VLO vs XOM Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Compare Valero's pure-play refining business against Exxon Mobil's fully integrated upstream, downstream, and chemicals operations.
Use this Valero Energy vs Exxon Mobil comparison to evaluate the key differences across valuation, growth, profitability, and risk before making an investment decision.
VLO holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VLO leads on both 1-year return (+159.02%) and forward P/E quality (9.39x vs 14.72x for XOM), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, VLO is growing revenue faster (51.70%), while XOM maintains the higher operating margin (15.86%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for XOM (+8.28%) than for VLO (-8.57%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
| Metric | VLO | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 68.3 | 58.6 |
| AI ranki | #43 | #274 |
| Latest closei | $419.28 | $183.21 |
| 1M returni | +11.56% | +13.63% |
| 3M returni | +38.60% | +16.74% |
| 6M returni | +77.77% | +23.03% |
| 1Y returni | +159.02% | +59.72% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | VLO | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $24.22K (+142.2%) started 2025-10-23 | $15.8K (+58.0%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $65.26K (+552.6%) started 2021-10-25 | $37.84K (+278.4%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $161.58K (+1515.8%) started 2016-10-24 | $50.53K (+405.3%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | VLO | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $128.04B | $644.38B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.54 | 20.17 |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.39 | 14.72 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.33 | 1.32 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.02 | 1.89 |
| Analyst targeti | $406.58 | $169.68 |
| Target upsidei | -8.57% | +8.28% |
| Metric | VLO | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 51.70% | 44.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 453.50% | 112.80% |
| EPS growthi | +453.50% | +112.80% |
| FCF margini | +6.36% | +5.73% |
| Operating margini | 12.27% | 15.86% |
| Profit margini | 5.45% | 9.07% |
| ROIC proxyi | 27.64% | 12.58% |
| Return on equityi | 27.64% | 12.58% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.08% | 2.63% |
| Payout ratioi | 19.42% | 52.51% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.59 | 0.17 |
| Debt/equityi | 40.15 | 15.92 |
| Current ratioi | 1.64 | 1.14 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.05 | 0.80 |
Over the past year, VLO and XOM have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.50), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | VLO | XOM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +142.18% | +57.97% |
| CAGRi | +142.48% | +58.07% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.13% | 26.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.46 | 1.72 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 4.03 | 2.57 | |
| Max drawdowni | 12.67% | 20.65% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.81% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.35% | 6.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.70% | 8.48% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.48% | 5.23% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.48% | 9.01% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +474.93% | +226.66% |
| CAGRi | +41.93% | +26.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 36.90% | 26.53% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.02 | 0.86 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.48 | 1.23 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.22% | 20.65% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.81% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.83% | 7.26% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 16.15% | 8.87% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.47% | 7.89% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.35% | 15.35% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +963.72% | +212.65% |
| CAGRi | +26.68% | +12.08% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.69% | 28.40% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.67 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.00 | 0.55 | |
| Max drawdowni | 71.88% | 61.01% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.81% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.09% | 13.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.91% | 18.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.22% | 12.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 35.65% | 25.80% |
| Category | VLO | XOM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | VLO | XOM |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | Oil & Gas Integrated |
| Core business | Valero Energy Corporation manufactures, markets, and sells petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels and petrochemical products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Latin America,… | ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. |
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Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
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