brimindinvest.com / compare / ceg-vs-vstLIVE
CEG
Constellation Energy Corporation · Utilities
$265.70
-13.68% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
VST
Vistra Corp. · Utilities
$159.74
+2.87% this month
AI Score
53.4vs50.7
CEG ↑1Y Return
-13.21%vs-4.13%
VST ↑Forward P/E
21.12xvs14.58x
VST ↑Target Upside
+27.89%vs+41.04%
VST ↑Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
CEG
1
VST
3
Metrics last refreshed: 6/2/2026
Quick take
CEG vs VST: Which Power Stock Wins the AI Energy Trade?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Constellation Energy is the purer nuclear play with the larger fleet and the cleaner balance sheet, while Vistra is more diversified across nuclear, gas, and retail electricity with more active capital returns. Both are direct beneficiaries of surging AI data center electricity demand and the premium placed on always-on, low-carbon power.
Use this CEG vs VST comparison to evaluate two ways to invest in the AI-driven power demand cycle. CEG offers cleaner nuclear exposure and premium carbon-free pricing; VST offers more asset diversification and a more active buyback program.
Live analysis · updated 6/2/2026
VST holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VST leads on both 1-year return (-4.13%) and forward P/E (14.58x vs 21.12x for CEG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VST (+41.04%) than for CEG (+27.89%).
Comparison scoreboard
VST LEADS 3/5AI Score
CEG ✓53.4
VST 50.7
1Y Return
CEG -13.21%
VST ✓-4.13%
Fwd P/E
CEG 21.12
VST ✓14.58
Target Up.
CEG +27.89%
VST ✓+41.04%
Op. Margin
CEG 21.86%
VST N/A
Normalized 1Y performance
CEG
VST
Recent returns
CEG
VST
Analyst price targets & sentiment
CEG · 13 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$184.05
analyst high$385.00
analyst mean$368.02
current price$265.70
+27.9% upside to analyst mean
VST · 17 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.4/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$99.00
analyst high$320.00
analyst mean$225.29
current price$159.74
+41.0% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
CEG may suit investors who:
- →Want the purest large-scale nuclear and carbon-free power exposure in US equity markets
- →Believe hyperscaler demand for clean, dispatchable baseload power will command a durable premium
- →Prefer a less gas-exposed utility with more predictable earnings from long-term contracts
- →Want exposure to the Calpine acquisition as a scale-building catalyst
VST may suit investors who:
- →Want a diversified power platform spanning nuclear, gas, solar, and retail electricity
- →Value an active share buyback program as a meaningful return-of-capital driver
- →Are comfortable with some natural gas price exposure in exchange for a more diversified fleet
- →Believe VST's Energy Harbor nuclear expansion provides a cleaner energy growth runway
Performance & AI score
| Metric | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 53.4 | 50.7 |
| AI rank | #296 | #420 |
| Latest close | $265.70 | $159.74 |
| 1M return | -13.68% | +2.87% |
| 6M return | -27.08% | -7.75% |
| 1Y return | -13.21% | -4.13% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.48K (-15.2%) started 2025-06-02 | $9.64K (-3.6%) started 2025-06-02 |
| 5Y ago | $67.38K (+573.8%) started 2022-01-19 | $116.79K (+1067.9%) started 2021-06-02 |
| 10Y ago | $67.38K (+573.8%) started 2022-01-19 | $198.83K (+1888.3%) started 2016-10-05 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $103.93B | $53.86B |
| Trailing P/E | 25.00 | 26.76 |
| Forward P/E | 21.12 | 14.58 |
| Price/Sales | 3.87 | 2.77 |
| EV/Revenue | 4.21 | 3.80 |
| Analyst target | $368.02 | $225.29 |
| Target upside | +27.89% | +41.04% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 63.80% | 43.40% |
| Earnings growth | 1091.00% | N/A |
| EPS growth | +1091.00% | N/A |
| FCF margin | -15.00% | +2.45% |
| Operating margin | 21.86% | N/A |
| Profit margin | 12.69% | 11.53% |
| ROIC proxy | 16.10% | 42.90% |
| Return on equity | 16.10% | 42.90% |
| Dividend yield | 0.59% | 0.59% |
| Beta | 1.16 | 1.45 |
| Debt/equity | 66.43 | 355.19 |
| Current ratio | 1.36 | 0.90 |
| Quick ratio | 0.48 | 0.26 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
CEG max drawdown38.84%
VST max drawdown38.01%
CEG max wkly drop15.28%
VST max wkly drop13.96%
5Y risk snapshot
CEG max drawdown50.70%
VST max drawdown48.80%
CEG max wkly drop19.29%
VST max wkly drop20.33%
10Y risk snapshot
CEG max drawdown50.70%
VST max drawdown53.32%
CEG max wkly drop19.29%
VST max wkly drop32.76%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -15.23% | -4.13% |
| CAGR | -15.29% | -4.13% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.22 | 0.06 | |
| Max drawdown | 38.84% | 38.01% | |
| Max daily drop | 10.90% | 12.64% | |
| Max wkly drop | 15.28% | 13.96% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +552.75% | +953.33% |
| CAGR | +53.69% | +60.16% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.03 | 1.14 | |
| Max drawdown | 50.70% | 48.80% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.85% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly drop | 19.29% | 20.33% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +552.75% | +1306.97% |
| CAGR | +53.69% | +31.50% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.03 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdown | 50.70% | 53.32% | |
| Max daily drop | 20.85% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly drop | 19.29% | 32.76% |
Business comparison
| Category | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Constellation Energy Corporation | Vistra Corp. |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Renewable | N/A |
| Core business | Operator of the largest US nuclear fleet with retail and wholesale electricity businesses. Pursuing long-term power purchase agreements with hyperscalers and data center operators for carbon-free electricity. | Diversified power generator and retail electricity retailer with nuclear, natural gas, and solar assets. Completed Energy Harbor acquisition expanding its nuclear fleet. |
| Investor focus | Nuclear fleet utilization, AI data center power agreements (e.g. Microsoft), clean energy premium pricing, and the Calpine acquisition. | Nuclear and gas fleet optimization, retail electricity margins, AI data center power deals, and capital return via buybacks. |
CEG strengths
- →Largest nuclear power operator in the US with 21 reactors — lowest-carbon large-scale baseload fleet
- →High-value long-term power agreements with hyperscalers and data center operators
- →Nuclear energy increasingly valued as dispatchable clean power for corporate buyers
VST strengths
- →Diversified generation mix (nuclear, gas, solar) across multiple deregulated markets
- →Growing nuclear exposure via Energy Harbor acquisition adds clean energy optionality
- →Active capital return program via share buybacks supports per-share earnings growth
Risks to watch — CEG
- →Nuclear plant maintenance, safety, and regulatory risk
- →Power purchase agreement pricing tied to clean energy policy and regulation
- →Calpine acquisition integration execution and leverage
Risks to watch — VST
- →Natural gas price exposure introduces earnings volatility not present in CEG's nuclear-first model
- →Retail electricity margins can compress in competitive deregulated markets
- →Higher leverage relative to CEG from the Energy Harbor acquisition
Frequently asked questions
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