NOVA vs ENPH: Sunnova vs Enphase Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Sunnova is a solar financing company that owns the systems it installs under long-term leases and PPAs, while Enphase is a technology company that manufactures microinverter systems sold through installers. Sunnova has more capital intensity and interest rate risk; Enphase has a more asset-light model but faces the same residential solar demand dynamics.
NOVA vs ENPH is solar financing company versus solar hardware technology — Sunnova wins if capital costs decrease and recurring PPA revenue scales profitably; Enphase wins if residential solar volume normalizes and microinverter market share is sustained against SolarEdge.
NOVA and ENPH are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want recurring revenue from owned residential solar systems under long-term PPA and lease contracts
- believe declining interest rates would significantly reduce Sunnova's cost of capital and improve economics
- value battery storage attachment as an increasing per-customer revenue driver
- are comfortable with high capital intensity and longer cash flow breakeven timelines
- prefer asset-light solar hardware technology vs solar asset financing companies
- value Enphase's microinverter technology differentiation and battery integration
- believe residential solar demand will normalize as financing rates ease
- want residential solar exposure without the capital intensity and interest rate sensitivity of solar finance companies
| Metric | NOVA | ENPH |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | N/A | 51.7 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #329 |
| Latest closei | N/A | $30.62 |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NOVA | ENPH |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | N/A | $8.15K (-18.5%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | N/A | $1.7K (-83.0%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | N/A | $266.26K (+2562.6%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NOVA | ENPH |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | N/A | $4.92B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 36.88 |
| Forward P/Ei | N/A | 16.17 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.00 | 3.80 |
| EV/Revenuei | N/A | 3.46 |
| Analyst targeti | N/A | $46.79 |
| Target upsidei | N/A | +25.61% |
| Metric | NOVA | ENPH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | N/A | -19.60% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | -3.50% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | -3.50% |
| FCF margini | N/A | +5.90% |
| Operating margini | N/A | 17.98% |
| Profit margini | N/A | 10.09% |
| ROIC proxyi | N/A | 13.00% |
| Return on equityi | N/A | 13.00% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | N/A | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.59 | 1.65 |
| Debt/equityi | N/A | 51.90 |
| Current ratioi | N/A | 3.45 |
| Quick ratioi | N/A | 2.53 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NOVA | ENPH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | N/A | -18.48% |
| CAGRi | N/A | -18.50% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 82.43% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | 0.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | 0.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 59.42% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 57.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 26.75% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 31.87% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 18.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 26.73% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | N/A | -82.99% |
| CAGRi | N/A | -29.85% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 70.94% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | -0.21 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | -0.31 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 92.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 90.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 60.48% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 66.50% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 25.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 33.19% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | N/A | +2562.61% |
| CAGRi | N/A | +38.86% | |
| Volatilityi | N/A | 77.77% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | N/A | 0.75 | |
| Sortino ratioi | N/A | 1.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | N/A | 92.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | N/A | 90.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | N/A | 40.34% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | N/A | 50.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | N/A | 26.00% | |
| Max wkly dropi | N/A | 42.51% |
| Category | NOVA | ENPH |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Sunnova Energy International Inc. | Enphase Energy, Inc. |
| Sector | Energy | Technology |
| Industry | N/A | Solar |
| Core business | Residential solar and battery storage service company that installs, owns, and operates solar systems for homeowners through long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and lease contracts. Sunnova earns recurring revenue from homeowners for electricity delivered by Sunnova-owned systems. | Manufacturer of microinverter systems and energy management technology for residential and commercial solar. Enphase sells hardware (microinverters, batteries, EV chargers) through solar installers, not directly to homeowners. |
| Investor focus | Customer count growth, recurring revenue per customer, financing cost management, dealer network quality, and path to positive operating cash flow. | US and European microinverter shipment volumes, IQ Battery attach rate, installer inventory normalization, and international market growth. |
- Long-term PPA and lease contracts create predictable recurring revenue streams across a growing customer base
- Sunnova's dealer network installs on its behalf, reducing direct labor cost complexity
- Battery storage attachment rate is high, increasing per-customer system value and resilience product appeal
- Microinverter technology is a genuine product differentiation that justifies premium pricing vs string inverters
- Asset-light business model — Enphase sells hardware rather than owning solar assets, reducing capital intensity vs Sunnova
- Battery integration creates a complete home energy system that drives long-term installer loyalty
- Sunnova's business model requires substantial upfront capital to finance solar system installations before recouping revenue over 20+ years — very capital-intensive
- Interest rate sensitivity is extreme — higher rates increase the cost of capital for solar asset financing dramatically
- Customer defaults and early termination from leases are risks that can create asset value impairment
- Residential solar volume depends heavily on financing rates — Enphase is downstream from the same affordability challenge as Sunnova
- Inventory destocking from over-shipping hurt Enphase's revenue in 2024 — normalization timing has been uncertain
- SolarEdge competition in microinverter and battery markets has increased pricing pressure
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