COP vs OXY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ConocoPhillips and Occidental are both major US E&P companies with Permian Basin exposure, but COP is globally diversified and more financially conservative while OXY is more concentrated in the Permian and carries higher financial leverage. OXY is a more oil-price-sensitive, higher-beta investment with Berkshire Hathaway's stamp of approval; COP is a lower-volatility, more disciplined capital allocator with global asset diversification.
COP vs OXY is a choice between the disciplined global E&P with low break-even economics and diversified LNG exposure (ConocoPhillips) and the higher-leverage Permian Basin pure-play with Buffett's backing and carbon capture optionality (Occidental).
COP holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. COP leads on both 1-year return (+41.02%) and forward P/E quality (13.68x vs 15.41x for OXY), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. OXY leads on both revenue growth (53.40%) and operating margin (45.44%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +11.49% for COP and +13.07% for OXY.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer a globally diversified E&P with industry-leading low-cost operations and LNG exposure providing natural price hedging
- value disciplined financial policy with VROC variable return mechanism linking shareholder returns directly to oil cycle upside
- want lower financial leverage and volatility in energy sector exposure relative to more leveraged Permian-concentrated peers
- are comfortable with Willow Alaska capital outlay before first oil and Marathon Oil integration execution risk
- prefer a high-quality Permian Basin pure-play with Berkshire Hathaway's significant ownership as a valuation anchor
- value OXY's leverage to oil prices as an amplified upside vehicle during commodity bull cycles
- want exposure to 1PointFive carbon capture as a long-duration option on carbon pricing policy development
- are comfortable with higher financial leverage than COP creating more equity volatility during oil price downturns
| Metric | COP | OXY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 56.9 | 44.6 |
| AI ranki | #237 | #808 |
| Latest closei | $131.83 | $58.84 |
| 1M returni | +0.96% | -2.08% |
| 6M returni | +4.61% | -1.24% |
| 1Y returni | +41.02% | +24.24% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COP | OXY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.1K (+41.0%) started 2025-09-18 | $12.42K (+24.2%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $30.68K (+206.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $25.12K (+151.2%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $59.83K (+498.3%) started 2016-09-19 | $14.38K (+43.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COP | OXY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $156.59B | $59.08B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.24 | 17.43 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.68 | 15.41 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 1.52 |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.67 | 3.28 |
| Analyst targeti | $145.33 | $66.83 |
| Target upsidei | +11.49% | +13.07% |
| Metric | COP | OXY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 35.50% | 53.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 107.00% | 964.90% |
| EPS growthi | +107.00% | +964.90% |
| FCF margini | +11.93% | +15.83% |
| Operating margini | 31.51% | 45.44% |
| Profit margini | 14.40% | 30.32% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.18% | 10.63% |
| Return on equityi | 14.18% | 10.63% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.58% | 1.89% |
| Payout ratioi | 43.65% | 29.50% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Debt/equityi | 35.64 | 34.51 |
| Current ratioi | 1.54 | 1.41 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.18 | 1.04 |
Over the past year, COP and OXY have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.80), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COP | OXY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +41.02% | +24.24% |
| CAGRi | +41.06% | +24.26% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.79% | 35.54% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.13 | 0.66 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.63 | 0.96 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.86% | 27.63% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.65% | 11.17% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.09% | 11.02% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.19% | 12.66% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.15% | 7.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.85% | 12.01% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +165.20% | +140.75% |
| CAGRi | +21.56% | +19.23% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.69% | 38.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.63 | 0.53 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.89 | 0.81 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.30% | 50.77% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.65% | 19.79% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.87% | 21.81% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.68% | 25.07% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.23% | 11.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.57% | 26.59% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +339.62% | +5.82% |
| CAGRi | +15.97% | +0.57% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.62% | 48.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.67 | 0.25 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.66% | 88.39% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.65% | 19.79% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.76% | 31.86% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.58% | 39.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.84% | 52.01% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 40.88% | 63.08% |
| Category | COP | OXY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | ConocoPhillips | Occidental Petroleum Corporation |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas E&P | Oil & Gas E&P |
| Core business | ConocoPhillips is one of the world's largest independent exploration and production (E&P) companies, with a globally diversified asset portfolio spanning the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Alaska (Willow project), Norway, Qatar LNG, and Australia LNG. COP is known for financial discipline — targeting disciplined capital allocation, per-share production growth, and returning excess free cash flow through dividends, buybacks, and a unique variable return of cash (VROC) mechanism. Its acquisition of Marathon Oil expanded Permian and Eagle Ford acreage. | Occidental Petroleum is a large independent oil and gas company with its primary operations in the Permian Basin, US Gulf Coast, Middle East (Oman, UAE), and OxyChem (chemicals). OXY is more leveraged to Permian Basin domestic oil than COP. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has taken a significant stake in OXY and holds warrants that could expand its position. OXY also has a carbon capture business (1PointFive) that may become more valuable under future carbon pricing scenarios. |
| Investor focus | Investors track free cash flow per barrel at various oil price scenarios, VROC dividend payment schedule, per-share production growth, Willow Alaska project progress, and return on capital employed (ROCE) as COP's primary financial discipline metric. | Investors track Permian Basin production and well productivity, net debt reduction pace (OXY carries higher leverage than COP from the 2019 Anadarko acquisition), Berkshire Hathaway ownership stake implications, and OxyChem margin contribution in a chemicals market cycle. |
- Globally diversified asset base with LNG exposure provides natural hedge against US oil price-only movements
- Industry-leading cost structure ($40–45/barrel breakeven) allows significant free cash flow generation even at mid-cycle oil prices
- VROC variable return mechanism directly links shareholder returns to commodity price upside without over-committing fixed dividend at cycle peaks
- Premium Permian Basin position with deep inventory in the Midland and Delaware basins provides multi-decade drilling opportunity
- Berkshire Hathaway's significant ownership stake (and warrants) provides a perceived floor valuation and signal of long-term value
- 1PointFive carbon capture business could become a large revenue stream if carbon capture markets develop under future carbon pricing
- Marathon Oil integration execution must deliver promised synergies from expanded Permian and Eagle Ford acreage
- Willow Alaska project capital requirements are substantial (multi-billion dollar development) before first oil
- Global oil price decline to sub-$60/barrel would significantly compress free cash flow at COP's cost structure
- Higher financial leverage than COP from the Anadarko acquisition creates more equity price sensitivity to oil price moves
- OxyChem chemicals margins are cyclical and can create earnings variability unrelated to oil and gas operations
- Carbon capture business (1PointFive) remains pre-commercial at scale — significant capital investment with uncertain near-term returns
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