OXY vs APA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
OXY (Occidental Petroleum) and APA (APA Corporation/Apache) are both Permian Basin-focused independent E&P companies with international diversification — Occidental with Warren Buffett's backing, OxyChem's chemical cushion, and carbon capture ambition, versus APA with Suriname as a potentially transformative exploration upside and mature international assets.
OXY vs APA contrasts two Permian-and-international E&P companies — Occidental's conglomerate diversification (chemicals, carbon capture) and Buffett backing against APA's leaner E&P focus with Suriname offshore exploration as a high-upside long-dated option.
APA holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. APA leads on both 1-year return (+87.74%) and forward P/E quality (10.18x vs 15.41x for OXY), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, OXY is growing revenue faster (53.40%), while APA maintains the higher operating margin (56.33%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for OXY (+13.07%) than for APA (+1.77%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want Permian Basin oil exposure with OxyChem's chemical earnings as a counter-cyclical cushion and Buffett ownership as a credibility signal
- Value Occidental's carbon capture and low-carbon ventures positioning as future energy transition optionality
- Believe Oxy's post-Anadarko leverage reduction is achievable and positions the company for long-term return of capital growth
- Want Permian Basin oil exposure with international diversification and a significant Suriname exploration option on material offshore discoveries
- Value APA's capital discipline and focus on shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks as core capital allocation
- See Suriname as a high-upside exploration call option that could transform APA into a much larger E&P company if development proceeds
| Metric | OXY | APA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 44.6 | 27.6 |
| AI ranki | #808 | #2425 |
| Latest closei | $58.84 | $44.87 |
| 1M returni | -2.08% | +3.27% |
| 6M returni | -1.24% | +17.89% |
| 1Y returni | +24.24% | +87.74% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | OXY | APA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $12.42K (+24.2%) started 2025-09-18 | $18.77K (+87.7%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $25.12K (+151.2%) started 2021-09-20 | $29.34K (+193.4%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $14.38K (+43.8%) started 2016-09-19 | $11.98K (+19.8%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | OXY | APA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $59.08B | $15.67B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.43 | 9.44 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.41 | 10.18 |
| Price/Salesi | 1.52 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.28 | 2.34 |
| Analyst targeti | $66.83 | $45.52 |
| Target upsidei | +13.07% | +1.77% |
| Metric | OXY | APA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 53.40% | 9.20% |
| Earnings growthi | 964.90% | 26.30% |
| EPS growthi | +964.90% | +26.30% |
| FCF margini | +15.83% | +25.04% |
| Operating margini | 45.44% | 56.33% |
| Profit margini | 30.32% | 19.56% |
| ROIC proxyi | 10.63% | 26.66% |
| Return on equityi | 10.63% | 26.66% |
| Dividend yieldi | 1.89% | 2.24% |
| Payout ratioi | 29.50% | 21.10% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.16 | 0.37 |
| Debt/equityi | 34.51 | 48.85 |
| Current ratioi | 1.41 | 0.95 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.04 | 0.69 |
Over the past year, OXY and APA have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.80), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | OXY | APA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +24.24% | +87.74% |
| CAGRi | +24.26% | +87.82% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.54% | 45.58% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.66 | 1.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.96 | 2.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.63% | 28.20% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.17% | 5.36% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.02% | 8.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.66% | 11.63% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.31% | 9.80% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.01% | 13.80% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +140.75% | +163.18% |
| CAGRi | +19.23% | +21.38% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.13% | 47.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.53 | 0.55 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.81 | 0.79 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.77% | 70.47% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.79% | 5.36% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.81% | 30.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.07% | 35.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.01% | 16.48% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.59% | 33.60% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +5.82% | -4.64% |
| CAGRi | +0.57% | -0.47% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.99% | 58.44% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.18 | 0.22 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.25 | 0.31 | |
| Max drawdowni | 88.39% | 93.49% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.79% | 18.41% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 31.86% | 47.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 39.38% | 50.76% | |
| Max daily dropi | 52.01% | 53.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 63.08% | 68.12% |
| Category | OXY | APA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Occidental Petroleum Corporation | APA Corporation |
| Sector | Energy | Energy |
| Industry | Oil & Gas E&P | Oil & Gas E&P |
| Core business | Occidental Petroleum is a major oil and gas producer with Permian Basin operations, international E&P (Colombia, Algeria, UAE), a chemicals division (OxyChem), and a growing carbon capture and low-carbon energy business (Oxy Low Carbon Ventures), with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway as a major shareholder. | APA Corporation (formerly Apache) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company with Permian Basin assets, North Sea oil production (UK and Egypt), and the Suriname offshore exploration program as a potentially significant future oil development. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Occidental's Permian Basin production growth, OxyChem earnings contribution as a chemicals profit buffer, debt reduction progress following the Anadarko Petroleum acquisition, and Buffett's ongoing share purchases as a vote of confidence. | Investors track APA's Permian production, North Sea cash flow contributions, Suriname exploration results as the key long-term catalyst, and capital return to shareholders as the company manages its balance sheet. |
- Berkshire Hathaway ownership stake and ongoing share purchases by Warren Buffett provide significant investor confidence and market credibility
- OxyChem chemicals division provides non-correlated earnings that cushion the impact of oil price downturns on Oxy's consolidated financials
- Carbon capture business (DAC technology) positions Occidental as a credible low-carbon energy transition company with government contract potential
- Suriname offshore exploration — APA holds significant offshore Suriname acreage that has shown promising hydrocarbon discovery potential, representing a potential large-scale development opportunity
- International diversification across U.S., UK, Egypt, and Suriname reduces dependence on a single oil region
- Disciplined capital allocation with focus on returns and shareholder distributions as the core capital framework
- Anadarko acquisition debt significantly elevated leverage — Oxy's balance sheet requires sustained higher oil prices to reduce debt to pre-acquisition levels
- Occidental's chemicals business margins can also be cyclical — if oil prices fall while chemicals margins compress simultaneously, the cushion effect is reduced
- Activist shareholders have historically challenged Oxy's large international exploration position relative to its high Permian potential
- Suriname development would require massive capital expenditure and carries significant execution risk as offshore development timelines are long and uncertain
- North Sea and Egypt assets are mature fields with naturally declining production requiring ongoing investment to maintain output
- APA's smaller scale versus major independents limits operating leverage and may make it more volatile in oil price downturns
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