COP vs APA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ConocoPhillips and APA Corporation are both independent exploration and production companies with meaningful Permian Basin exposure, but ConocoPhillips operates at a much larger, more diversified scale, while APA Corporation combines established production in the Permian, Egypt, and the North Sea with exploration upside in offshore Suriname.
ConocoPhillips offers exposure to a larger, more diversified E&P portfolio with an established capital return framework, while APA Corporation offers a smaller-scale bet combining established production with exploration upside from offshore Suriname. Consider whether you prefer ConocoPhillips' scale and diversification or APA's exploration-driven upside potential.
APA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. APA leads on both 1-year return (+126.62%) and forward P/E quality (10.18x vs 13.68x for COP), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, COP is growing revenue faster (35.50%), while APA maintains the higher operating margin (56.33%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COP (+11.49%) than for APA (+1.77%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a larger, more diversified oil and gas production portfolio
- Value an established capital return framework combining dividends and buybacks
- Believe diversification across US and international assets reduces single-basin concentration risk
- Prefer a lower-risk, larger-scale E&P investment
- Want exposure to established Permian Basin, Egypt, and North Sea production assets
- Believe offshore Suriname exploration could provide meaningful long-term upside
- Are comfortable with a smaller-scale company facing balance sheet deleveraging priorities
- Seek higher risk-reward potential from exploration upside alongside core production
| Metric | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 59.9 | 39.5 |
| AI ranki | #240 | #1229 |
| Latest closei | $150.03 | $51.51 |
| 1M returni | +19.60% | +22.09% |
| 3M returni | +26.04% | +41.78% |
| 6M returni | +19.28% | +26.47% |
| 1Y returni | +72.87% | +126.62% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $17.03K (+70.3%) started 2025-10-29 | $22.85K (+128.5%) started 2025-10-29 |
| 5Y ago | $26.37K (+163.7%) started 2021-11-01 | $23.33K (+133.3%) started 2021-11-01 |
| 10Y ago | $60.74K (+507.4%) started 2016-10-31 | $13.26K (+32.6%) started 2016-10-31 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $156.59B | $15.67B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.24 | 9.44 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.68 | 10.18 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.67 | 2.34 |
| Analyst targeti | $145.33 | $45.52 |
| Target upsidei | +11.49% | +1.77% |
| Metric | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 35.50% | 9.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 107.00% | 26.30% |
| EPS growthi | +107.00% | +26.30% |
| FCF margini | +11.93% | +25.04% |
| Operating margini | 31.51% | 56.33% |
| Profit margini | 14.40% | 19.56% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.18% | 26.66% |
| Return on equityi | 14.18% | 26.66% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.58% | 2.24% |
| Payout ratioi | 43.71% | 21.14% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.12 | 0.37 |
| Debt/equityi | 35.64 | 48.85 |
| Current ratioi | 1.54 | 0.95 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.18 | 0.69 |
Over the past year, COP and APA have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.78), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +70.33% | +128.53% |
| CAGRi | +70.46% | +128.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.63% | 44.29% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.62 | 3.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.86% | 28.20% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.89% | 0.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.97% | 8.33% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.48% | 11.48% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.15% | 9.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.29% | 13.80% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +129.54% | +109.79% |
| CAGRi | +18.11% | +16.00% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.60% | 47.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.54 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.76 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.30% | 70.47% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.89% | 0.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.95% | 30.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.71% | 35.59% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.23% | 16.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.57% | 33.60% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +349.70% | +6.05% |
| CAGRi | +16.23% | +0.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.52% | 58.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.47 | 0.24 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.68 | 0.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.66% | 93.49% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.89% | 6.34% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.79% | 47.26% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.59% | 50.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.84% | 53.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 40.88% | 68.12% |
| Category | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | ConocoPhillips | APA Corporation |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas E&P | Oil & Gas E&P |
| Core business | A global independent exploration and production company with a diversified portfolio of oil and gas assets spanning the Permian Basin, Alaska, and international operations, focused on low cost-of-supply drilling inventory. | An independent exploration and production company with operating assets in the Permian Basin, Egypt, and the North Sea, alongside exploration interests in offshore Suriname, pursuing a mix of established production and exploration upside. |
| Investor focus | Production growth from its Permian Basin and diversified asset base, capital return program consistency, and break-even oil price relative to peers. | Permian Basin production trends, progress on offshore Suriname exploration and development, and balance sheet deleveraging as a capital allocation priority. |
- Geographically diversified asset base spanning multiple US basins and international operations reduces single-region concentration risk
- Low cost-of-supply drilling inventory supports resilient free cash flow generation across a range of oil price environments
- Established capital return framework combining base dividends with variable and share buyback components rewards shareholders through cycles
- Diversified asset base spanning the Permian Basin, Egypt, and the North Sea provides exposure across multiple production regions
- Exploration interest in offshore Suriname offers potential upside from a newer, high-impact development opportunity
- Established Permian Basin acreage provides a core production base to fund ongoing operations and debt reduction
- Results remain fundamentally exposed to volatile global oil and gas price movements despite diversification efforts
- Large-scale acquisitions integration can introduce near-term execution risk to production and cost targets
- International operations carry geopolitical and regulatory risk beyond typical US onshore exposure
- Smaller scale relative to larger diversified E&P peers limits its ability to absorb commodity price shocks as easily
- Suriname exploration upside remains unproven at commercial scale and carries typical exploration and development risk
- Egypt and North Sea operations introduce geopolitical and regulatory risk beyond core US onshore exposure
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