What is Green Plains' Ultra-High Protein product?

Standard distillers grains: the protein content of standard dried distillers grains (DDG) from conventional ethanol production is approximately 27-30% protein by weight; DDG is a commodity animal feed product sold into cattle, hog, and poultry feed markets; DDG prices are approximately $150-200/ton. Green Plains' Ultra-High Protein (UHP) product: Green Plains developed and patented a modification to the fermentation and protein separation process that produces a much higher protein concentration feed product; UHP contains 50-60% protein by weight; the higher protein concentration and unique amino acid profile makes UHP valuable for aquaculture (salmon, shrimp — require high-protein, low-carbohydrate feeds), poultry, and pet food applications. Pricing premium: UHP sells at approximately $600-800+/ton versus $150-200/ton for commodity DDG; this 3-5x price premium per ton is transformational for Green Plains' byproduct economics if UHP can be produced and sold at scale. The challenge: Green Plains must: (1) retrofit each ethanol plant with the fermentation modification and protein separation equipment (~$25-40M per plant); (2) develop customer relationships in aquaculture, premium pet food, and specialty poultry markets that currently buy fish meal (at $1,400-1,800/ton); UHP must displace existing fish meal, soy protein, and other high-protein feeds with a new product that requires customer qualification testing; this takes time even if the product's economics are compelling.

What are Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) and how do they affect Vaalco?

PSC structure: in most international oil producing countries (West Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia), oil companies don't own the oil in the ground; instead, the national government retains ownership of oil resources; foreign oil companies enter Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) with the government and national oil company that define how oil production is allocated between the government and the foreign company. Typical PSC mechanics: the foreign company agrees to invest (drilling, infrastructure) to develop the oil field; initially, the foreign company recovers its costs from production (cost recovery oil — the company keeps enough oil to recover its investments); after cost recovery, the remaining profit oil is split between the government (typically 60-80%) and the foreign company (20-40%) per a contractual split; as oil prices rise or the company's investment is fully recovered, the government's profit oil share often increases (a 'sliding scale' feature that takes more for the government at high oil prices). Impact on Vaalco: Vaalco's Gabon Etame block operates under a PSC with the Gabonese government; as Vaalco has recovered historical costs, more production shifts to the government's profit oil share; Vaalco's net production (after government take) may be less than gross field production; understanding PSC terms is critical to forecasting Vaalco's actual net production and revenue. PSC renegotiation risk: when oil prices rise significantly, governments sometimes press for PSC renegotiation on better government terms; this is a geopolitical risk specific to international E&P companies.

What is sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and why does Green Plains care about it?

SAF definition: sustainable aviation fuel is jet fuel produced from non-petroleum feedstocks (corn oil, used cooking oil, agricultural waste, wood waste) that has a significantly lower lifecycle carbon intensity than conventional petroleum jet fuel; SAF can be blended with conventional jet fuel up to 50% blend; SAF is chemically identical to petroleum jet fuel (drop-in fuel) and requires no aircraft modifications. Why airlines want SAF: the airline industry faces increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions (CORSIA — Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation — and various national mandates); SAF is the primary tool available to reduce aviation emissions because battery electric aircraft aren't viable for commercial routes; airlines have committed to purchasing SAF but production capacity is far below demand. SAF feedstock economics for Green Plains: Green Plains extracts approximately 0.6-0.8 pounds of corn oil per bushel of corn processed; this corn oil (currently sold as low-grade feed and biofuel feedstock at $0.45-0.55/pound) can potentially be sold to SAF producers at premium prices if it meets ISCC sustainability certification requirements; the Inflation Reduction Act created a sustainable aviation fuel tax credit ($1.25-1.75/gallon of SAF produced, depending on lifecycle carbon intensity); SAF producers can afford to pay more for corn oil feedstock if the final SAF product qualifies for IRA credits. The opportunity for Green Plains: converting its corn oil from commodity feed use to SAF feedstock qualification and developing offtake agreements with SAF refineries could add meaningful per-gallon income on top of commodity ethanol and UHP margins.

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EGY

Vaalco Energy, Inc. · Energy - International Oil & Gas E&P

$5.58

-5.68% this month

VERSUS

⟷

COMPARE

GPRE

Green Plains Inc. · Energy - Ethanol Production & Sustainable Fuels

$14.82

-8.52% this month

Scoreboard verdict

Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin

EGY

2

GPRE

2

MIXED SETUP

Comparison scoreboard

MIXED SETUP

AI Score

EGY ✓40.3

GPRE 26.2

1Y Return

EGY +50.79%

GPRE ✓+162.30%

Fwd P/E

EGY 16.66

GPRE ✓9.70

Target Up.

EGY ✓+72.04%

GPRE +11.82%

Op. Margin

EGY N/A

GPRE N/A

Metrics last refreshed: 6/22/2026

Quick take

VALO vs GPRE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside

EGY (Vaalco Energy) and GPRE (Green Plains) are entirely different commodity businesses — Vaalco Energy is a small-cap international oil producer with West Africa and North Sea assets priced at Brent crude, while Green Plains is transitioning from a commodity ethanol producer to a sustainable agriculture and energy company through High Protein feed, SAF feedstocks, and carbon capture. Both are exposed to commodity price cycles (Brent oil and corn-ethanol spread respectively) with company-specific transformation stories.

Vaalco vs Green Plains is small-cap international oil producer with Brent premium pricing and African/North Sea asset portfolio (Vaalco Energy's Gabon Etame offshore production, Trans-Globa diversification into Egypt/North Sea, and Brent crude realizations — mature field production management with international political risk) versus commodity ethanol producer transforming into sustainable agriculture and energy company (Green Plains' Ultra-High Protein product rollout, SAF feedstock production, carbon capture development, and IRA policy tailwinds — executing capital-intensive transition from commodity margins to premium product economics) — international oil production versus ethanol biorefinery transformation.

Live analysis · updated 6/22/2026

EGY and GPRE are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. GPRE leads on both 1-year return (+162.30%) and forward P/E (9.70x vs 16.66x for EGY), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for EGY (+72.04%) than for GPRE (+11.82%).

Normalized 1Y performance

EGY

GPRE

Recent returns

EGY

GPRE

Analyst price targets & sentiment

EGY · 3 analysts

STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL

Strong Buy (1.0/5.0)

Price target range

analyst low$9.00
analyst high$10.50
analyst mean$9.60
current price$5.58

+72.0% upside to analyst mean

GPRE · 7 analysts

STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL

Buy (2.1/5.0)

Price target range

analyst low$10.00
analyst high$20.00
analyst mean$16.57
current price$14.82

+11.8% upside to analyst mean

Who should consider this stock?

EGY may suit investors who:

→Want small-cap international oil exposure with Brent crude pricing premium relative to U.S. domestic oil E&Ps
→Value Vaalco's diversified international asset base (Gabon, Egypt, North Sea) as providing multiple producing assets that reduce single-asset concentration risk
→See Vaalco's modest valuation as providing attractive oil price upside leverage at a discount to larger, better-known E&P operators

GPRE may suit investors who:

→Believe Green Plains' Ultra-High Protein transformation will materially improve per-unit profitability above commodity ethanol margins, creating a structurally higher-margin business
→See Green Plains' SAF feedstock and carbon capture programs as IRA policy-driven revenue enhancements that will add meaningful income per ethanol gallon produced
→Are patient investors willing to wait for the 2-4 year transformation timeline while Green Plains converts all facilities to high-protein production and develops SAF/carbon market offtake agreements

Performance & AI score

Metric	EGY	GPRE
AI score	40.3	26.2
AI rank	#1066	#2639
Latest close	$5.58	$14.82
1M return	-5.68%	-8.52%
6M return	+65.55%	+53.89%
1Y return	+50.79%	+162.30%

$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)

How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?

Period	EGY	GPRE
1Y ago	$15.98K (+59.8%) started 2025-06-18	$26.23K (+162.3%) started 2025-06-18
5Y ago	$28.31K (+183.1%) started 2021-06-18	$4.73K (-52.7%) started 2021-06-18
10Y ago	$88.02K (+780.2%) started 2016-06-20	$9.45K (-5.5%) started 2016-06-20

Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.

Valuation & upside potential

Metric	EGY	GPRE
Market cap	$597.13M	$1.04B
Trailing P/E	N/A	N/A
Forward P/E	16.66	9.70
Price/Sales	1.92	0.54
EV/Revenue	2.48	0.78
Analyst target	$9.60	$16.57
Target upside	+72.04%	+11.82%

Growth, profitability & risk

Metric	EGY	GPRE
Revenue growth	-43.30%	-25.90%
Earnings growth	N/A	N/A
EPS growth	N/A	N/A
FCF margin	-24.60%	-0.25%
Operating margin	N/A	N/A
Profit margin	-45.86%	-0.80%
ROIC proxy	-33.66%	-1.86%
Return on equity	-33.66%	-1.86%
Dividend yield	4.48%	0.00%
Beta	0.07	1.19
Debt/equity	69.68	70.64
Current ratio	0.51	1.71
Quick ratio	0.37	0.90

Drawdown & downside risk

Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.

1Y risk snapshot

EGY max drawdown20.89%

GPRE max drawdown21.17%

EGY max wkly drop13.58%

GPRE max wkly drop18.02%

5Y risk snapshot

EGY max drawdown58.81%

GPRE max drawdown92.48%

EGY max wkly drop26.02%

GPRE max wkly drop28.65%

10Y risk snapshot

EGY max drawdown78.20%

GPRE max drawdown92.48%

EGY max wkly drop41.73%

GPRE max wkly drop54.50%

Performance metrics by period

Period	Metric	EGY	GPRE
1Y	Growth	+50.79%	+162.30%
	CAGR	+50.83%	+162.47%
	Sharpe ratio	1.04	1.72
	Max drawdown	20.89%	21.17%
	Max daily drop	11.30%	14.72%
	Max wkly drop	13.58%	18.02%
5Y	Growth	+121.81%	-52.67%
	CAGR	+17.28%	-13.90%
	Sharpe ratio	0.49	-0.02
	Max drawdown	58.81%	92.48%
	Max daily drop	16.53%	20.39%
	Max wkly drop	26.02%	28.65%
10Y	Growth	+589.60%	-12.69%
	CAGR	+21.32%	-1.35%
	Sharpe ratio	0.55	0.21
	Max drawdown	78.20%	92.48%
	Max daily drop	26.23%	43.15%
	Max wkly drop	41.73%	54.50%

Business comparison

Category	EGY	GPRE
Company	Vaalco Energy, Inc.	Green Plains Inc.
Sector	Energy - International Oil & Gas E&P	Energy - Ethanol Production & Sustainable Fuels
Industry	N/A	N/A
Core business	Vaalco Energy is a small-cap independent oil and gas producer operating internationally, primarily in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaalco's core assets include: Etame Marin block (Gabon, offshore) — the company's flagship producing asset with multiple platforms and approximately 20,000+ BOE/day of production; Cossette/Hardbargain blocks (Equatorial Guinea) — additional West Africa offshore production; Egypt operations — recent entry into Egyptian E&P through acquisition; and North Sea (UK and Canada) following the Trans-Globe Energy acquisition in 2022. Vaalco sells its crude oil on the spot market to international buyers, with pricing based on Brent crude (the international benchmark, generally $3-6/barrel above WTI).	Green Plains is the second-largest U.S. corn ethanol producer, operating approximately 12 ethanol production facilities with a total capacity of approximately 1.1 billion gallons per year. Green Plains is undergoing a strategic transformation from a pure-play commodity ethanol producer to a diversified sustainable agriculture and energy company: high-protein feed (Ultra-High Protein product — a patented process separating corn protein into high-value animal and aquaculture feed); sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) feedstock production from corn oil extraction; carbon capture and sequestration (capturing CO2 from fermentation for underground storage, generating carbon credits); and biorefinery energy optimization. Green Plains is converting all its facilities to produce high-protein feed alongside ethanol.
Investor focus	Investors track Vaalco's Gabon production rates and reservoir performance, capital program (infill drilling, development wells), Brent crude oil price realizations, operating costs (LOE per BOE internationally is typically higher than U.S. onshore), and the balance sheet.	Investors track Green Plains' ethanol crush margin (ethanol price minus corn cost per gallon — the primary commodity P&L driver), Ultra-High Protein product rollout progress, carbon capture project development, and the timeline for meaningful high-value product revenue replacing commodity ethanol margins.

EGY strengths

→Brent crude pricing provides a premium to WTI-priced U.S. producers — Vaalco's African and North Sea production is priced at Brent, which trades $3-8/barrel above WTI; this pricing premium improves revenue per barrel relative to domestic U.S. producers
→Gabon Etame field is a mature, producing asset with established infrastructure — the Etame platform complex has been producing since 2002; infrastructure is in place; cash operating costs are known; production profile is relatively predictable from existing wells
→Trans-Globe acquisition added Egypt and North Sea exposure at reasonable valuations — diversifying into multiple international basins reduces dependence on Gabon's single-field risk

GPRE strengths

→Ultra-High Protein product commands significant per-unit premium over commodity distillers grains — Green Plains' proprietary fermentation modification and protein separation technology produces UHP feed with 50%+ protein content versus 27-30% for standard distillers grains; UHP sells at 3-5x the price of commodity distillers dried grains
→SAF feedstock (corn oil) production qualifies for Inflation Reduction Act blenders credits — corn oil extracted from ethanol production can be converted to sustainable aviation fuel; SAF production incentives under IRA create additional revenue streams per gallon of corn oil sold to SAF producers
→Carbon capture at ethanol plants is particularly well-suited — fermentation produces nearly pure CO2 (no combustion gases); capturing pure CO2 from ethanol fermentation is less expensive than capturing from industrial combustion; Green Plains can potentially sequester or sell CO2 with attractive economics

Risks to watch — EGY

→International E&P faces political and regulatory risk that U.S. onshore operators don't — Gabon (West Africa) has had government changes and oil regulatory shifts; Equatorial Guinea requires ongoing government relations management; PSC (production sharing contract) terms can be renegotiated
→Small-cap E&P lacks the financial flexibility of larger operators — Vaalco has limited access to capital markets; any operational setback (well failure, production decline) requires careful capital management
→Mature Gabon field production decline requires continuous investment to maintain output — the Etame field has been producing for 20+ years; maintaining plateau production requires infill drilling and enhanced recovery investment

Risks to watch — GPRE

→Commodity ethanol crush margins are highly volatile and can turn negative — the corn-ethanol spread fluctuates based on corn prices, ethanol demand, and competitor production levels; Green Plains' base earnings track this volatile commodity spread before any UHP premium
→Ultra-High Protein transition requires capital investment across all facilities and customer development — Green Plains is retrofitting all ethanol plants with protein separation equipment; the capital investment is substantial; finding customers for significantly more high-protein animal feed takes time as the market absorbs new supply
→SAF and carbon market development depends on policy continuation — IRA blenders credits and California LCFS (Low Carbon Fuel Standard) prices are policy-driven; any policy change reduces economics; SAF market development depends on airline purchasing commitments that are voluntary

Frequently asked questions

Corn ethanol production: corn kernels are ground and mixed with water and enzymes; the starch in corn is converted to sugars by the enzymes; yeast ferments the sugars to ethanol (grain alcohol); the ethanol is distilled to approximately 190 proof (95% pure ethanol); anhydrous ethanol (200 proof) is produced by removing the remaining water with a molecular sieve; the ethanol is denatured (small amount of gasoline added to make it undrinkable) and blended with gasoline at up to 10% (E10) or 85% (E85 for flex-fuel vehicles). Byproducts: distillers grains (the non-starch parts of the corn — protein, fiber, fat, remaining starch) are sold as livestock feed; corn oil is separated from the distillers grains and sold for feed or fuel; CO2 is released during fermentation (increasingly captured for industrial uses or sequestration). Crush margin: the ethanol production profit margin is called the 'crush margin' by analogy to soybean crush (soybeans into soybean meal and oil); crush margin = (ethanol price × gallons per bushel of corn + distillers grain value per bushel + corn oil value per bushel) minus (corn price per bushel + natural gas for processing + operating costs); crush margins are highly volatile — sometimes $0.40+/gallon of ethanol; sometimes negative; volatility comes from the supply/demand of both corn (harvests, exports) and ethanol (blending demand, competing fuel prices).

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+1.1%HOLD

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