XOM vs CVX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ExxonMobil and Chevron are the two US oil supermajors — the largest American oil and gas companies. Both operate globally with Permian Basin as a key domestic production area. ExxonMobil's Guyana position and Pioneer acquisition give it a stronger near-term production growth story. Chevron faces the Hess/Guyana dispute delay and Tengiz execution risk. Both pay substantial dividends and are among the most important energy income investments in the US market.
XOM vs CVX is the world's largest US oil company with Guyana low-cost production, Permian dominance post-Pioneer, and chemical business diversification (ExxonMobil) versus the second-largest US supermajor with Permian growth and Tengiz expansion facing Hess/Guyana acquisition delay (Chevron) — energy supermajor comparison within a fundamentally oil-price-driven sector.
XOM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. XOM leads on both 1-year return (+42.50%) and forward P/E quality (14.72x vs 15.25x for CVX), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. CVX leads on both revenue growth (53.50%) and operating margin (21.87%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +8.28% for XOM and +8.14% for CVX.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the largest US integrated oil company with Guyana deepwater low-cost production and Permian dominance from Pioneer acquisition giving the strongest near-term production growth
- value ExxonMobil's chemical business diversification providing non-fuel revenue exposure across industrial and consumer product markets
- want the largest-scale energy infrastructure position with dividend payments maintained through oil price cycles
- are comfortable with oil price sensitivity, energy transition long-term demand risk, and Pioneer integration execution
- prefer Chevron's 37+ consecutive dividend increase track record — Dividend Aristocrat status in energy sector with strong commitment to shareholder returns
- value Chevron's Permian Basin production scale with competitive low-cost extraction in the most productive US oil basin
- want energy supermajor exposure with Tengiz completion as a potential production growth catalyst when the Kazakhstan expansion comes online
- are comfortable with Hess/Guyana acquisition resolution uncertainty, Tengiz delay history, and similar oil price sensitivity to ExxonMobil
| Metric | XOM | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.6 | 54.7 |
| AI ranki | #252 | #244 |
| Latest closei | $159.47 | $208.60 |
| 1M returni | +5.17% | +11.90% |
| 6M returni | +5.78% | +9.85% |
| 1Y returni | +42.50% | +31.98% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | XOM | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.19K (+41.9%) started 2025-09-04 | $13.23K (+32.3%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $38.85K (+288.5%) started 2021-09-07 | $29.37K (+193.7%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $43.16K (+331.6%) started 2016-09-06 | $46.23K (+362.3%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | XOM | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $644.38B | $395.97B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 20.17 | 19.41 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.72 | 15.25 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.32 | 1.24 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.89 | 2.06 |
| Analyst targeti | $169.68 | $218.29 |
| Target upsidei | +8.28% | +8.14% |
| Metric | XOM | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 44.10% | 53.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 112.80% | 321.90% |
| EPS growthi | +112.80% | +321.90% |
| FCF margini | +5.73% | +10.48% |
| Operating margini | 15.86% | 21.87% |
| Profit margini | 9.07% | 9.83% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.58% | 12.23% |
| Return on equityi | 12.58% | 12.23% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.63% | 3.56% |
| Betai | 0.17 | 0.49 |
| Debt/equityi | 15.92 | 18.96 |
| Current ratioi | 1.14 | 1.25 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 0.84 |
Over the past year, XOM and CVX have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.84), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | XOM | CVX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +41.88% | +32.28% |
| CAGRi | +41.95% | +32.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.65% | 23.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.32 | 1.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.95 | 1.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.65% | 21.53% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.00% | 1.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.02% | 6.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.41% | 8.10% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.23% | 4.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.01% | 7.53% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +235.41% | +149.88% |
| CAGRi | +27.43% | +20.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.64% | 25.20% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.88 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.27 | 0.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.65% | 24.95% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.00% | 1.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.19% | 10.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.85% | 11.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.89% | 8.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.35% | 18.74% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +167.04% | +195.44% |
| CAGRi | +10.33% | +11.45% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.36% | 29.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.33 | 0.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.47 | 0.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.01% | 55.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.00% | 1.50% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.12% | 10.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.16% | 13.54% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.22% | 22.12% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.80% | 33.70% |
| Category | XOM | CVX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Exxon Mobil Corporation | Chevron Corporation |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Integrated | Oil & Gas Integrated |
| Core business | ExxonMobil is the largest US oil and gas company, producing crude oil and natural gas globally, refining petroleum into fuels and chemicals, and increasingly investing in low-carbon technologies (carbon capture, hydrogen, lithium). ExxonMobil's Guyana deepwater oil discoveries and Permian Basin operations are its two primary growth engines. The Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition ($60B) in 2024 significantly expanded ExxonMobil's Permian Basin position. ExxonMobil also operates the world's most profitable chemical business (ExxonMobil Chemical) alongside its energy operations. | Chevron is the second-largest US oil and gas company, producing oil and natural gas globally with major operations in the Permian Basin, Kazakhstan (Tengiz expansion), and international offshore. Chevron's Hess Corporation acquisition ($53B) was blocked by Exxon claiming right of first refusal over Hess's Guyana assets — a significant strategic setback that delays Chevron's access to Guyana's low-cost production. Chevron's integrated business combines upstream production, downstream refining, and petrochemicals. |
| Investor focus | Investors track oil price sensitivity (Brent crude primarily), production volume growth from Guyana and Permian, upstream operating margin, and dividend sustainability through oil price cycles. | Investors track Permian Basin production growth, Tengiz project progress (Kazakhstan), the Hess acquisition resolution, dividend sustainability, and share buyback capacity at current oil prices. |
- Guyana offshore deepwater production is among the lowest-cost new oil supply globally — Exxon's Stabroek block in Guyana can produce at very low breakeven costs
- Pioneer acquisition created the largest Permian Basin operator — Exxon's scale in the Permian enables manufacturing-style efficiency and reduced well costs
- Chemical business provides non-oil revenue diversification — chemical demand grows with industrial and consumer product growth regardless of fuel prices
- Permian Basin position is among the largest and lowest-cost — Chevron's scale in the Permian provides similar manufacturing-efficiency advantages to ExxonMobil's post-Pioneer position
- Strong dividend track record — 37+ consecutive years of dividend increases making Chevron a Dividend Aristocrat in the energy sector
- Tengiz Field Kazakhstan expansion is a major long-term production growth project when completed
- Oil price volatility is the primary risk — ExxonMobil's profitability and dividends depend on oil remaining above a certain price level
- Energy transition long-term demand uncertainty — electric vehicles reduce gasoline demand; Exxon's core product faces long-term secular demand headwinds
- Pioneer integration: absorbing a $60B acquisition while maintaining operational excellence and realizing synergies is multi-year execution work
- Hess acquisition dispute with ExxonMobil over Guyana assets has delayed Chevron's strategic expansion into low-cost Guyana production
- Tengiz expansion has faced repeated delays and cost overruns — capital project execution risk in Kazakhstan adds uncertainty to production growth timeline
- Oil price cyclicality affects Chevron's earnings and capital return capacity in similar magnitude to Exxon
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