Why does interest rate risk matter so much for solar lease companies?

Solar lease companies like Sunrun and Sunnova finance long-duration contracts (20-25 year streams of customer payments) using capital markets borrowing — when interest rates rise sharply, the cost of that financing increases and the present value of future customer payments decreases, significantly pressuring economics.

Which company is financially stronger?

Sunrun is generally considered to be in better financial condition due to its larger scale and asset base, while Sunnova has faced more acute financial stress and concerns about its debt levels and cash flow trajectory.

What role do batteries play in these companies' strategies?

Battery storage is increasingly important — Sunrun and Sunnova both offer battery subscriptions alongside solar, which increases revenue per customer and is particularly attractive in states like California with grid reliability concerns or in markets like Puerto Rico with frequent outages.

brimindinvest.com / compare / run-vs-novaLIVE

RUN

Sunrun Inc. · Energy - Residential Solar & Storage

$13.52

+2.66% this month

VERSUS

⟷

COMPARE

NOVA

Sunnova Energy International Inc. · Energy - Residential Solar & Storage

N/A

N/A this month

Scoreboard verdict

Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin

RUN

0

NOVA

0

MIXED SETUP

Comparison scoreboard

MIXED SETUP

AI Score

RUN 35.6

NOVA N/A

1Y Return

RUN +120.55%

NOVA N/A

Fwd P/E

RUN 15.86

NOVA N/A

Target Up.

RUN +41.31%

NOVA N/A

Op. Margin

RUN N/A

NOVA N/A

Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026

Quick take

RUN vs NOVA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside

RUN (Sunrun) is the larger, more established residential solar company with greater scale but also significant debt, while NOVA (Sunnova) is a smaller competitor that has faced more acute financial stress during the solar industry correction. Both are highly leveraged businesses dependent on affordable financing to make residential solar lease economics work.

RUN vs NOVA compares the two leading U.S. residential solar-as-a-service companies, both facing similar structural challenges from rising interest rates but with different scale, financial stability, and risk profiles.

Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026

RUN and NOVA are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly.

Normalized 1Y performance

RUN

NOVA

Not enough data to chart yet.

Recent returns

RUN

NOVA

Analyst price targets & sentiment

RUN · 19 analysts

STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL

Buy (2.0/5.0)

Price target range

analyst low$13.00
analyst high$30.00
analyst mean$19.11
current price$13.52

+41.3% upside to analyst mean

NOVA

Price target data unavailable

N/A

Who should consider this stock?

RUN may suit investors who:

→Want exposure to the largest U.S. residential solar company with the broadest customer base
→Believe residential solar demand will recover as interest rates ease
→Value Sunrun's scale advantages in operations and financing over smaller competitors

NOVA may suit investors who:

→See potential recovery value in a smaller residential solar company after significant financial stress
→Believe Sunnova's dealer network model provides a differentiated growth approach
→Are comfortable with significantly higher financial risk in exchange for greater recovery upside

Performance & AI score

Metric	RUN	NOVA
AI score	35.6	N/A
AI rank	#1571	N/A
Latest close	$13.52	N/A
1M return	+2.66%	N/A
6M return	-20.84%	N/A
1Y return	+120.55%	N/A

$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)

How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?

Period	RUN	NOVA
1Y ago	$22.06K (+120.6%) started 2025-06-18	N/A
5Y ago	$2.56K (-74.4%) started 2021-06-18	N/A
10Y ago	$21.88K (+118.8%) started 2016-06-20	N/A

Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.

Valuation & upside potential

Metric	RUN	NOVA
Market cap	$3.23B	N/A
Trailing P/E	6.35	N/A
Forward P/E	15.86	N/A
Price/Sales	1.02	0.00
EV/Revenue	5.93	N/A
Analyst target	$19.11	N/A
Target upside	+41.31%	N/A

Growth, profitability & risk

Metric	RUN	NOVA
Revenue growth	43.20%	N/A
Earnings growth	214.40%	N/A
EPS growth	+214.40%	N/A
FCF margin	-70.62%	N/A
Operating margin	N/A	N/A
Profit margin	17.88%	N/A
ROIC proxy	-22.74%	N/A
Return on equity	-22.74%	N/A
Dividend yield	0.00%	N/A
Beta	2.30	-0.15
Debt/equity	300.30	N/A
Current ratio	1.45	N/A
Quick ratio	0.68	N/A

Drawdown & downside risk

Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.

1Y risk snapshot

RUN max drawdown47.08%

NOVA max drawdownN/A

RUN max wkly drop42.59%

NOVA max wkly dropN/A

5Y risk snapshot

RUN max drawdown90.34%

NOVA max drawdownN/A

RUN max wkly drop47.78%

NOVA max wkly dropN/A

10Y risk snapshot

RUN max drawdown94.13%

NOVA max drawdownN/A

RUN max wkly drop47.78%

NOVA max wkly dropN/A

Performance metrics by period

Period	Metric	RUN	NOVA
1Y	Growth	+120.55%	N/A
	CAGR	+120.67%	N/A
	Sharpe ratio	1.26	N/A
	Max drawdown	47.08%	N/A
	Max daily drop	35.11%	N/A
	Max wkly drop	42.59%	N/A
5Y	Growth	-74.35%	N/A
	CAGR	-23.83%	N/A
	Sharpe ratio	0.11	N/A
	Max drawdown	90.34%	N/A
	Max daily drop	40.04%	N/A
	Max wkly drop	47.78%	N/A
10Y	Growth	+118.77%	N/A
	CAGR	+8.15%	N/A
	Sharpe ratio	0.44	N/A
	Max drawdown	94.13%	N/A
	Max daily drop	40.04%	N/A
	Max wkly drop	47.78%	N/A

Business comparison

Category	RUN	NOVA
Company	Sunrun Inc.	Sunnova Energy International Inc.
Sector	Energy - Residential Solar & Storage	Energy - Residential Solar & Storage
Industry	N/A	N/A
Core business	Sunrun is the largest U.S. residential solar and energy storage company, primarily offering solar-as-a-service through leases and power purchase agreements (PPAs) to homeowners, along with battery storage subscriptions.	Sunnova provides residential solar and energy storage services to homeowners through dealer-installer networks, offering leases, loans, and service contracts across the United States and Puerto Rico.
Investor focus	Investors track Sunrun's customer additions, subscriber count growth, net energy value creation, and cash generation as the company works to demonstrate that its long-duration lease contract portfolio generates durable free cash flow.	Investors track Sunnova's customer count growth, cash flow improvement, and financial stability given concerns about its debt load and path to positive cash flow.

RUN strengths

→Largest U.S. residential solar company by installed customer base, providing scale in sales, operations, and financing
→Long-term lease and PPA contracts (20-25 years) create recurring revenue streams
→Battery storage attachment rates provide incremental value and margin with each new customer

NOVA strengths

→Dealer-installer network model allows geographic expansion without direct sales force investment
→Service contract model creates recurring revenue alongside the solar installation business
→Puerto Rico operations provide a unique market where energy reliability concerns drive strong solar+storage adoption

Risks to watch — RUN

→Rising interest rates have significantly increased the cost of financing long-term solar lease contracts, pressuring economics
→Company carries substantial debt from its long-duration contracted revenue model
→Residential solar demand has been softer due to interest rate headwinds and consumer uncertainty

Risks to watch — NOVA

→Faced more acute financial stress than Sunrun during the residential solar correction, raising going-concern questions
→High leverage relative to its stage of business development creates financial risk
→Customer acquisition costs and dealer network management complexity add operational risk

Frequently asked questions

A solar PPA (power purchase agreement) or lease allows homeowners to get solar panels installed at no upfront cost — instead, they either pay a fixed monthly lease payment or pay per kilowatt-hour of solar electricity generated, typically for 20-25 years, while the solar company owns the panels.

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RUN

+2.8%BUY

NOVA

+1.1%HOLD

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