QCOM vs NVDA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Qualcomm and Nvidia are both AI semiconductor companies, but in very different markets. Qualcomm dominates mobile AI — the on-device neural processing in smartphones and PCs. Nvidia dominates data center AI — the cloud-based GPU clusters training and running large language models. These are largely non-overlapping markets with little direct competition; Qualcomm's Snapdragon competes for mobile edge AI while Nvidia's H100/B200 wins data center AI training.
QCOM vs NVDA is mobile semiconductor leader with 5G patent royalties, Snapdragon AI SoCs, and emerging PC/automotive expansion (Qualcomm) versus the dominant AI training GPU platform with CUDA software lock-in and $40B+ quarterly data center revenue (Nvidia) — mobile edge AI vs cloud data center AI in largely separate markets.
NVDA holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NVDA leads on both 1-year return (+26.12%) and forward P/E quality (14.21x vs 16.09x for QCOM), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NVDA leads on both revenue growth (105.90%) and operating margin (66.24%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVDA (+48.66%) than for QCOM (+17.61%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the global mobile chip leader with 5G patent royalty income as a durable, competitively-protected revenue stream irrespective of chip market share battles
- value Snapdragon X Elite PC chip expansion as Qualcomm diversifies from smartphone dependency into the Windows on ARM PC market
- want automotive AI semiconductor exposure with Snapdragon Digital Chassis design wins representing a multi-year automotive revenue ramp
- are comfortable with Apple modem dependency reduction, MediaTek competition in premium Android, and limited exposure to the data center AI GPU boom
- prefer maximum concentration in the AI training GPU market with CUDA software ecosystem lock-in and 80%+ data center AI accelerator share
- value Nvidia's extraordinary revenue growth trajectory — data center GPU revenue growing 100%+ annually on a $160B+ annualized run rate
- want the highest-leverage pure-play AI infrastructure investment available in large-cap semiconductors
- are comfortable with extreme valuation, China export control headwinds, and hyperscaler custom chip competition gradually displacing Nvidia in some AI inference workloads
| Metric | QCOM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.6 | 87.4 |
| AI ranki | #447 | #3 |
| Latest closei | $177.72 | $222.27 |
| 1M returni | +9.76% | +2.16% |
| 6M returni | +35.37% | +24.48% |
| 1Y returni | +5.70% | +26.12% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | QCOM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.57K (+5.7%) started 2025-09-18 | $12.61K (+26.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $15.64K (+56.4%) started 2021-09-20 | $105.67K (+956.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $46.77K (+367.7%) started 2016-09-19 | $1.44M (+14328.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | QCOM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $175.36B | $5.25T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 18.76 | 27.47 |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.09 | 14.21 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.88 | 23.66 |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.07 | 17.23 |
| Analyst targeti | $193.10 | $323.42 |
| Target upsidei | +17.61% | +48.66% |
| Metric | QCOM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -4.00% | 105.90% |
| Earnings growthi | -23.00% | 127.80% |
| EPS growthi | -23.00% | +127.80% |
| FCF margini | +23.24% | +13.80% |
| Operating margini | 18.53% | 66.24% |
| Profit margini | 21.01% | 63.66% |
| ROIC proxyi | 33.75% | 117.21% |
| Return on equityi | 33.75% | 117.21% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.23% | 0.46% |
| Payout ratioi | 41.03% | 3.54% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.66 | 2.21 |
| Debt/equityi | 55.21 | 16.97 |
| Current ratioi | 2.02 | 4.59 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.14 | 2.92 |
Over the past year, QCOM and NVDA have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.19), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | QCOM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +5.70% | +26.12% |
| CAGRi | +5.71% | +26.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 53.05% | 37.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.28 | 0.68 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.43 | 1.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 41.20% | 20.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.20% | 5.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.32% | 9.00% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.85% | 10.19% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.46% | 6.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.52% | 10.72% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +44.50% | +954.74% |
| CAGRi | +7.65% | +60.26% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.37% | 52.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.28 | 1.08 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.40 | 1.67 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.50% | 66.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.20% | 5.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 25.45% | 16.75% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.01% | 24.20% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.46% | 16.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.52% | 22.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +258.56% | +14093.98% |
| CAGRi | +13.62% | +64.16% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.84% | 50.04% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.41 | 1.15 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.60 | 1.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 44.50% | 66.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 29.20% | 5.71% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 19.40% | 15.48% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.75% | 22.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.95% | 18.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 23.52% | 28.36% |
| Category | QCOM | NVDA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Qualcomm Incorporated | NVIDIA Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| Core business | Qualcomm is the world's leading mobile semiconductor company, designing Snapdragon processors used in Android smartphones (Samsung, Xiaomi, OnePlus, Google Pixel) and increasingly PCs (Snapdragon X Elite). Qualcomm also generates substantial licensing revenue from its foundational cellular technology patents — any company manufacturing 5G devices pays Qualcomm royalties. Qualcomm's Snapdragon AI features (NPU neural processing units) enable on-device AI inference in phones and PCs without cloud connectivity. | Nvidia designs the world's dominant AI accelerator GPU chips (H100, B200, B300) for data center AI training and inference. Nvidia's CUDA software platform with 4M+ developers creates software lock-in making Nvidia GPUs the default AI computing platform. Nvidia's data center GPU business generates $40B+ quarterly revenue growing rapidly. While Nvidia also has a mobile/edge AI presence (Jetson modules), its primary market is data center AI infrastructure. |
| Investor focus | Investors track handset chip revenue growth, Snapdragon X Elite PC chip adoption (diversifying from smartphones), automotive chip design wins (the next major growth market), and licensing revenue stability. | Investors track data center revenue, Blackwell GPU generation adoption, CUDA ecosystem developer count, and next-generation GPU (Rubin) timeline. |
- Cellular patent licensing creates $9B+ annual royalty income regardless of which chip company wins — every 5G device manufacturer pays Qualcomm, creating a toll-road royalty business distinct from chip competition
- Snapdragon X Elite PC chip competes with Apple M-series on performance per watt — Qualcomm's ARM-based PC CPU is driving Windows on ARM adoption
- Automotive semiconductor design wins (Snapdragon Digital Chassis) represent a multi-year revenue ramp as connected vehicle compute requirements increase
- 80%+ data center AI accelerator market share with CUDA software moat — Nvidia owns the market for AI training GPUs
- Blackwell B200/B300 GPU architecture delivers generational performance improvements enabling continued AI model scaling
- Full-stack AI infrastructure from GPU chips through networking (InfiniBand) and software (CUDA/TensorRT) creates a platform competitors cannot fully replicate
- Apple designs its own modems (reducing Qualcomm modem dependency) and Apple Silicon SoCs — the highest-value smartphone customer is gradually reducing Qualcomm revenue per device
- Nvidia's AI GPU data center dominance is a different market than Qualcomm's mobile focus — Qualcomm cannot compete in the $40B+ AI training GPU market
- Samsung and MediaTek develop competing smartphone SoCs — Qualcomm's premium Android market share faces ongoing competition
- Nvidia's mobile/edge AI chips are outcompeted by Qualcomm's Snapdragon in smartphones and ARM in power-efficient edge devices
- Custom hyperscaler chips (Google TPU, Amazon Trainium, Meta MTIA) may reduce Nvidia's data center TAM over time
- Export controls limit AI GPU sales to China
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