VST vs TLN Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Vistra offers a large, diversified generation and retail platform, while Talen is a more concentrated nuclear-focused play on data center power demand.
Investors weighing Vistra against Talen are choosing between a diversified power producer with retail hedges and a more focused nuclear bet tied to data center growth.
TLN holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. TLN leads on both 1-year return (-14.96%) and forward P/E quality (9.82x vs 15.50x for VST), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, TLN is growing revenue faster (111.20%), while VST maintains the higher operating margin (13.77%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TLN (+52.28%) than for VST (+30.20%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified exposure across generation fuel types and regions
- Value a retail electricity business that smooths wholesale price swings
- Are interested in data center demand growth without concentrated asset risk
- Can tolerate commodity price sensitivity in earnings
- Want concentrated exposure to nuclear baseload power
- Believe in the durability of data center colocation power agreements
- Are comfortable with a smaller, less diversified asset base
- Can tolerate regulatory uncertainty around behind-the-meter deals
| Metric | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 59.4 | 54.5 |
| AI ranki | #151 | #248 |
| Latest closei | $154.17 | $353.60 |
| 1M returni | +8.93% | +25.32% |
| 3M returni | +1.06% | -3.99% |
| 6M returni | -6.86% | -2.43% |
| 1Y returni | -26.88% | -14.96% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $7.33K (-26.7%) started 2025-10-16 | $8.46K (-15.4%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $93.37K (+833.7%) started 2021-10-18 | $76.04K (+660.4%) started 2023-06-02 |
| 10Y ago | $182.53K (+1725.3%) started 2016-10-17 | $76.04K (+660.4%) started 2023-06-02 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $54.2B | $14.47B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 27.23 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.50 | 9.82 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.00 | 6.26 |
| Analyst targeti | $210.25 | $459.94 |
| Target upsidei | +30.20% | +52.28% |
| Metric | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -5.50% | 111.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -6.20% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -6.20% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +0.19% | +33.73% |
| Operating margini | 13.77% | -4.80% |
| Profit margini | 11.55% | -4.95% |
| ROIC proxyi | 42.96% | -12.83% |
| Return on equityi | 42.96% | -12.83% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.57% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 15.35% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.38 | 1.67 |
| Debt/equityi | 373.28 | 584.14 |
| Current ratioi | 0.97 | 0.78 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.26 | 0.40 |
Over the past year, VST and TLN have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.81), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -26.73% | -15.41% |
| CAGRi | -26.76% | -15.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 49.80% | 56.59% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.47 | -0.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.63 | -0.13 | |
| Max drawdowni | 35.97% | 35.60% | |
| Current drawdowni | 26.73% | 19.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 24.24% | 15.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.16% | 17.87% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.76% | 11.31% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 14.35% | 16.22% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +762.04% | +660.43% |
| CAGRi | +53.92% | +82.48% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.58% | 50.75% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.05 | 1.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.52 | 2.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.80% | 36.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.25% | 20.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.66% | 8.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.09% | 13.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.27% | 21.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.33% | 18.21% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1200.65% | +660.43% |
| CAGRi | +29.26% | +82.48% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.39% | 50.75% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.72 | 1.36 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.02 | 2.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 53.32% | 36.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.25% | 20.69% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.36% | 8.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.48% | 13.05% | |
| Max daily dropi | 28.27% | 21.59% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.76% | 18.21% |
| Category | VST | TLN |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Vistra Corp. | Talen Energy Corporation |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Utilities - Independent Power Producers |
| Core business | Vistra is a diversified power generation and retail electricity company operating natural gas, nuclear, coal, and battery storage assets across multiple U.S. markets. | Talen Energy owns and operates power generation assets including the Susquehanna nuclear plant, with a growing focus on supplying power directly to data centers. |
| Investor focus | Watch for power price trends, data center-driven demand growth, and progress integrating its nuclear fleet into long-term contracts. | Watch for developments in its co-located data center power agreements and regulatory treatment of behind-the-meter nuclear deals. |
- Large, diversified generation fleet spanning multiple fuel types and regions
- Retail electricity business provides a hedge against wholesale price swings
- Growing demand from data centers supports long-term power pricing
- Susquehanna nuclear plant provides reliable, carbon-free baseload generation
- High-profile data center colocation agreements offer long-term revenue visibility
- Emerged from bankruptcy with a cleaner balance sheet than many peers
- Earnings remain sensitive to wholesale power and natural gas price volatility
- Coal and gas assets face longer-term environmental and regulatory pressure
- Integration risk and debt load from recent acquisitions
- Concentrated asset base creates less diversification than larger peers
- Regulatory scrutiny of large behind-the-meter power deals remains a risk
- Smaller scale limits flexibility compared to diversified generators
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