GEV vs VST Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
GE Vernova and Vistra both offer exposure to rising electricity demand driven by AI data centers, but GE Vernova is an equipment and services supplier providing the turbines and grid technology that power producers and utilities need, while Vistra is a power generation company that directly owns and operates generation assets and sells electricity into wholesale and retail markets.
GE Vernova offers exposure to grid modernization and power equipment demand as an upstream supplier, while Vistra offers direct exposure to wholesale electricity pricing and generation capacity utilization. Consider whether you prefer GE Vernova's equipment supply exposure or Vistra's direct power generation and pricing exposure.
VST holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. GEV has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+63.24% vs -20.64%), though VST has the better forward P/E setup (14.40x vs 36.48x for GEV). On fundamentals, GEV is growing revenue faster (21.90%), while VST maintains the higher operating margin (13.77%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VST (+45.63%) than for GEV (+35.15%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to grid modernization and power equipment demand driven by rising AI data center electricity needs
- Value GE Vernova's strong order backlog growth in gas turbines and grid technology
- Prefer an equipment and services supplier over a direct power generation owner-operator
- Believe diversification across power generation equipment, grid technology, and wind can support long-term growth
- Want direct exposure to wholesale electricity pricing and generation capacity utilization
- Value Vistra's diverse generation fleet, including nuclear baseload capacity
- Believe rising data center and electrification-driven power demand will support generation margins
- Are comfortable with the volatility of wholesale power prices and regional market concentration
| Metric | GEV | VST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.2 | 54.1 |
| AI ranki | #461 | #304 |
| Latest closei | $941.95 | $149.30 |
| 1M returni | -7.47% | +6.20% |
| 6M returni | +15.58% | -10.81% |
| 1Y returni | +63.24% | -20.64% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GEV | VST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.73K (+57.3%) started 2025-09-04 | $7.87K (-21.3%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $66.53K (+565.3%) started 2024-04-01 | $94.38K (+843.8%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $66.53K (+565.3%) started 2024-04-01 | $183.61K (+1736.1%) started 2016-10-05 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GEV | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $243.67B | $50.11B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 26.24 | 25.18 |
| Forward P/Ei | 36.48 | 14.40 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 5.59 | 3.78 |
| Analyst targeti | $1,236.43 | $217.42 |
| Target upsidei | +35.15% | +45.63% |
| Metric | GEV | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 21.90% | -5.50% |
| Earnings growthi | 32.80% | -6.20% |
| EPS growthi | +32.80% | -6.20% |
| FCF margini | +38.01% | +0.19% |
| Operating margini | 7.47% | 13.77% |
| Profit margini | 23.04% | 11.55% |
| ROIC proxyi | 82.58% | 42.96% |
| Return on equityi | 82.58% | 42.96% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.22% | 0.62% |
| Betai | 1.03 | 1.41 |
| Debt/equityi | 28.36 | 373.28 |
| Current ratioi | 0.85 | 0.97 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.56 | 0.26 |
Over the past year, GEV and VST have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.42), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GEV | VST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +57.30% | -21.31% |
| CAGRi | +57.41% | -21.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.92% | 49.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.04 | -0.33 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.62 | -0.44 | |
| Max drawdowni | 24.57% | 38.18% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.82% | 31.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.91% | 23.52% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.90% | 25.33% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.50% | 12.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.05% | 14.35% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +564.26% | +763.72% |
| CAGRi | +118.20% | +54.02% | |
| Volatilityi | 53.20% | 48.37% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.65 | 1.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.53 | 1.53 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.29% | 48.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.82% | 31.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.57% | 12.07% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.01% | 16.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.52% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.79% | 20.33% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +564.26% | +1208.32% |
| CAGRi | +118.20% | +29.61% | |
| Volatilityi | 53.20% | 42.21% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.65 | 0.72 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.53 | 1.03 | |
| Max drawdowni | 38.29% | 53.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 19.82% | 31.49% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.57% | 14.12% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 11.01% | 18.23% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.52% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.79% | 32.76% |
| Category | GEV | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | GE Vernova Inc. | Vistra Corp. |
| Sector | Industrials | Utilities |
| Industry | Specialty Industrial Machinery | Utilities - Independent Power Producers |
| Core business | An energy equipment and services company spun off from General Electric, providing power generation equipment (gas turbines, wind), electrification and grid technology, and services to utilities and power producers globally. | An integrated power generation and retail electricity company operating a diverse fleet of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery storage generation assets, primarily serving markets in Texas and other US regions. |
| Investor focus | Equipment order backlog growth tied to grid modernization and AI data center power demand, gas turbine order momentum, and margin expansion across segments. | Power generation capacity utilization and pricing, nuclear and gas fleet reliability, and exposure to rising electricity demand from data centers and electrification. |
- Well-positioned equipment supplier to benefit from grid modernization and rising electricity demand driven by AI data centers
- Strong order backlog growth in gas turbines and grid equipment reflecting robust global demand for power infrastructure
- Diversified across power generation equipment, grid technology, and wind energy segments
- Diverse generation fleet including nuclear provides a mix of baseload and dispatchable power capacity
- Directly benefits from rising wholesale electricity prices driven by growing data center and AI power demand
- Vertically integrated retail electricity business provides some diversification alongside wholesale generation
- As an equipment and services provider, revenue recognition can lag order backlog growth, creating timing mismatches
- Wind energy segment has faced historical profitability challenges within the broader portfolio
- Margin expansion depends on successful execution of pricing and cost initiatives across a complex global business
- Wholesale power prices and generation margins can be volatile, tied to natural gas prices and weather-driven demand swings
- Regulatory and environmental policy changes can affect the economics of different generation fuel types over time
- Geographic concentration in specific power markets like Texas creates regional regulatory and weather exposure
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