NVDA vs INTC: NVIDIA vs Intel — Which Semiconductor Stock Wins?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NVIDIA is the dominant force in AI compute with a software moat and explosive revenue growth, while Intel is a legacy semiconductor giant in the middle of a difficult turnaround — rebuilding process technology, losing CPU share, and attempting to establish a foundry services business. The comparison is essentially high-multiple AI growth vs. deep-value turnaround.
Use this NVDA vs INTC comparison to evaluate where you want to be in semiconductors: paying a premium for the AI hardware leader or accepting short-term pain for potential recovery upside. Intel's risk-reward depends heavily on whether its 18A process node succeeds and whether it can win external foundry customers.
NVDA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. INTC has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+289.27% vs +34.20%), though NVDA has the better forward P/E setup (14.21x vs 43.86x for INTC). NVDA leads on both revenue growth (105.90%) and operating margin (66.24%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+48.66%) than for INTC (+28.40%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want to own the dominant AI training and inference chip platform
- Are comfortable paying a high multiple for compounding market leadership
- Believe the CUDA ecosystem creates a durable long-term software and hardware moat
- Want full-stack AI infrastructure exposure across chips, networking, and software
- See a deep-value turnaround opportunity in a historically important technology company
- Believe Intel's 18A process node and foundry strategy will succeed
- Want exposure to US domestic semiconductor manufacturing policy tailwinds
- Are patient with a multi-year recovery timeline and comfortable with ongoing execution risk
| Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 87.6 | 58.0 |
| AI ranki | #4 | #179 |
| Latest closei | $230.36 | $95.80 |
| 1M returni | +5.08% | -5.20% |
| 6M returni | +29.55% | +120.64% |
| 1Y returni | +34.20% | +289.27% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.79K (+37.9%) started 2025-09-05 | $39.12K (+291.2%) started 2025-09-05 |
| 5Y ago | $102.03K (+920.3%) started 2021-09-07 | $21.12K (+111.2%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $1.51M (+14984.4%) started 2016-09-06 | $40.81K (+308.1%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $5.25T | $472.95B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 27.47 | 759.17 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.21 | 43.86 |
| Price/Salesi | 23.66 | 1.65 |
| EV/Revenuei | 17.23 | 8.55 |
| Analyst targeti | $323.42 | $114.88 |
| Target upsidei | +48.66% | +28.40% |
| Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 105.90% | 25.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 127.80% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +127.80% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +13.80% | +8.53% |
| Operating margini | 66.24% | 12.19% |
| Profit margini | 63.66% | -19.79% |
| ROIC proxyi | 117.21% | -10.71% |
| Return on equityi | 117.21% | -10.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.46% | N/A |
| Betai | 2.21 | 2.24 |
| Debt/equityi | 16.97 | 49.00 |
| Current ratioi | 4.59 | 1.60 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.92 | 1.16 |
Over the past year, NVDA and INTC have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.37), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +37.92% | +291.18% |
| CAGRi | +38.05% | +292.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.12% | 79.05% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.92 | 2.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.39 | 3.68 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.22% | 41.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.28% | 32.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.79% | 12.21% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.11% | 16.36% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.20% | 17.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.72% | 21.05% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +918.41% | +93.87% |
| CAGRi | +59.17% | +14.18% | |
| Volatilityi | 52.03% | 54.62% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.07 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.65 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.34% | 65.04% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.28% | 32.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.74% | 33.70% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.20% | 38.46% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.97% | 26.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.20% | 37.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +14738.78% | +223.31% |
| CAGRi | +64.91% | +12.46% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.07% | 45.57% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.16 | 0.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.77 | 0.58 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.34% | 70.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 2.28% | 32.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.47% | 27.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.77% | 34.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.76% | 26.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.36% | 37.83% |
| Category | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NVIDIA Corporation | Intel Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| Core business | Designer of GPUs and AI accelerators for data centers, gaming, and professional visualisation. The dominant supplier of AI training and inference chips with the CUDA software ecosystem. | Legacy CPU manufacturer pursuing a foundry services business (Intel Foundry) alongside PC and data center processor products. Undergoing a major restructuring and product roadmap rebuild. |
| Investor focus | Data center AI chip demand from hyperscalers and sovereign AI programs, Blackwell architecture ramp, software/networking revenue growth, and margin sustainability. | 18A process node success and external foundry customer wins, Panther Lake PC CPU launch, cost reduction and headcount restructuring, and cash management through the capex cycle. |
- Dominant market position in AI training chips with CUDA as an entrenched software ecosystem
- Blackwell architecture represents a generational leap in AI compute per dollar
- Expanding into networking (InfiniBand, Ethernet), software (NIM, NeMo), and full-stack AI infrastructure
- Substantial installed base in enterprise PC and server CPU markets provides revenue durability
- Intel Foundry Services targeting external customers could become a US domestic semiconductor supply alternative
- US CHIPS Act funding provides some capital support for domestic fab investments
- Extreme valuation pricing in multiple years of continued dominance
- AMD and custom silicon from hyperscalers as competitive threats over time
- Export restrictions to China limiting an important revenue market
- Continued market share losses in PC and server CPUs to AMD
- 18A process node execution risk — delays would be damaging to the foundry strategy
- Heavy capital expenditure requirements amid declining revenue and margins
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