MPC vs PSX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MPC (Marathon Petroleum) is the largest pure-play U.S. independent refiner focused entirely on maximizing refining margin capture, while PSX (Phillips 66) is a diversified downstream energy company spanning refining, midstream, and chemicals. Marathon provides maximum exposure to refining cycles while Phillips 66 offers more diversified downstream earnings.
MPC vs PSX is the refining-pure-play versus diversified-downstream comparison — Marathon's concentrated refining margin leverage versus Phillips 66's smoothed earnings across refining, midstream pipelines, and chemicals.
MPC holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MPC leads on both 1-year return (+128.48%) and forward P/E quality (11.45x vs 11.79x for PSX), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. MPC leads on both revenue growth (53.70%) and operating margin (13.56%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: -12.00% for MPC and -9.02% for PSX.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want pure-play U.S. refining exposure as the largest independent refiner with maximum leverage to refining margin cycles
- Value Marathon's aggressive capital return program funded by strong refining cash flows
- Prefer the simplicity of a pure refiner business model versus the complexity of Phillips 66's diversified downstream structure
- Want diversified downstream energy exposure across refining, midstream, and chemicals with fee-based midstream providing more stable earnings
- Value CPChem's world-scale petrochemical operations as an additional earnings source beyond pure refining margin cycles
- Prefer more diversified downstream exposure that reduces peak refining cycle upside but also limits downside in poor refining margin environments
| Metric | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 63.0 | 57.1 |
| AI ranki | #109 | #231 |
| Latest closei | $421.96 | $274.21 |
| 1M returni | +15.22% | +12.62% |
| 6M returni | +78.96% | +53.76% |
| 1Y returni | +128.48% | +105.96% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $22.8K (+128.0%) started 2025-09-18 | $20.88K (+108.8%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $87.64K (+776.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $57.37K (+473.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $172.62K (+1626.2%) started 2016-09-19 | $70.75K (+607.5%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $103.58B | $97.83B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 12.79 | 13.93 |
| Forward P/Ei | 11.45 | 11.79 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.89 | 0.76 |
| Analyst targeti | $324.56 | $222.00 |
| Target upsidei | -12.00% | -9.02% |
| Metric | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 53.70% | 53.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 348.00% | 344.90% |
| EPS growthi | +348.00% | +344.90% |
| FCF margini | +6.00% | +2.99% |
| Operating margini | 13.56% | 8.53% |
| Profit margini | 5.55% | 4.66% |
| ROIC proxyi | 42.10% | 23.45% |
| Return on equityi | 42.10% | 23.45% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.08% | 2.08% |
| Payout ratioi | 13.56% | 28.20% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.51 | 0.69 |
| Debt/equityi | 133.33 | 62.88 |
| Current ratioi | 1.25 | 1.32 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.86 | 0.86 |
Over the past year, MPC and PSX have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.85), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +128.05% | +108.76% |
| CAGRi | +128.25% | +108.93% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.41% | 31.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.45 | 2.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.87 | 3.90 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.74% | 17.28% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.63% | 4.09% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.68% | 5.79% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.13% | 6.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.18% | 9.97% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +703.01% | +392.01% |
| CAGRi | +51.76% | +37.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 33.15% | 32.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.29 | 1.00 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.88 | 1.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.75% | 44.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.97% | 13.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.12% | 16.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.06% | 13.61% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.43% | 25.32% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1165.08% | +376.81% |
| CAGRi | +28.90% | +16.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.06% | 35.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.73 | 0.49 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.04 | 0.71 | |
| Max drawdowni | 79.67% | 64.21% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.12% | 17.14% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.91% | 21.94% | |
| Max daily dropi | 27.01% | 15.87% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 46.59% | 35.54% |
| Category | MPC | PSX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | Phillips 66 |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing |
| Core business | Marathon Petroleum is the largest U.S. independent oil refiner, operating 13 refineries with approximately 3 million barrels per day of capacity, focused entirely on refining and marketing, after selling its Speedway convenience store chain and its midstream MPC/MPLX stake. | Phillips 66 is a diversified downstream energy company operating refining (approximately 1.9 million bpd capacity), midstream (NGL pipelines and terminals), chemicals (CPChem, a 50/50 joint venture with Chevron), and marketing and specialties segments. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Marathon's refining margins (crack spread), refinery utilization rates, capital return to shareholders (buybacks and dividends), and the company's balance sheet strength for opportunistic shareholder returns. | Investors track Phillips 66's refining margin performance, midstream fee-based earnings stability, CPChem chemical earnings cycle, and capital return as the company balances investment across its diversified downstream portfolio. |
- Largest U.S. independent refiner with geographic diversity across the Gulf Coast, Midwest, and both coasts provides exposure to regional refined product markets
- Simplified business model after selling Speedway — pure-play refiner focused entirely on crude processing margins
- Aggressive capital return philosophy — Marathon has returned billions in buybacks and dividends as refining margins improved
- Diversified downstream portfolio — refining, midstream, and chemicals provides multiple earnings streams with different cyclical drivers, reducing pure refining cycle volatility
- CPChem joint venture with Chevron has world-scale petrochemical facilities providing earnings exposure to chemical commodity cycles
- Midstream segment's fee-based earnings provide more predictable income than purely margin-dependent refining
- Refining margins (crack spreads) are highly cyclical — the spread between crude oil input cost and refined product output price (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) is driven by seasonal demand and crude supply dynamics
- Long-term EV adoption trend will reduce gasoline demand over decades, though the pace remains uncertain
- Refinery capacity investment decisions must balance near-term cash generation against long-term demand uncertainty from energy transition
- Diversification means Phillips 66 benefits less than pure-play refiners (Marathon) when refining margins are exceptionally strong
- CPChem chemicals exposure means PSX can suffer in years when both refining and chemicals margins are weak simultaneously
- Complex business structure with multiple segments and a JV makes financial analysis more complex than Marathon's simpler pure-refiner model
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