VLO vs MPC Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Valero's refining and renewable diesel business against Marathon Petroleum's refining scale and midstream assets.
Use this Valero Energy vs Marathon Petroleum comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
VLO holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VLO leads on both 1-year return (+159.02%) and forward P/E quality (9.39x vs 11.45x for MPC), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. MPC leads on both revenue growth (53.70%) and operating margin (13.56%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VLO (-8.57%) than for MPC (-12.00%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 68.3 | 69.1 |
| AI ranki | #43 | #28 |
| Latest closei | $419.28 | $457.22 |
| 1M returni | +11.56% | +17.72% |
| 3M returni | +38.60% | +47.85% |
| 6M returni | +77.77% | +103.99% |
| 1Y returni | +159.02% | +142.51% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $24.22K (+142.2%) started 2025-10-23 | $23.33K (+133.3%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $65.26K (+552.6%) started 2021-10-25 | $79.54K (+695.4%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $161.58K (+1515.8%) started 2016-10-24 | $186.83K (+1768.3%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $128.04B | $103.58B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.54 | 12.79 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.39 | 11.45 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.02 | 0.89 |
| Analyst targeti | $406.58 | $324.56 |
| Target upsidei | -8.57% | -12.00% |
| Metric | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 51.70% | 53.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 453.50% | 348.00% |
| EPS growthi | +453.50% | +348.00% |
| FCF margini | +6.36% | +6.00% |
| Operating margini | 12.27% | 13.56% |
| Profit margini | 5.45% | 5.55% |
| ROIC proxyi | 27.64% | 42.10% |
| Return on equityi | 27.64% | 42.10% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.08% | 1.08% |
| Payout ratioi | 19.42% | 13.54% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| Debt/equityi | 40.15 | 133.33 |
| Current ratioi | 1.64 | 1.25 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.05 | 0.86 |
Over the past year, VLO and MPC have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.87), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +142.18% | +133.32% |
| CAGRi | +142.48% | +133.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.13% | 35.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.46 | 2.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 4.03 | 3.89 | |
| Max drawdowni | 12.67% | 18.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.81% | 5.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.35% | 4.53% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.70% | 6.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.48% | 6.13% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.48% | 11.18% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +474.93% | +628.88% |
| CAGRi | +41.93% | +48.84% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.90% | 33.44% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.02 | 1.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.48 | 1.78 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.22% | 44.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.81% | 5.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.83% | 12.03% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.15% | 16.13% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.47% | 13.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.35% | 19.43% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +963.72% | +1269.23% |
| CAGRi | +26.68% | +29.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.69% | 40.12% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.67 | 0.74 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.00 | 1.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 71.88% | 79.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.81% | 5.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.09% | 18.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.91% | 24.91% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.22% | 27.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.65% | 46.59% |
| Category | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | VLO | MPC |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing |
| Core business | Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America,… | Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. |
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on VLO and MPC. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside VLO and MPC, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.