NVDA vs INTC: NVIDIA vs Intel — Which Semiconductor Stock Wins?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NVIDIA is the dominant force in AI compute with a software moat and explosive revenue growth, while Intel is a legacy semiconductor giant in the middle of a difficult turnaround — rebuilding process technology, losing CPU share, and attempting to establish a foundry services business. The comparison is essentially high-multiple AI growth vs. deep-value turnaround.
Use this NVDA vs INTC comparison to evaluate where you want to be in semiconductors: paying a premium for the AI hardware leader or accepting short-term pain for potential recovery upside. Intel's risk-reward depends heavily on whether its 18A process node succeeds and whether it can win external foundry customers.
NVDA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. INTC has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+320.17% vs +17.90%), though NVDA has the better forward P/E setup (15.81x vs 58.90x for INTC). NVDA leads on both revenue growth (85.20%) and operating margin (65.60%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+49.06%) than for INTC (+12.27%).
- →Want to own the dominant AI training and inference chip platform
- →Are comfortable paying a high multiple for compounding market leadership
- →Believe the CUDA ecosystem creates a durable long-term software and hardware moat
- →Want full-stack AI infrastructure exposure across chips, networking, and software
- →See a deep-value turnaround opportunity in a historically important technology company
- →Believe Intel's 18A process node and foundry strategy will succeed
- →Want exposure to US domestic semiconductor manufacturing policy tailwinds
- →Are patient with a multi-year recovery timeline and comfortable with ongoing execution risk
| Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 83.3 | 57.2 |
| AI rank | #4 | #250 |
| Latest close | $203.28 | $97.06 |
| 1M return | -3.52% | -27.56% |
| 6M return | +9.16% | +106.69% |
| 1Y return | +17.90% | +320.17% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.86K (+18.6%) started 2025-07-21 | $41.73K (+317.3%) started 2025-07-21 |
| 5Y ago | $105.16K (+951.6%) started 2021-07-21 | $20.7K (+107.0%) started 2021-07-21 |
| 10Y ago | $1.58M (+15745.8%) started 2016-07-21 | $44.87K (+348.7%) started 2016-07-21 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $4.91T | $477.67B |
| Trailing P/E | 31.06 | 759.17 |
| Forward P/E | 15.81 | 58.90 |
| Price/Sales | 23.66 | 1.65 |
| EV/Revenue | 19.20 | 9.37 |
| Analyst target | $302.31 | $106.70 |
| Target upside | +49.06% | +12.27% |
| Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 85.20% | 7.20% |
| Earnings growth | 214.50% | N/A |
| EPS growth | +214.50% | N/A |
| FCF margin | +18.28% | -15.44% |
| Operating margin | 65.60% | 6.88% |
| Profit margin | 62.97% | -5.90% |
| ROIC proxy | 114.29% | -2.91% |
| Return on equity | 114.29% | -2.91% |
| Dividend yield | 0.49% | N/A |
| Beta | 2.21 | 2.19 |
| Debt/equity | 6.55 | 36.03 |
| Current ratio | 3.44 | 2.31 |
| Quick ratio | 2.14 | 1.66 |
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +18.61% | +317.28% |
| CAGR | +18.70% | +319.78% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.53 | 2.18 | |
| Max drawdown | 20.22% | 32.57% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.20% | 17.03% | |
| Max wkly drop | 10.72% | 21.05% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +949.45% | +88.62% |
| CAGR | +60.06% | +13.54% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.08 | 0.42 | |
| Max drawdown | 66.34% | 65.04% | |
| Max daily drop | 16.97% | 26.06% | |
| Max wkly drop | 22.20% | 37.83% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +15458.85% | +252.20% |
| CAGR | +65.68% | +13.42% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 1.17 | 0.41 | |
| Max drawdown | 66.34% | 70.80% | |
| Max daily drop | 18.76% | 26.06% | |
| Max wkly drop | 28.36% | 37.83% |
| Category | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NVIDIA Corporation | Intel Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| Core business | Designer of GPUs and AI accelerators for data centers, gaming, and professional visualisation. The dominant supplier of AI training and inference chips with the CUDA software ecosystem. | Legacy CPU manufacturer pursuing a foundry services business (Intel Foundry) alongside PC and data center processor products. Undergoing a major restructuring and product roadmap rebuild. |
| Investor focus | Data center AI chip demand from hyperscalers and sovereign AI programs, Blackwell architecture ramp, software/networking revenue growth, and margin sustainability. | 18A process node success and external foundry customer wins, Panther Lake PC CPU launch, cost reduction and headcount restructuring, and cash management through the capex cycle. |
- →Dominant market position in AI training chips with CUDA as an entrenched software ecosystem
- →Blackwell architecture represents a generational leap in AI compute per dollar
- →Expanding into networking (InfiniBand, Ethernet), software (NIM, NeMo), and full-stack AI infrastructure
- →Substantial installed base in enterprise PC and server CPU markets provides revenue durability
- →Intel Foundry Services targeting external customers could become a US domestic semiconductor supply alternative
- →US CHIPS Act funding provides some capital support for domestic fab investments
- →Extreme valuation pricing in multiple years of continued dominance
- →AMD and custom silicon from hyperscalers as competitive threats over time
- →Export restrictions to China limiting an important revenue market
- →Continued market share losses in PC and server CPUs to AMD
- →18A process node execution risk — delays would be damaging to the foundry strategy
- →Heavy capital expenditure requirements amid declining revenue and margins
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