VLO vs MPC Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Valero's refining and renewable diesel business against Marathon Petroleum's refining scale and midstream assets.
Use this Valero Energy vs Marathon Petroleum comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
MPC holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VLO has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+138.59% vs +117.26%), though MPC has the better forward P/E setup (11.45x vs 11.88x for VLO). MPC leads on both revenue growth (53.70%) and operating margin (13.56%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: -12.28% for VLO and -12.00% for MPC.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 67.6 | 62.6 |
| AI ranki | #56 | #111 |
| Latest closei | $370.72 | $388.90 |
| 1M returni | +22.60% | +30.61% |
| 6M returni | +62.58% | +78.92% |
| 1Y returni | +138.59% | +117.26% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $23.86K (+138.6%) started 2025-09-04 | $21.73K (+117.3%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $72.82K (+628.2%) started 2021-09-07 | $78.78K (+687.8%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $145.17K (+1351.7%) started 2016-09-06 | $161.91K (+1519.1%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $106.74B | $103.58B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 15.45 | 12.79 |
| Forward P/Ei | 11.88 | 11.45 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.86 | 0.89 |
| Analyst targeti | $325.21 | $324.56 |
| Target upsidei | -12.28% | -12.00% |
| Metric | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 51.70% | 53.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 453.50% | 348.00% |
| EPS growthi | +453.50% | +348.00% |
| FCF margini | +6.36% | +6.00% |
| Operating margini | 12.27% | 13.56% |
| Profit margini | 5.45% | 5.55% |
| ROIC proxyi | 27.64% | 42.10% |
| Return on equityi | 27.64% | 42.10% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.29% | 1.08% |
| Betai | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| Debt/equityi | 40.15 | 133.33 |
| Current ratioi | 1.64 | 1.25 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.05 | 0.86 |
Over the past year, VLO and MPC have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.86), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +138.57% | +117.29% |
| CAGRi | +138.87% | +117.53% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.25% | 34.11% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.46 | 2.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 4.09 | 3.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 12.67% | 18.74% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.54% | 4.62% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.92% | 6.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.48% | 6.13% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.67% | 11.18% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +541.56% | +621.90% |
| CAGRi | +45.11% | +48.58% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.77% | 33.21% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.08 | 1.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.58 | 1.78 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.22% | 44.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.77% | 11.98% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.14% | 16.12% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.47% | 13.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.35% | 19.43% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +855.67% | +1086.59% |
| CAGRi | +25.34% | +28.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.58% | 40.08% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.65 | 0.71 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.96 | 1.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 71.88% | 79.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.09% | 18.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.91% | 24.91% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.22% | 27.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.65% | 46.59% |
| Category | VLO | MPC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | VLO | MPC |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing |
| Core business | Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America,… | Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. |
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