NGL vs HESM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NGL Energy Partners (NGL) and Hess Midstream (HESM) are both smaller midstream MLPs with concentrated business models — NGL with Permian water disposal and crude logistics, and HESM with Bakken-focused gathering and processing tied to Hess Corporation (being acquired by Chevron). Both offer fee-based cash flows with different risk profiles.
NGL vs HESM compares two niche midstream MLPs — NGL's produced water infrastructure growth story in the Permian versus HESM's predictable Bakken gathering cash flows tied to a parent customer undergoing ownership transition.
HESM holds the edge across 2 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NGL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+153.10% vs +3.97% for HESM). On fundamentals, NGL is growing revenue faster (59.10%), while HESM maintains the higher operating margin (63.46%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to the growing Permian Basin produced water disposal market as a derivative of rising Texas oil production
- Value fee-based water services as a less commodity-price-sensitive midstream business than crude oil transportation or processing
- Believe NGL's leverage reduction path and water business expansion provide a catalyst for distribution reinstatement and unit price appreciation
- Want a predictable fee-based midstream MLP with high distribution growth tied to Bakken Shale gathering and processing
- Value the cash flow visibility from long-term gathering contracts with a creditworthy parent company (Hess, now being acquired by Chevron)
- Accept Bakken basin concentration and single-customer risk in exchange for a steady, growing distribution from a well-managed Bakken midstream operator
| Metric | NGL | HESM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 30.7 | 39.8 |
| AI ranki | #2726 | #2028 |
| Latest closei | $16.35 | $32.44 |
| 1M returni | +0.37% | -14.07% |
| 3M returni | +2.19% | -18.84% |
| 6M returni | +3.15% | -14.53% |
| 1Y returni | +153.10% | +3.97% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NGL | HESM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $24.15K (+141.5%) started 2025-11-03 | $11.16K (+11.6%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $75K (+650.0%) started 2021-11-03 | $29.98K (+199.8%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $31.09K (+210.9%) started 2016-11-03 | $71.22K (+612.2%) started 2017-04-05 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NGL | HESM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | N/A | $8.31B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 13.90 |
| Forward P/Ei | N/A | 13.03 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.65 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.72 | 5.40 |
| Analyst targeti | N/A | $37.50 |
| Target upsidei | N/A | -6.98% |
| Metric | NGL | HESM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 59.10% | -3.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 1128.60% | 1.40% |
| EPS growthi | +1128.60% | +1.40% |
| FCF margini | +2.28% | +30.94% |
| Operating margini | 14.87% | 63.46% |
| Profit margini | -3.76% | 23.23% |
| ROIC proxyi | -37.66% | 150.71% |
| Return on equityi | -37.66% | 150.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.00% | 7.67% |
| Payout ratioi | 300.00% | 104.66% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | 8 yrs |
| Betai | 0.87 | 0.50 |
| Debt/equityi | 6312.03 | 948.45 |
| Current ratioi | 1.14 | 0.77 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.00 | 0.77 |
Over the past year, NGL and HESM have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.19), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NGL | HESM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +141.51% | +2.40% |
| CAGRi | +142.24% | +2.41% | |
| Volatilityi | 52.76% | 26.15% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.86 | 0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.38 | 0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.67% | 26.68% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.81% | 20.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.42% | 4.17% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.62% | 7.27% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.72% | 14.63% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.53% | 19.36% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +650.00% | +87.59% |
| CAGRi | +49.67% | +13.42% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.90% | 26.99% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.91 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.44 | 0.59 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.48% | 28.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.81% | 20.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.06% | 7.90% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.63% | 10.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.58% | 14.63% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.17% | 19.36% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +61.05% | +157.11% |
| CAGRi | +4.88% | +10.36% | |
| Volatilityi | 69.69% | 38.56% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.35 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.53 | 0.47 | |
| Max drawdowni | 93.22% | 75.16% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.81% | 20.82% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 57.93% | 11.59% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 63.48% | 15.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 45.34% | 37.70% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 57.51% | 55.59% |
| Category | NGL | HESM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NGL Energy Partners LP | Hess Midstream LP |
| Sector | Energy - Midstream Water & Crude Logistics | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas Midstream | Oil & Gas Midstream |
| Core business | NGL Energy Partners is a midstream MLP focused primarily on water solutions (produced water gathering, disposal, and recycling) for the Permian Basin and DJ Basin, along with crude oil logistics operations — having divested retail propane and refined products businesses to focus on water and crude infrastructure. | Hess Midstream is a gathering, processing, and terminal company primarily serving Hess Corporation's Bakken Shale operations in North Dakota, operating gas gathering, compression, processing, and crude oil gathering systems. |
| Investor focus | Investors track NGL's produced water volumes (a direct derivative of oil production), Permian Basin water disposal capacity, leverage reduction, and the path to reinstating distributions after prior suspension during the 2020 oil price crash. | Investors track Hess Midstream's throughput volumes (tied to Hess Corporation Bakken production), distribution growth, coverage ratio, and the evolution of the Hess parent relationship following Chevron's acquisition of Hess. |
- Produced water disposal is a critical and growing service as Permian Basin production increases — each barrel of oil produced generates multiple barrels of produced water requiring disposal
- Water infrastructure is a fee-based business with less direct commodity price exposure than upstream E&P
- Permian Basin water disposal demand growth is driven structurally by ongoing oil production increases in the most active U.S. oil basin
- Fee-based business model with long-term agreements tied to Hess Corporation's Bakken development plans provides revenue visibility and cash flow predictability
- High distribution growth rate — Hess Midstream has maintained an above-average distribution growth commitment relative to most MLPs
- Tight geographic focus on the Bakken with a single strong parent customer creates operational simplicity and predictability
- NGL Energy Partners cut its distribution in 2020 during the oil price crash and has not fully reinstated it — distribution history concerns income investors
- High leverage from prior growth acquisitions makes the company more vulnerable to oil price downturns that reduce produced water volumes
- Regulatory changes to produced water disposal could affect disposal well permits and operating costs
- Chevron's acquisition of Hess Corporation (the primary customer) creates uncertainty about the long-term strategy for Hess Midstream after the parent company transition
- Single customer concentration means HESM's volumes are entirely dependent on Chevron's (formerly Hess's) Bakken development decisions
- Bakken Shale is a mature basin — long-term production trends will depend on remaining inventory quality and Chevron's capital allocation priorities
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