CEG vs VST: Which Power Stock Wins the AI Energy Trade?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Constellation Energy is the purer nuclear play with the larger fleet and the cleaner balance sheet, while Vistra is more diversified across nuclear, gas, and retail electricity with more active capital returns. Both are direct beneficiaries of surging AI data center electricity demand and the premium placed on always-on, low-carbon power.
Use this CEG vs VST comparison to evaluate two ways to invest in the AI-driven power demand cycle. CEG offers cleaner nuclear exposure and premium carbon-free pricing; VST offers more asset diversification and a more active buyback program.
VST holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. VST leads on both 1-year return (-27.90%) and forward P/E quality (15.50x vs 20.74x for CEG), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CEG is growing revenue faster (23.00%), while VST maintains the higher operating margin (13.77%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VST (+30.20%) than for CEG (+25.86%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the purest large-scale nuclear and carbon-free power exposure in US equity markets
- Believe hyperscaler demand for clean, dispatchable baseload power will command a durable premium
- Prefer a less gas-exposed utility with more predictable earnings from long-term contracts
- Want exposure to the Calpine acquisition as a scale-building catalyst
- Want a diversified power platform spanning nuclear, gas, solar, and retail electricity
- Value an active share buyback program as a meaningful return-of-capital driver
- Are comfortable with some natural gas price exposure in exchange for a more diversified fleet
- Believe VST's Energy Harbor nuclear expansion provides a cleaner energy growth runway
| Metric | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 49.9 | 59.3 |
| AI ranki | #433 | #151 |
| Latest closei | $271.37 | $152.02 |
| 1M returni | +4.56% | +8.28% |
| 3M returni | +7.52% | -2.20% |
| 6M returni | -8.39% | -7.00% |
| 1Y returni | -32.82% | -27.90% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.84K (-31.6%) started 2025-10-16 | $7.23K (-27.7%) started 2025-10-16 |
| 5Y ago | $68.82K (+588.2%) started 2022-01-19 | $92.07K (+820.7%) started 2021-10-18 |
| 10Y ago | $68.82K (+588.2%) started 2022-01-19 | $179.99K (+1699.9%) started 2016-10-17 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $98.05B | $54.2B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 27.03 | 27.23 |
| Forward P/Ei | 20.74 | 15.50 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.87 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.91 | 4.00 |
| Analyst targeti | $348.30 | $210.25 |
| Target upsidei | +25.86% | +30.20% |
| Metric | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 23.00% | -5.50% |
| Earnings growthi | -46.80% | -6.20% |
| EPS growthi | -46.80% | -6.20% |
| FCF margini | -21.19% | +0.19% |
| Operating margini | 8.66% | 13.77% |
| Profit margini | 11.08% | 11.55% |
| ROIC proxyi | 15.06% | 42.96% |
| Return on equityi | 15.06% | 42.96% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.62% | 0.57% |
| Payout ratioi | 15.92% | 15.35% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.12 | 1.38 |
| Debt/equityi | 76.42 | 373.28 |
| Current ratioi | 1.46 | 0.97 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.47 | 0.26 |
Over the past year, CEG and VST have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.81), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -31.56% | -27.75% |
| CAGRi | -31.60% | -27.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 48.51% | 49.81% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.63 | -0.49 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.87 | -0.67 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.09% | 35.97% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.40% | 27.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.17% | 24.24% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.02% | 25.17% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.90% | 12.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 15.28% | 14.35% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +566.67% | +750.02% |
| CAGRi | +49.22% | +53.49% | |
| Volatilityi | 49.08% | 48.58% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.97 | 1.04 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.50 | 1.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.70% | 48.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.82% | 30.24% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.19% | 12.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.49% | 17.10% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.85% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.29% | 20.33% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +566.67% | +1182.51% |
| CAGRi | +49.22% | +29.07% | |
| Volatilityi | 49.08% | 42.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.97 | 0.71 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.50 | 1.01 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.70% | 53.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 32.82% | 30.24% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.19% | 14.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.49% | 18.48% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.85% | 28.27% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.29% | 32.76% |
| Category | CEG | VST |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Constellation Energy Corporation | Vistra Corp. |
| Sector | Utilities | Utilities |
| Industry | Utilities - Independent Power Producers | Utilities - Independent Power Producers |
| Core business | Operator of the largest US nuclear fleet with retail and wholesale electricity businesses. Pursuing long-term power purchase agreements with hyperscalers and data center operators for carbon-free electricity. | Diversified power generator and retail electricity retailer with nuclear, natural gas, and solar assets. Completed Energy Harbor acquisition expanding its nuclear fleet. |
| Investor focus | Nuclear fleet utilization, AI data center power agreements (e.g. Microsoft), clean energy premium pricing, and the Calpine acquisition. | Nuclear and gas fleet optimization, retail electricity margins, AI data center power deals, and capital return via buybacks. |
- Largest nuclear power operator in the US with 21 reactors — lowest-carbon large-scale baseload fleet
- High-value long-term power agreements with hyperscalers and data center operators
- Nuclear energy increasingly valued as dispatchable clean power for corporate buyers
- Diversified generation mix (nuclear, gas, solar) across multiple deregulated markets
- Growing nuclear exposure via Energy Harbor acquisition adds clean energy optionality
- Active capital return program via share buybacks supports per-share earnings growth
- Nuclear plant maintenance, safety, and regulatory risk
- Power purchase agreement pricing tied to clean energy policy and regulation
- Calpine acquisition integration execution and leverage
- Natural gas price exposure introduces earnings volatility not present in CEG's nuclear-first model
- Retail electricity margins can compress in competitive deregulated markets
- Higher leverage relative to CEG from the Energy Harbor acquisition
Compare more than two at a time
This page is a fixed writeup on CEG and VST. Our comparison engine is the interactive version: load up to five tickers, switch timeframes, and get the correlation, drawdown, and overlap analysis that a static page can't show.
Add three more names beside CEG and VST, mixing stocks and ETFs in the same table — useful when the real question is which of a whole peer group to own.
AI score, forward P/E, analyst target upside, operating margin, and revenue growth are scored head-to-head, with a running tally of which ticker leads on how many metrics.
Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
Pairwise daily-return correlation for every combination, so you can see whether two holdings actually diversify each other or just move together.
A scatter plot of forward P/E against return on equity, plus drawdown and 30-day rolling volatility charts, to separate what is cheap from what is merely beaten down.
For ETFs, a top-holdings comparison that exposes hidden overlap between funds. Every comparison exports to CSV for your own spreadsheet work.
Two comparisons a week are free without an account. A 14-day trial removes the limit and adds AI price forecasts, stock rankings, saved watchlists, and the intrinsic value calculator — no credit card required.
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.