PKG vs IP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
PKG is widely viewed as the best-operated pure-play containerboard company with disciplined capital allocation, while IP offers larger global scale but a longer history of operational inconsistency, now compounded by integration risk from its DS Smith acquisition.
PKG vs IP contrasts a smaller, highly efficient containerboard operator against a larger, globally diversified packaging company working through a major acquisition integration.
PKG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. PKG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+8.79% vs -26.70%), though IP has the better forward P/E setup (13.15x vs 18.58x for PKG). PKG leads on both revenue growth (14.70%) and operating margin (13.12%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for IP (+22.11%) than for PKG (+8.37%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the best-operated U.S. containerboard producer
- Value consistent capital allocation and shareholder returns
- Prefer a focused business model over global diversification
- Want larger scale and global packaging exposure
- Believe DS Smith integration will unlock margin improvement
- Are comfortable with turnaround and integration execution risk
| Metric | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.0 | 40.2 |
| AI ranki | #363 | #1173 |
| Latest closei | $232.77 | $34.53 |
| 1M returni | -7.96% | -15.90% |
| 6M returni | +13.89% | +1.56% |
| 1Y returni | +8.79% | -26.70% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.88K (+8.8%) started 2025-09-18 | $7.33K (-26.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $20.87K (+108.7%) started 2021-09-20 | $9.03K (-9.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $49.53K (+395.3%) started 2016-09-19 | $16.57K (+65.7%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $21.42B | $20.82B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 31.26 | 39.95 |
| Forward P/Ei | 18.58 | 13.15 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.07 | 1.26 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.63 | 1.24 |
| Analyst targeti | $260.50 | $48.00 |
| Target upsidei | +8.37% | +22.11% |
| Metric | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.70% | -2.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -19.50% | -90.10% |
| EPS growthi | -19.50% | -90.10% |
| FCF margini | +4.54% | +6.80% |
| Operating margini | 13.12% | 2.30% |
| Profit margini | 7.26% | -14.21% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.89% | -16.48% |
| Return on equityi | 14.89% | -16.48% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.50% | 4.71% |
| Payout ratioi | 68.18% | 158.12% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.81 | 0.89 |
| Debt/equityi | 94.47 | 68.51 |
| Current ratioi | 2.94 | 1.10 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.77 | 0.68 |
Over the past year, PKG and IP have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.74), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +8.79% | -26.70% |
| CAGRi | +8.80% | -26.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.01% | 44.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.28 | -0.59 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.42 | -0.81 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.69% | 40.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.58% | 29.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.90% | 19.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.39% | 22.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.26% | 12.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.43% | 23.37% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +85.96% | -23.63% |
| CAGRi | +13.22% | -5.25% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.96% | 33.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.44 | -0.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.64 | -0.17 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.78% | 50.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.58% | 42.05% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.25% | 23.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.96% | 26.32% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.01% | 12.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.41% | 23.37% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +272.42% | +7.32% |
| CAGRi | +14.06% | +0.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.46% | 32.86% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.45 | 0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.67 | 0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.18% | 55.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.58% | 42.05% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.82% | 22.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.73% | 26.23% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.25% | 12.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.23% | 23.37% |
| Category | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Packaging Corporation of America | International Paper Company |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Packaging & Containers | Packaging & Containers |
| Core business | Packaging Corporation of America is a leading manufacturer of containerboard and corrugated packaging products in the U.S., serving e-commerce, food, and industrial customers. | International Paper is one of the world's largest paper and packaging companies, producing containerboard, corrugated packaging, and pulp products globally, including through its DS Smith combination. |
| Investor focus | Investors track containerboard pricing, e-commerce-driven box demand, mill operating rates, and PKG's disciplined capital allocation history. | Investors track global containerboard demand, pulp pricing, restructuring and footprint optimization efforts, and integration of recent acquisitions. |
- Focused, efficient operating model with strong mill performance
- Direct beneficiary of e-commerce-driven packaging demand growth
- Track record of disciplined capital allocation and shareholder returns
- Global scale with extensive manufacturing footprint
- Diversified product mix across containerboard, pulp, and packaging
- Expanded European exposure through the DS Smith acquisition
- Containerboard pricing is cyclical and tied to industrial demand
- Input cost inflation in fiber, energy, and chemicals
- Smaller scale than International Paper limits some cost advantages
- History of operational underperformance relative to peers like PKG
- Integration risk and costs from the DS Smith combination
- Legacy paper business secular decline pressures overall results
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.