VST vs TLN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Vistra offers a large, diversified generation and retail platform, while Talen is a more concentrated nuclear-focused play on data center power demand.
Investors weighing Vistra against Talen are choosing between a diversified power producer with retail hedges and a more focused nuclear bet tied to data center growth.
TLN holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TLN leads on both 1-year return (-12.13%) and forward P/E quality (10.23x vs 13.14x for VST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, TLN is growing revenue faster (111.20%), while VST maintains the higher operating margin (13.77%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VST (+61.92%) than for TLN (+47.93%).
- Want diversified exposure across generation fuel types and regions
- Value a retail electricity business that smooths wholesale price swings
- Are interested in data center demand growth without concentrated asset risk
- Can tolerate commodity price sensitivity in earnings
- Want concentrated exposure to nuclear baseload power
- Believe in the durability of data center colocation power agreements
- Are comfortable with a smaller, less diversified asset base
- Can tolerate regulatory uncertainty around behind-the-meter deals
| Metric | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 52.4 | 54.8 |
| AI rank | #338 | #252 |
| Latest close | $136.21 | $314.46 |
| 1M return | -18.31% | -16.68% |
| 6M return | -20.82% | -17.26% |
| 1Y return | -28.04% | -12.13% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.24K (-27.7%) started 2025-08-21 | $8.79K (-12.1%) started 2025-08-21 |
| 5Y ago | $91.21K (+812.1%) started 2021-08-23 | $67.63K (+576.3%) started 2023-06-02 |
| 10Y ago | $170.09K (+1600.9%) started 2016-10-05 | $67.63K (+576.3%) started 2023-06-02 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $45.72B | $15.07B |
| Trailing P/E | 22.97 | N/A |
| Forward P/E | 13.14 | 10.23 |
| Price/Sales | 2.38 | 4.03 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.55 | 6.53 |
| Analyst target | $220.56 | $465.19 |
| Target upside | +61.92% | +47.93% |
| Metric | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | -5.50% | 111.20% |
| Earnings growth | -6.20% | N/A |
| EPS growth | -6.20% | N/A |
| FCF margin | +0.19% | +33.73% |
| Operating margin | 13.77% | -4.80% |
| Profit margin | 11.55% | -4.95% |
| ROIC proxy | 42.96% | -12.83% |
| Return on equity | 42.96% | -12.83% |
| Dividend yield | 0.68% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 1.43 | 1.67 |
| Debt/equity | 373.28 | 584.14 |
| Current ratio | 0.97 | 0.78 |
| Quick ratio | 0.26 | 0.40 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -28.04% | -12.13% |
| CAGR | -28.06% | -12.14% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.51 | -0.05 | |
| Max drawdown | 38.01% | 32.05% | |
| Max daily drop | 12.64% | 11.31% | |
| Max wkly drop | 14.35% | 16.22% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +728.76% | +576.26% |
| CAGR | +52.73% | +81.06% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.03 | 1.35 | |
| Max drawdown | 48.80% | 33.80% | |
| Max daily drop | 28.27% | 21.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 20.33% | 18.21% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +1101.40% | +576.26% |
| CAGR | +28.63% | +81.06% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.71 | 1.35 | |
| Max drawdown | 53.32% | 33.80% | |
| Max daily drop | 28.27% | 21.59% | |
| Max wkly drop | 32.76% | 18.21% |
| Category | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Vistra Corp. | Talen Energy Corporation |
| Sector | Independent Power Producers | Independent Power Producers |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | Vistra is a diversified power generation and retail electricity company operating natural gas, nuclear, coal, and battery storage assets across multiple U.S. markets. | Talen Energy owns and operates power generation assets including the Susquehanna nuclear plant, with a growing focus on supplying power directly to data centers. |
| Investor focus | Watch for power price trends, data center-driven demand growth, and progress integrating its nuclear fleet into long-term contracts. | Watch for developments in its co-located data center power agreements and regulatory treatment of behind-the-meter nuclear deals. |
- Large, diversified generation fleet spanning multiple fuel types and regions
- Retail electricity business provides a hedge against wholesale price swings
- Growing demand from data centers supports long-term power pricing
- Susquehanna nuclear plant provides reliable, carbon-free baseload generation
- High-profile data center colocation agreements offer long-term revenue visibility
- Emerged from bankruptcy with a cleaner balance sheet than many peers
- Earnings remain sensitive to wholesale power and natural gas price volatility
- Coal and gas assets face longer-term environmental and regulatory pressure
- Integration risk and debt load from recent acquisitions
- Concentrated asset base creates less diversification than larger peers
- Regulatory scrutiny of large behind-the-meter power deals remains a risk
- Smaller scale limits flexibility compared to diversified generators
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