NVDA vs INTC: NVIDIA vs Intel — Which Semiconductor Stock Wins?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NVIDIA is the dominant force in AI compute with a software moat and explosive revenue growth, while Intel is a legacy semiconductor giant in the middle of a difficult turnaround — rebuilding process technology, losing CPU share, and attempting to establish a foundry services business. The comparison is essentially high-multiple AI growth vs. deep-value turnaround.
Use this NVDA vs INTC comparison to evaluate where you want to be in semiconductors: paying a premium for the AI hardware leader or accepting short-term pain for potential recovery upside. Intel's risk-reward depends heavily on whether its 18A process node succeeds and whether it can win external foundry customers.
NVDA holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. INTC has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+135.54% vs +17.02%), though NVDA has the better forward P/E setup (14.21x vs 43.86x for INTC). NVDA leads on both revenue growth (105.90%) and operating margin (66.24%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+48.66%) than for INTC (+28.40%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want to own the dominant AI training and inference chip platform
- Are comfortable paying a high multiple for compounding market leadership
- Believe the CUDA ecosystem creates a durable long-term software and hardware moat
- Want full-stack AI infrastructure exposure across chips, networking, and software
- See a deep-value turnaround opportunity in a historically important technology company
- Believe Intel's 18A process node and foundry strategy will succeed
- Want exposure to US domestic semiconductor manufacturing policy tailwinds
- Are patient with a multi-year recovery timeline and comfortable with ongoing execution risk
| Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 87.9 | 58.2 |
| AI ranki | #4 | #170 |
| Latest closei | $210.96 | $86.96 |
| 1M returni | -6.45% | -29.07% |
| 3M returni | +1.99% | -5.81% |
| 6M returni | +1.29% | +5.35% |
| 1Y returni | +17.02% | +135.54% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.58K (+15.8%) started 2025-10-23 | $22.79K (+127.9%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $91.4K (+814.0%) started 2021-10-25 | $20.82K (+108.2%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $1.23M (+12231.2%) started 2016-10-24 | $38.42K (+284.2%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $5.25T | $472.95B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 27.47 | 759.17 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.21 | 43.86 |
| Price/Salesi | 23.66 | 1.65 |
| EV/Revenuei | 17.23 | 8.55 |
| Analyst targeti | $323.42 | $114.88 |
| Target upsidei | +48.66% | +28.40% |
| Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 105.90% | 25.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 127.80% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +127.80% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +13.80% | +8.53% |
| Operating margini | 66.24% | 12.19% |
| Profit margini | 63.66% | -19.79% |
| ROIC proxyi | 117.21% | -10.71% |
| Return on equityi | 117.21% | -10.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.46% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 3.54% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 2.21 | 2.24 |
| Debt/equityi | 16.97 | 49.00 |
| Current ratioi | 4.59 | 1.60 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.92 | 1.16 |
Over the past year, NVDA and INTC have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.39), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +15.81% | +127.88% |
| CAGRi | +15.83% | +128.15% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.60% | 77.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 1.39 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.68 | 2.31 | |
| Max drawdowni | 20.22% | 41.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.82% | 38.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.21% | 15.38% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.31% | 18.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.20% | 17.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 10.72% | 21.05% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +812.35% | +91.08% |
| CAGRi | +55.68% | +13.84% | |
| Volatilityi | 51.94% | 55.43% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.03 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.59 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.34% | 65.04% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.82% | 38.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 16.76% | 34.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.20% | 38.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.97% | 26.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 22.20% | 37.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +12030.47% | +204.38% |
| CAGRi | +61.60% | +11.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.06% | 46.17% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.12 | 0.37 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.71 | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.34% | 70.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.82% | 38.30% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 15.52% | 27.30% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.78% | 34.49% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.76% | 26.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 28.36% | 37.83% |
| Category | NVDA | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | NVIDIA Corporation | Intel Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| Core business | Designer of GPUs and AI accelerators for data centers, gaming, and professional visualisation. The dominant supplier of AI training and inference chips with the CUDA software ecosystem. | Legacy CPU manufacturer pursuing a foundry services business (Intel Foundry) alongside PC and data center processor products. Undergoing a major restructuring and product roadmap rebuild. |
| Investor focus | Data center AI chip demand from hyperscalers and sovereign AI programs, Blackwell architecture ramp, software/networking revenue growth, and margin sustainability. | 18A process node success and external foundry customer wins, Panther Lake PC CPU launch, cost reduction and headcount restructuring, and cash management through the capex cycle. |
- Dominant market position in AI training chips with CUDA as an entrenched software ecosystem
- Blackwell architecture represents a generational leap in AI compute per dollar
- Expanding into networking (InfiniBand, Ethernet), software (NIM, NeMo), and full-stack AI infrastructure
- Substantial installed base in enterprise PC and server CPU markets provides revenue durability
- Intel Foundry Services targeting external customers could become a US domestic semiconductor supply alternative
- US CHIPS Act funding provides some capital support for domestic fab investments
- Extreme valuation pricing in multiple years of continued dominance
- AMD and custom silicon from hyperscalers as competitive threats over time
- Export restrictions to China limiting an important revenue market
- Continued market share losses in PC and server CPUs to AMD
- 18A process node execution risk — delays would be damaging to the foundry strategy
- Heavy capital expenditure requirements amid declining revenue and margins
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