LIVE
NRG
NRG Energy, Inc. · Utilities
$135.06
+9.17% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
VST
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$163.75
+21.56% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
NRG
3
VST
1
Comparison scoreboard
NRG LEADS 3/5AI Score
NRG ✓61.6
VST 50.1
1Y Return
NRG -11.19%
VST ✓-9.25%
Fwd P/E
NRG ✓10.79
VST 14.91
Target Up.
NRG ✓+58.98%
VST +36.18%
Op. Margin
NRG 3.64%
VST N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
NRG vs VST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NRG Energy and Vistra are both competitive merchant power companies benefiting from AI data center power demand growth, particularly in Texas. Vistra is larger, has nuclear assets positioning it for AI data center PPAs, and is the biggest Texas generator. NRG has retail electricity customer relationships creating recurring revenue beyond wholesale generation. Both are direct beneficiaries of the unprecedented power demand growth from AI infrastructure.
NRG vs VST is the Texas retail electricity giant bundling smart home services with competitive power in ERCOT's fast-growing AI data center market (NRG) versus the largest US competitive power generator with nuclear assets positioned for AI data center PPAs and dominant Texas ERCOT generation presence (Vistra) — retail electricity customer relationships vs generation scale and nuclear data center PPA positioning.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
NRG holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VST has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-9.25% vs -11.19%), though NRG trades at the lower forward P/E (10.79x vs 14.91x). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NRG (+58.98%) than for VST (+36.18%).
Normalized 1Y performance
NRG
VST
Recent returns
NRG
VST
Analyst price targets & sentiment
NRG · 8 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.3/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$89.00
analyst high$200.00
analyst mean$199.47
current price$135.06
+59.0% upside to analyst mean
VST · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.4/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$99.00
analyst high$320.00
analyst mean$223.00
current price$163.75
+36.2% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
NRG may suit investors who:
- →prefer merchant power with retail electricity customer relationships providing recurring revenue above wholesale generation — less direct commodity price exposure than pure generation
- →value NRG's Texas ERCOT retail presence capturing the fastest-growing US power demand market with AI data centers, manufacturing, and residential electrification
- →want Vivint smart home integration upside as NRG creates bundled home energy management + electricity offering reducing customer churn
- →are comfortable with ERCOT power price volatility, Vivint integration execution risk, and merchant power cyclicality from gas prices and weather
VST may suit investors who:
- →prefer the largest US competitive power generator with Texas ERCOT dominance and nuclear assets positioned for 24/7 carbon-free AI data center PPAs
- →value Vistra's scale across multiple power markets creating diversification vs Texas-concentrated peers, plus nuclear fleet upside from AI data center power contracting
- →want maximum AI power demand exposure through the largest US merchant generator in ERCOT plus nuclear PPA optionality similar to Constellation's Microsoft deal
- →are comfortable with merchant power cyclicality, coal plant transition costs, and nuclear operating expense requirements
Performance & AI score
| Metric | NRG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 61.6 | 50.1 |
| AI rank | #135 | #461 |
| Latest close | $135.06 | $163.75 |
| 1M return | +9.17% | +21.56% |
| 6M return | -9.65% | +2.65% |
| 1Y return | -11.19% | -9.25% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NRG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.85K (-11.5%) started 2025-06-18 | $9.12K (-8.8%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $46K (+360.0%) started 2021-06-21 | $112.84K (+1028.4%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $142.49K (+1324.9%) started 2016-06-20 | $203.82K (+1938.2%) started 2016-10-05 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | NRG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $26.47B | $55.21B |
| Trailing P/E | 136.38 | 27.38 |
| Forward P/E | 10.79 | 14.91 |
| Price/Sales | 1.04 | 2.84 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.55 | 3.87 |
| Analyst target | $199.47 | $223.00 |
| Target upside | +58.98% | +36.18% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | NRG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 19.50% | 43.40% |
| Earnings growth | -85.60% | N/A |
| EPS growth | -85.60% | N/A |
| FCF margin | +1.33% | +2.45% |
| Operating margin | 3.64% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 0.74% | 11.53% |
| ROIC proxy | 6.25% | 42.90% |
| Return on equity | 6.25% | 42.90% |
| Dividend yield | 1.51% | 0.57% |
| Beta | 1.22 | 1.41 |
| Debt/equity | 479.24 | 355.19 |
| Current ratio | 0.84 | 0.90 |
| Quick ratio | 0.33 | 0.26 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
NRG max drawdown34.44%
VST max drawdown38.01%
NRG max wkly drop13.77%
VST max wkly drop13.96%
5Y risk snapshot
NRG max drawdown34.44%
VST max drawdown48.80%
NRG max wkly drop23.62%
VST max wkly drop20.33%
10Y risk snapshot
NRG max drawdown48.76%
VST max drawdown53.32%
NRG max wkly drop27.14%
VST max wkly drop32.76%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | NRG | VST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -11.52% | -9.25% |
| CAGR | -11.53% | -9.25% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.14 | -0.05 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.44% | 38.01% | |
| Max daily drop | 13.61% | 12.64% | |
| Max wkly drop | 13.77% | 13.96% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +303.41% | +926.82% |
| CAGR | +32.23% | +59.34% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.79 | 1.12 | |
| Max drawdown | 34.44% | 48.80% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.08% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly drop | 23.62% | 20.33% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +1051.24% | +1342.29% |
| CAGR | +27.70% | +31.67% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.71 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdown | 48.76% | 53.32% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.71% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly drop | 27.14% | 32.76% |
Business comparison
| Category | NRG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NRG Energy, Inc. | Vistra Corp. |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Independent Power Producers | N/A |
| Core business | NRG Energy is a competitive (merchant) power generation and retail electricity company serving residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Texas (Reliant Energy), Northeast US, and other deregulated markets. NRG acquired Vivint Smart Home creating a bundled smart home + electricity offering. NRG has natural gas, oil, and some renewable generation in Texas and the Northeast. As one of the largest competitive retailers in Texas (ERCOT grid), NRG benefits from Texas power demand growth driven by data centers and industrial development. | Vistra is the largest competitive power generator in the US by capacity, operating natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage assets across multiple US markets including Texas (ERCOT), PJM, MISO, and others. Vistra's nuclear acquisition of Energy Harbor added a significant nuclear fleet — making Vistra both a large merchant natural gas generator and a nuclear operator. Vistra's nuclear assets position it for AI data center power purchase agreements similar to Constellation's TMI deal. Vistra's Texas ERCOT generation fleet is one of the largest in the state. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Texas ERCOT power prices and demand growth, retail electricity customer growth and churn, Vivint smart home integration, and AI data center power demand tailwinds. | Investors track Texas ERCOT capacity margins and power prices, nuclear PPA opportunities with AI data centers, and free cash flow generation across power cycles. |
NRG strengths
- →Texas ERCOT exposure: NRG's retail electricity presence in Texas captures growing AI data center and industrial load in one of the fastest-growing power markets in the US
- →Retail electricity business provides stable customer relationships — residential and commercial electricity customers create recurring revenue with margin above wholesale power prices
- →Vivint integration creates home energy management bundling — smart home + electricity creates cross-sell opportunity with lower churn than standalone electricity retail
VST strengths
- →Largest US competitive power generator: Vistra's scale across multiple power markets creates diversification and trading advantages that smaller competitors cannot match
- →Nuclear fleet from Energy Harbor acquisition: Vistra's nuclear plants are positioned for 24/7 carbon-free AI data center PPAs following Constellation's template
- →Texas ERCOT largest generator: Vistra's dominant Texas generation position captures the full economics of Texas power demand growth from data centers and electrification
Risks to watch — NRG
- →ERCOT power prices are volatile: Texas's isolated grid without federal reliability backstop creates extreme price spikes (Winter Storm Uri) and competitive market risk
- →Vivint acquisition integration costs and execution risk — smart home and electricity bundling is a novel business model with uncertain ultimate margin profile
- →Merchant power generation is inherently cyclical — gas prices, weather, and capacity additions affect NRG's generation margins
Risks to watch — VST
- →Merchant power is highly cyclical: Vistra's earnings are volatile with natural gas prices, weather patterns, and Texas power demand — extreme winter storms can swing earnings dramatically
- →Coal plant closures create transition costs and regulatory complexity as Vistra manages its coal fleet retirement timeline
- →Nuclear plant operating costs and maintenance are significant — nuclear's value proposition vs natural gas depends on gas price levels and carbon pricing policies
Frequently asked questions
Free public comparison
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Related comparisons
More comparisons
Browse all 1,000 comparisons →