths

Largest U.S. residential solar company by installed customer base, providing scale in sales, operations, and financing
Long-term lease and PPA contracts (20-25 years) create recurring revenue streams
Battery storage attachment rates provide incremental value and margin with each new customer

NOVA strengths

Dealer-installer network model allows geographic expansion without direct sales force investment
Service contract model creates recurring revenue alongside the solar installation business
Puerto Rico operations provide a unique market where energy reliability concerns drive strong solar+storage adoption

Risks to watch — RUN

Rising interest rates have significantly increased the cost of financing long-term solar lease contracts, pressuring economics
Company carries substantial debt from its long-duration contracted revenue model
Residential solar demand has been softer due to interest rate headwinds and consumer uncertainty

Risks to watch — NOVA

Faced more acute financial stress than Sunrun during the residential solar correction, raising going-concern questions
High leverage relative to its stage of business development creates financial risk
Customer acquisition costs and dealer network management complexity add operational risk

Frequently asked questions

A solar PPA (power purchase agreement) or lease allows homeowners to get solar panels installed at no upfront cost — instead, they either pay a fixed monthly lease payment or pay per kilowatt-hour of solar electricity generated, typically for 20-25 years, while the solar company owns the panels.

Free public comparison

Want deeper AI forecasts?

This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.

Start Free Trial Read Investing Guides

Related comparisons