CRDO vs LITE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Credo Technology and Lumentum both address AI data center connectivity but through different technologies and end-market mixes. Credo is a pure-play AI AEC/SerDes company at an early commercial stage; Lumentum is a diversified photonics company with data center transceivers as one of several revenue streams alongside 3D sensing and telecom optics. Credo offers more concentrated AI connectivity upside; Lumentum offers more diversification.
CRDO vs LITE is a choice between concentrated AI cluster electrical connectivity (Credo's AEC) and diversified optical photonics exposure (Lumentum's VCSELs, transceivers, coherent) — Credo has higher revenue growth momentum from AI cluster intra-rack, while Lumentum has broader photonics applications reducing single-theme risk.
CRDO holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LITE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+442.80% vs +2.08%), though CRDO has the better forward P/E setup (17.21x vs 25.85x for LITE). CRDO leads on both revenue growth (157.00%) and operating margin (35.66%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CRDO (+67.71%) than for LITE (+33.42%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer a pure-play AI data center interconnect company with concentrated AEC and SerDes licensing revenue
- value the HiWire AEC's cost and power advantages over optical alternatives at AI GPU cluster intra-rack distances
- want high revenue growth potential from an early-stage hyperscaler AI interconnect winner
- are comfortable with single-customer concentration and the risks of a single-technology thesis
- prefer diversified photonics exposure across data center transceivers, 3D sensing, and telecom coherent optics
- value VCSEL leadership in both AI data center and Apple iPhone 3D sensing as dual growth drivers
- want optical components exposure with revenue diversification across multiple end markets
- are comfortable with Apple iPhone cycle concentration in the 3D sensing segment and optical ASP pressure
| Metric | CRDO | LITE |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 58.6 | 85.3 |
| AI ranki | #203 | #5 |
| Latest closei | $175.89 | $930.91 |
| 1M returni | -25.10% | +12.48% |
| 6M returni | +70.11% | +20.56% |
| 1Y returni | +2.08% | +442.80% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CRDO | LITE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.21K (+2.1%) started 2025-09-18 | $54.28K (+442.8%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $150.98K (+1409.8%) started 2022-01-27 | $109.79K (+997.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $150.98K (+1409.8%) started 2022-01-27 | $229.57K (+2195.7%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | CRDO | LITE |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $31.13B | $77.21B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 66.26 | 156.17 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.21 | 25.85 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 40.44 |
| EV/Revenuei | 27.80 | 25.51 |
| Analyst targeti | $277.81 | $1,148.43 |
| Target upsidei | +67.71% | +33.42% |
| Metric | CRDO | LITE |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 157.00% | 109.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 343.20% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +343.20% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +18.79% | +7.46% |
| Operating margini | 35.66% | 27.95% |
| Profit margini | 35.37% | -230.10% |
| ROIC proxyi | 34.41% | -240.03% |
| Return on equityi | 34.41% | -240.03% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 3.23 | 1.51 |
| Debt/equityi | 1.23 | 35.99 |
| Current ratioi | 10.15 | 1.68 |
| Quick ratioi | 8.51 | 1.32 |
Over the past year, CRDO and LITE have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.44), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | CRDO | LITE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +2.08% | +442.80% |
| CAGRi | +2.08% | +443.43% | |
| Volatilityi | 95.58% | 97.83% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.45 | 2.18 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.66 | 3.53 | |
| Max drawdowni | 53.59% | 42.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 41.86% | 11.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.12% | 10.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.32% | 13.73% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.04% | 14.19% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.66% | 27.40% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +1409.79% | +997.90% |
| CAGRi | +79.49% | +61.57% | |
| Volatilityi | 82.97% | 63.89% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.08 | 1.00 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.63 | 1.51 | |
| Max drawdowni | 62.04% | 66.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 41.86% | 11.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.69% | 30.29% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.44% | 36.79% | |
| Max daily dropi | 46.80% | 22.46% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 51.50% | 27.40% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1409.79% | +2195.71% |
| CAGRi | +79.49% | +36.82% | |
| Volatilityi | 82.97% | 58.39% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.08 | 0.76 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.63 | 1.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 62.04% | 66.89% | |
| Current drawdowni | 41.86% | 11.60% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.69% | 24.63% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.44% | 30.22% | |
| Max daily dropi | 46.80% | 32.98% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 51.50% | 31.75% |
| Category | CRDO | LITE |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd | Lumentum Holdings Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Communication Equipment |
| Core business | Credo Technology designs SerDes ICs and HiWire active electrical cable (AEC) assemblies for hyperscale AI data center intra-rack connectivity. Its AEC technology competes against active optical cables at shorter reach distances by offering lower power and cost. Design wins at Microsoft Azure have driven rapid revenue growth. Credo is fabless with SerDes IP licensing providing recurring high-margin revenue. | Lumentum is a photonics and optical components company producing vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs), optical transceivers, coherent optical modules, and laser equipment for 3D sensing and industrial applications. Its data center interconnect products serve hyperscalers with 400G and 800G optical transceivers. Lumentum also has a significant 3D sensing laser business for consumer electronics (Face ID-type applications in mobile devices) that provides revenue diversification. |
| Investor focus | Investors track hyperscaler customer diversification beyond Microsoft, design-win announcements for 800G and 1.6T solutions, AEC volume ramp, and gross margin trajectory as production scales. | Investors track data center transceiver revenue as AI infrastructure deployments accelerate, 3D sensing laser revenue tied to Apple iPhone face recognition demand, and gross margin trends as coherent optical module mix changes. |
- HiWire AEC validated at scale in Microsoft Azure GPU cluster deployments
- SerDes IP licensing provides recurring high-margin revenue alongside AEC product sales
- Fabless model with concentrated AI interconnect focus enables deep customer integration
- Leading VCSEL technology for 3D sensing and data center optical transceivers
- Diversified revenue across data center interconnect, telecom coherent optics, and 3D sensing consumer applications
- Coherent optical module portfolio serves the telecom network capacity build-out alongside data center growth
- Single dominant customer (Microsoft) creates material revenue concentration risk
- Lumentum and Coherent's optical transceivers compete against AEC at longer intra-cluster distances
- Technology transition to co-packaged optics could reduce AEC demand at high port speeds
- 3D sensing revenue is highly concentrated in Apple iPhone new product cycles, creating lumpy demand
- Optical transceiver ASP compression as VCSEL and silicon photonics production scales across multiple vendors
- Coherent Corp and II-VI background competition directly targets Lumentum's optical transceiver market segments
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