XOM vs BP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ExxonMobil and BP are both integrated oil and gas majors, but ExxonMobil has focused primarily on maximizing low-cost oil and gas production (particularly in the Permian Basin and Guyana) with disciplined capital allocation, while BP has pursued a more explicit, at times shifting, strategy balancing traditional oil and gas production with low-carbon energy transition investments.
ExxonMobil offers a best-in-class, low-cost production growth profile with a long dividend growth track record, while BP offers a potentially higher-upside value opportunity if its energy transition strategy and capital discipline improve, but with historically higher leverage and more strategic uncertainty. Consider whether you prefer ExxonMobil's operational consistency or BP's potential value re-rating.
XOM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. XOM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+43.54% vs +35.64%), though BP has the better forward P/E setup (9.16x vs 14.72x for XOM). On fundamentals, BP is growing revenue faster (48.20%), while XOM maintains the higher operating margin (15.86%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +8.28% for XOM and +9.01% for BP.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to low-cost, high-quality upstream production assets like the Permian Basin and Guyana
- Value a long, consistent track record of dividend growth supported by strong free cash flow
- Prefer a disciplined, best-in-class integrated oil major over a higher-leverage, transition-focused peer
- Are comfortable with earnings sensitivity to global oil and gas price cycles
- Want a potential value opportunity trading at a discount to larger US integrated oil majors
- Believe BP's low-carbon and renewable energy investments will pay off over the long-term energy transition
- Are comfortable with historically higher financial leverage relative to ExxonMobil
- Want diversified exposure across traditional oil and gas plus emerging low-carbon energy sources
| Metric | XOM | BP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.0 | 44.8 |
| AI ranki | #361 | #801 |
| Latest closei | $163.54 | $44.58 |
| 1M returni | -0.75% | +1.94% |
| 6M returni | +3.40% | +1.93% |
| 1Y returni | +43.54% | +35.64% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | XOM | BP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.35K (+43.5%) started 2025-09-18 | $14.27K (+42.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $40.48K (+304.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $30.51K (+205.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $46.76K (+367.6%) started 2016-09-19 | $49.74K (+397.4%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | XOM | BP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $644.38B | $114.81B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 20.17 | 21.23 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.72 | 9.16 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.32 | 0.53 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.89 | 2.39 |
| Analyst targeti | $169.68 | $48.59 |
| Target upsidei | +8.28% | +9.01% |
| Metric | XOM | BP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 44.10% | 48.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 112.80% | 138.90% |
| EPS growthi | +112.80% | +138.90% |
| FCF margini | +5.73% | +5.98% |
| Operating margini | 15.86% | 13.15% |
| Profit margini | 9.07% | 2.55% |
| ROIC proxyi | 12.58% | 8.87% |
| Return on equityi | 12.58% | 8.87% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.63% | 4.52% |
| Payout ratioi | 52.51% | 95.39% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | 4 yrs |
| Betai | 0.17 | -0.22 |
| Debt/equityi | 15.92 | 95.12 |
| Current ratioi | 1.14 | 1.27 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.80 | 0.77 |
Over the past year, XOM and BP have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.73), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | XOM | BP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +43.54% | +35.64% |
| CAGRi | +43.58% | +35.67% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.85% | 29.30% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.36 | 1.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.01 | 1.45 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.65% | 23.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 4.62% | 5.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.14% | 5.30% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.46% | 7.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.23% | 6.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.01% | 9.73% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +249.48% | +130.35% |
| CAGRi | +28.47% | +18.19% | |
| Volatilityi | 26.61% | 28.59% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.91 | 0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.31 | 0.80 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.65% | 30.64% | |
| Current drawdowni | 4.62% | 5.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.21% | 9.22% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.85% | 11.36% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.89% | 9.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.35% | 22.77% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +189.34% | +134.49% |
| CAGRi | +11.21% | +8.90% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.38% | 31.40% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.36 | 0.29 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.52 | 0.40 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.01% | 63.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 4.62% | 5.07% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.09% | 15.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.15% | 20.93% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.22% | 19.10% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.80% | 34.67% |
| Category | XOM | BP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Exxon Mobil Corporation | BP p.l.c. |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Integrated | Oil & Gas Integrated |
| Core business | A fully integrated oil and gas major with upstream production (including a large Permian Basin position), downstream refining, and chemicals operations, alongside growing investment in carbon capture and low-carbon solutions. | An integrated oil and gas major with North Sea and global upstream production, downstream refining and marketing, and a low-carbon energy transition strategy spanning renewables and biofuels. |
| Investor focus | Upstream production growth (particularly Permian Basin and Guyana), refining and chemicals margin trends, capital discipline, and dividend growth track record. | Upstream production trends, low-carbon and renewables investment returns, refining margins, and dividend/buyback sustainability given historically higher financial leverage. |
- Large, low-cost production assets in the Permian Basin and Guyana provide durable upstream growth
- Integrated business model across upstream, refining, and chemicals provides diversification within the energy value chain
- Long, consistent track record of dividend growth supported by strong free cash flow generation
- Global upstream and downstream portfolio provides diversified exposure to energy value chain
- Strategic investment in low-carbon and renewable energy provides optionality for the long-term energy transition
- Trades at a valuation discount to larger US peers, offering potential value if execution improves
- Earnings remain highly sensitive to global oil and natural gas price cycles
- Long-term demand uncertainty as the global economy gradually transitions toward lower-carbon energy sources
- Large capital expenditure commitments required to maintain and grow production and refining capacity
- Historically higher financial leverage and lower capital returns than best-in-class US integrated oil majors
- Strategic shifts between prioritizing oil and gas versus low-carbon investment have created investor uncertainty
- Earnings remain sensitive to global oil and natural gas price cycles, similar to all integrated majors
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