VALO vs GPRE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
EGY (Vaalco Energy) and GPRE (Green Plains) are entirely different commodity businesses — Vaalco Energy is a small-cap international oil producer with West Africa and North Sea assets priced at Brent crude, while Green Plains is transitioning from a commodity ethanol producer to a sustainable agriculture and energy company through High Protein feed, SAF feedstocks, and carbon capture. Both are exposed to commodity price cycles (Brent oil and corn-ethanol spread respectively) with company-specific transformation stories.
Vaalco vs Green Plains is small-cap international oil producer with Brent premium pricing and African/North Sea asset portfolio (Vaalco Energy's Gabon Etame offshore production, Trans-Globa diversification into Egypt/North Sea, and Brent crude realizations — mature field production management with international political risk) versus commodity ethanol producer transforming into sustainable agriculture and energy company (Green Plains' Ultra-High Protein product rollout, SAF feedstock production, carbon capture development, and IRA policy tailwinds — executing capital-intensive transition from commodity margins to premium product economics) — international oil production versus ethanol biorefinery transformation.
EGY holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. EGY has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+48.40% vs +47.37%), though GPRE has the better forward P/E setup (9.58x vs 33.20x for EGY). EGY leads on both revenue growth (39.50%) and operating margin (47.51%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for EGY (+60.05%) than for GPRE (+19.29%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want small-cap international oil exposure with Brent crude pricing premium relative to U.S. domestic oil E&Ps
- Value Vaalco's diversified international asset base (Gabon, Egypt, North Sea) as providing multiple producing assets that reduce single-asset concentration risk
- See Vaalco's modest valuation as providing attractive oil price upside leverage at a discount to larger, better-known E&P operators
- Believe Green Plains' Ultra-High Protein transformation will materially improve per-unit profitability above commodity ethanol margins, creating a structurally higher-margin business
- See Green Plains' SAF feedstock and carbon capture programs as IRA policy-driven revenue enhancements that will add meaningful income per ethanol gallon produced
- Are patient investors willing to wait for the 2-4 year transformation timeline while Green Plains converts all facilities to high-protein production and develops SAF/carbon market offtake agreements
| Metric | EGY | GPRE |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.3 | 25.6 |
| AI ranki | #463 | #2753 |
| Latest closei | $6.06 | $15.15 |
| 1M returni | +3.27% | -5.49% |
| 6M returni | -0.95% | -2.26% |
| 1Y returni | +48.40% | +47.37% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | EGY | GPRE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.64K (+56.4%) started 2025-09-18 | $14.74K (+47.4%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $40.51K (+305.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $4.54K (-54.6%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $117.68K (+1076.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $7.03K (-29.7%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | EGY | GPRE |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $649.56M | $1.05B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 8.96 |
| Forward P/Ei | 33.20 | 9.58 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.46 | 0.76 |
| Analyst targeti | $9.88 | $17.86 |
| Target upsidei | +60.05% | +19.29% |
| Metric | EGY | GPRE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 39.50% | -19.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 389.60% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +389.60% | N/A |
| FCF margini | -27.63% | +1.80% |
| Operating margini | 47.51% | 15.21% |
| Profit margini | -31.11% | 6.78% |
| ROIC proxyi | -24.40% | 15.47% |
| Return on equityi | -24.40% | 15.47% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.17% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 92.59% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.11 | 1.18 |
| Debt/equityi | 68.83 | 63.07 |
| Current ratioi | 0.44 | 1.99 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.30 | 1.27 |
Over the past year, EGY and GPRE have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.25), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | EGY | GPRE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +48.40% | +47.37% |
| CAGRi | +48.44% | +47.41% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.59% | 61.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.00 | 0.87 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.51 | 1.27 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.29% | 26.99% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.19% | 21.22% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.59% | 11.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.69% | 13.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.30% | 14.72% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.58% | 18.02% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +213.28% | -54.60% |
| CAGRi | +25.69% | -14.63% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.77% | 60.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.61 | -0.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.89 | -0.06 | |
| Max drawdowni | 58.81% | 92.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.10% | 65.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 33.37% | 50.09% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.17% | 55.89% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.53% | 20.39% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.80% | 28.65% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +809.99% | -34.72% |
| CAGRi | +24.72% | -4.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 64.79% | 61.29% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.59 | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.91 | 0.24 | |
| Max drawdowni | 78.20% | 92.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 12.10% | 65.46% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 34.32% | 43.76% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 38.58% | 49.58% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.23% | 43.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 41.73% | 54.50% |
| Category | EGY | GPRE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Vaalco Energy, Inc. | Green Plains Inc. |
| Sector | Energy | Basic Materials |
| Industry | Oil & Gas E&P | Chemicals |
| Core business | Vaalco Energy is a small-cap independent oil and gas producer operating internationally, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaalco's core assets include: Etame Marin block (Gabon, offshore) — the company's flagship producing asset with multiple platforms and approximately 20,000+ BOE/day of production; Cossette/Hardbargain blocks (Equatorial Guinea) — additional West Africa offshore production; Egypt operations — recent entry into Egyptian E&P through acquisition; and North Sea (UK and Canada) following the Trans-Globe Energy acquisition in 2022. Vaalco sells its crude oil on the spot market to international buyers, with pricing based on Brent crude (the international benchmark, generally $3-6/barrel above WTI). | Green Plains is the second-largest U.S. corn ethanol producer, operating approximately 12 ethanol production facilities with a total capacity of approximately 1.1 billion gallons per year. Green Plains is undergoing a strategic transformation from a pure-play commodity ethanol producer to a diversified sustainable agriculture and energy company: high-protein feed (Ultra-High Protein product — a patented process separating corn protein into high-value animal and aquaculture feed); sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) feedstock production from corn oil extraction; carbon capture and sequestration (capturing CO2 from fermentation for underground storage, generating carbon credits); and biorefinery energy optimization. Green Plains is converting all its facilities to produce high-protein feed alongside ethanol. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Vaalco's Gabon production rates and reservoir performance, capital program (infill drilling, development wells), Brent crude oil price realizations, operating costs (LOE per BOE internationally is typically higher than U.S. onshore), and the balance sheet. | Investors track Green Plains' ethanol crush margin (ethanol price minus corn cost per gallon — the primary commodity P&L driver), Ultra-High Protein product rollout progress, carbon capture project development, and the timeline for meaningful high-value product revenue replacing commodity ethanol margins. |
- Brent crude pricing provides a premium to WTI-priced U.S. producers — Vaalco's African and North Sea production is priced at Brent, which trades $3-8/barrel above WTI; this pricing premium improves revenue per barrel relative to domestic U.S. producers
- Gabon Etame field is a mature, producing asset with established infrastructure — the Etame platform complex has been producing since 2002; infrastructure is in place; cash operating costs are known; production profile is relatively predictable from existing wells
- Trans-Globe acquisition added Egypt and North Sea exposure at reasonable valuations — diversifying into multiple international basins reduces dependence on Gabon's single-field risk
- Ultra-High Protein product commands significant per-unit premium over commodity distillers grains — Green Plains' proprietary fermentation modification and protein separation technology produces UHP feed with 50%+ protein content versus 27-30% for standard distillers grains; UHP sells at 3-5x the price of commodity distillers dried grains
- SAF feedstock (corn oil) production qualifies for Inflation Reduction Act blenders credits — corn oil extracted from ethanol production can be converted to sustainable aviation fuel; SAF production incentives under IRA create additional revenue streams per gallon of corn oil sold to SAF producers
- Carbon capture at ethanol plants is particularly well-suited — fermentation produces nearly pure CO2 (no combustion gases); capturing pure CO2 from ethanol fermentation is less expensive than capturing from industrial combustion; Green Plains can potentially sequester or sell CO2 with attractive economics
- International E&P faces political and regulatory risk that U.S. onshore operators don't — Gabon (West Africa) has had government changes and oil regulatory shifts; Equatorial Guinea requires ongoing government relations management; PSC (production sharing contract) terms can be renegotiated
- Small-cap E&P lacks the financial flexibility of larger operators — Vaalco has limited access to capital markets; any operational setback (well failure, production decline) requires careful capital management
- Mature Gabon field production decline requires continuous investment to maintain output — the Etame field has been producing for 20+ years; maintaining plateau production requires infill drilling and enhanced recovery investment
- Commodity ethanol crush margins are highly volatile and can turn negative — the corn-ethanol spread fluctuates based on corn prices, ethanol demand, and competitor production levels; Green Plains' base earnings track this volatile commodity spread before any UHP premium
- Ultra-High Protein transition requires capital investment across all facilities and customer development — Green Plains is retrofitting all ethanol plants with protein separation equipment; the capital investment is substantial; finding customers for significantly more high-protein animal feed takes time as the market absorbs new supply
- SAF and carbon market development depends on policy continuation — IRA blenders credits and California LCFS (Low Carbon Fuel Standard) prices are policy-driven; any policy change reduces economics; SAF market development depends on airline purchasing commitments that are voluntary
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