PKG vs IP Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
PKG is widely viewed as the best-operated pure-play containerboard company with disciplined capital allocation, while IP offers larger global scale but a longer history of operational inconsistency, now compounded by integration risk from its DS Smith acquisition.
PKG vs IP contrasts a smaller, highly efficient containerboard operator against a larger, globally diversified packaging company working through a major acquisition integration.
PKG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. PKG has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+26.05% vs -5.50%), though IP has the better forward P/E setup (13.15x vs 18.58x for PKG). PKG leads on both revenue growth (14.70%) and operating margin (13.12%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for IP (+22.11%) than for PKG (+8.37%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the best-operated U.S. containerboard producer
- Value consistent capital allocation and shareholder returns
- Prefer a focused business model over global diversification
- Want larger scale and global packaging exposure
- Believe DS Smith integration will unlock margin improvement
- Are comfortable with turnaround and integration execution risk
| Metric | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.9 | 41.0 |
| AI ranki | #429 | #1072 |
| Latest closei | $249.70 | $34.53 |
| 1M returni | +9.88% | +8.52% |
| 3M returni | -2.48% | -16.96% |
| 6M returni | +11.18% | +4.54% |
| 1Y returni | +26.05% | -5.50% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.45K (+24.5%) started 2025-11-07 | $9.06K (-9.4%) started 2025-11-07 |
| 5Y ago | $23.27K (+132.7%) started 2021-11-08 | $9.68K (-3.2%) started 2021-11-08 |
| 10Y ago | $53.85K (+438.5%) started 2016-11-07 | $18.26K (+82.6%) started 2016-11-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $21.42B | $20.82B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 31.26 | 39.95 |
| Forward P/Ei | 18.58 | 13.15 |
| Price/Salesi | 2.07 | 1.26 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.63 | 1.24 |
| Analyst targeti | $260.50 | $48.00 |
| Target upsidei | +8.37% | +22.11% |
| Metric | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 14.70% | -2.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -19.50% | -90.10% |
| EPS growthi | -19.50% | -90.10% |
| FCF margini | +4.54% | +6.80% |
| Operating margini | 13.12% | 2.30% |
| Profit margini | 7.26% | -14.21% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.89% | -16.48% |
| Return on equityi | 14.89% | -16.48% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.50% | 4.71% |
| Payout ratioi | 67.82% | 402.17% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.81 | 0.89 |
| Debt/equityi | 94.47 | 68.51 |
| Current ratioi | 2.94 | 1.10 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.77 | 0.68 |
Over the past year, PKG and IP have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.76), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +24.51% | -9.37% |
| CAGRi | +24.58% | -9.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 28.11% | 42.90% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.78 | -0.13 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.23 | -0.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 17.69% | 40.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.00% | 29.80% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.46% | 19.26% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.23% | 23.01% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.26% | 9.41% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.43% | 13.70% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +107.43% | -18.10% |
| CAGRi | +15.72% | -3.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.97% | 34.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.52 | -0.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.77 | -0.11 | |
| Max drawdowni | 31.78% | 50.70% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.00% | 42.05% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.17% | 20.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.97% | 23.94% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.01% | 12.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.41% | 23.37% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +304.84% | +18.23% |
| CAGRi | +15.01% | +1.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.43% | 33.00% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.49 | 0.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.72 | 0.11 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.18% | 55.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 3.00% | 42.05% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.89% | 23.00% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.77% | 26.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.25% | 12.85% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.23% | 23.37% |
| Category | PKG | IP |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Packaging Corporation of America | International Paper Company |
| Sector | Consumer Cyclical | Consumer Cyclical |
| Industry | Packaging & Containers | Packaging & Containers |
| Core business | Packaging Corporation of America is a leading manufacturer of containerboard and corrugated packaging products in the U.S., serving e-commerce, food, and industrial customers. | International Paper is one of the world's largest paper and packaging companies, producing containerboard, corrugated packaging, and pulp products globally, including through its DS Smith combination. |
| Investor focus | Investors track containerboard pricing, e-commerce-driven box demand, mill operating rates, and PKG's disciplined capital allocation history. | Investors track global containerboard demand, pulp pricing, restructuring and footprint optimization efforts, and integration of recent acquisitions. |
- Focused, efficient operating model with strong mill performance
- Direct beneficiary of e-commerce-driven packaging demand growth
- Track record of disciplined capital allocation and shareholder returns
- Global scale with extensive manufacturing footprint
- Diversified product mix across containerboard, pulp, and packaging
- Expanded European exposure through the DS Smith acquisition
- Containerboard pricing is cyclical and tied to industrial demand
- Input cost inflation in fiber, energy, and chemicals
- Smaller scale than International Paper limits some cost advantages
- History of operational underperformance relative to peers like PKG
- Integration risk and costs from the DS Smith combination
- Legacy paper business secular decline pressures overall results
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