COP vs APA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ConocoPhillips and APA Corporation are both independent exploration and production companies with meaningful Permian Basin exposure, but ConocoPhillips operates at a much larger, more diversified scale, while APA Corporation combines established production in the Permian, Egypt, and the North Sea with exploration upside in offshore Suriname.
ConocoPhillips offers exposure to a larger, more diversified E&P portfolio with an established capital return framework, while APA Corporation offers a smaller-scale bet combining established production with exploration upside from offshore Suriname. Consider whether you prefer ConocoPhillips' scale and diversification or APA's exploration-driven upside potential.
APA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. APA leads on both 1-year return (+88.58%) and forward P/E quality (10.13x vs 13.68x for COP), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, COP is growing revenue faster (35.50%), while APA maintains the higher operating margin (56.33%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COP (+11.49%) than for APA (+2.84%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to a larger, more diversified oil and gas production portfolio
- Value an established capital return framework combining dividends and buybacks
- Believe diversification across US and international assets reduces single-basin concentration risk
- Prefer a lower-risk, larger-scale E&P investment
- Want exposure to established Permian Basin, Egypt, and North Sea production assets
- Believe offshore Suriname exploration could provide meaningful long-term upside
- Are comfortable with a smaller-scale company facing balance sheet deleveraging priorities
- Seek higher risk-reward potential from exploration upside alongside core production
| Metric | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 56.3 | 27.4 |
| AI ranki | #249 | #2442 |
| Latest closei | $134.26 | $42.77 |
| 1M returni | +16.71% | +23.40% |
| 6M returni | +14.93% | +32.09% |
| 1Y returni | +41.85% | +88.58% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.02K (+40.2%) started 2025-09-04 | $18.25K (+82.5%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $31.86K (+218.6%) started 2021-09-07 | $27.08K (+170.8%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $58.38K (+483.8%) started 2016-09-06 | $12.78K (+27.8%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $156.59B | $14.9B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.24 | 8.97 |
| Forward P/Ei | 13.68 | 10.13 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 2.67 | 2.25 |
| Analyst targeti | $145.33 | $43.75 |
| Target upsidei | +11.49% | +2.84% |
| Metric | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 35.50% | 9.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 107.00% | 26.30% |
| EPS growthi | +107.00% | +26.30% |
| FCF margini | +11.93% | +25.04% |
| Operating margini | 31.51% | 56.33% |
| Profit margini | 14.40% | 19.56% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.18% | 26.66% |
| Return on equityi | 14.18% | 26.66% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.58% | 2.36% |
| Betai | 0.12 | 0.35 |
| Debt/equityi | 35.64 | 48.85 |
| Current ratioi | 1.54 | 0.95 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.18 | 0.69 |
Over the past year, COP and APA have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.78), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +40.19% | +82.47% |
| CAGRi | +40.26% | +82.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.34% | 46.12% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.12 | 1.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.64 | 2.21 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.86% | 28.20% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.14% | 4.32% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.12% | 8.69% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.18% | 11.61% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.97% | 9.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.85% | 13.80% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +175.35% | +142.90% |
| CAGRi | +22.49% | +19.46% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.66% | 48.18% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.65 | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.93 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.30% | 70.47% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.14% | 8.52% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.86% | 30.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.68% | 35.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.23% | 16.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.57% | 33.60% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +328.95% | +1.77% |
| CAGRi | +15.68% | +0.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.62% | 58.48% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.23 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.66 | 0.33 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.66% | 93.49% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.14% | 22.23% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.78% | 47.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.59% | 50.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 24.84% | 53.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 40.88% | 68.12% |
| Category | COP | APA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | ConocoPhillips | APA Corporation |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas E&P | Oil & Gas E&P |
| Core business | A global independent exploration and production company with a diversified portfolio of oil and gas assets spanning the Permian Basin, Alaska, and international operations, focused on low cost-of-supply drilling inventory. | An independent exploration and production company with operating assets in the Permian Basin, Egypt, and the North Sea, alongside exploration interests in offshore Suriname, pursuing a mix of established production and exploration upside. |
| Investor focus | Production growth from its Permian Basin and diversified asset base, capital return program consistency, and break-even oil price relative to peers. | Permian Basin production trends, progress on offshore Suriname exploration and development, and balance sheet deleveraging as a capital allocation priority. |
- Geographically diversified asset base spanning multiple US basins and international operations reduces single-region concentration risk
- Low cost-of-supply drilling inventory supports resilient free cash flow generation across a range of oil price environments
- Established capital return framework combining base dividends with variable and share buyback components rewards shareholders through cycles
- Diversified asset base spanning the Permian Basin, Egypt, and the North Sea provides exposure across multiple production regions
- Exploration interest in offshore Suriname offers potential upside from a newer, high-impact development opportunity
- Established Permian Basin acreage provides a core production base to fund ongoing operations and debt reduction
- Results remain fundamentally exposed to volatile global oil and gas price movements despite diversification efforts
- Large-scale acquisitions integration can introduce near-term execution risk to production and cost targets
- International operations carry geopolitical and regulatory risk beyond typical US onshore exposure
- Smaller scale relative to larger diversified E&P peers limits its ability to absorb commodity price shocks as easily
- Suriname exploration upside remains unproven at commercial scale and carries typical exploration and development risk
- Egypt and North Sea operations introduce geopolitical and regulatory risk beyond core US onshore exposure
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