AMAT vs ASML Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Applied Materials and ASML are both essential semiconductor equipment companies but with very different competitive positions. ASML has a complete monopoly on EUV lithography — the single most critical step in advanced chip manufacturing. Applied Materials has the broadest equipment portfolio across all process steps except lithography. ASML's monopoly creates extraordinary pricing power and backlog visibility; AMAT's breadth provides diversification across all chip manufacturing technology transitions.
AMAT vs ASML is the broadest semiconductor equipment portfolio covering all process steps except lithography (Applied Materials) versus the absolute monopoly on EUV lithography — the single most critical enabling technology in advanced chip manufacturing (ASML) — ASML's monopoly moat is unmatched in the semiconductor equipment industry.
AMAT holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. AMAT leads on both 1-year return (+60.48%) and forward P/E quality (24.74x vs 28.30x for ASML), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, AMAT is growing revenue faster (24.80%), while ASML maintains the higher operating margin (37.06%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for AMAT (+40.39%) than for ASML (+26.93%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer broad semiconductor equipment exposure across deposition, etch, CMP, inspection, and advanced packaging without lithography concentration
- value Applied Materials' diverse customer base including TSMC, Samsung, Intel, Micron, and Chinese chipmakers across all process nodes
- want semiconductor equipment compounding from gate-all-around transistor and advanced packaging transitions that create AMAT-specific new tool demand
- are comfortable with China export control revenue headwinds, WFE spending cyclicality, and ASML lithography monopoly in the most critical process step
- prefer the only manufacturer of EUV lithography machines — the most strategically important single monopoly in the global semiconductor supply chain
- value ASML's 2+ year EUV backlog providing extraordinary revenue visibility rarely available in capital equipment businesses
- want the highest-moat semiconductor infrastructure position available — ASML's monopoly is more durable than any other equipment maker's competitive position
- are comfortable with EUV China export restrictions, quarterly revenue volatility from large machine deliveries, and very high valuation reflecting the monopoly quality
| Metric | AMAT | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 76.4 | 69.7 |
| AI ranki | #10 | #31 |
| Latest closei | $369.40 | $1,496.30 |
| 1M returni | -31.88% | -19.55% |
| 3M returni | -30.86% | -10.84% |
| 6M returni | -13.82% | -3.14% |
| 1Y returni | +60.48% | +45.25% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | AMAT | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.33K (+53.3%) started 2025-11-05 | $14.34K (+43.4%) started 2025-11-05 |
| 5Y ago | $25.66K (+156.6%) started 2021-11-08 | $17.67K (+76.7%) started 2021-11-05 |
| 10Y ago | $153.1K (+1431.0%) started 2016-11-07 | $142.84K (+1328.4%) started 2016-11-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | AMAT | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $362.27B | $652.32B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 39.39 | 57.47 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.74 | 28.30 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.76 | 9.64 |
| EV/Revenuei | 11.69 | 1025.67 |
| Analyst targeti | $640.89 | $2,155.62 |
| Target upsidei | +40.39% | +26.93% |
| Metric | AMAT | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 24.80% | 21.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 42.80% | 28.50% |
| EPS growthi | +42.80% | +28.50% |
| FCF margini | +9.97% | +23.88% |
| Operating margini | 33.74% | 37.06% |
| Profit margini | 30.05% | 30.11% |
| ROIC proxyi | 41.07% | 53.94% |
| Return on equityi | 41.07% | 53.94% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.46% | 0.53% |
| Payout ratioi | 16.48% | 22.26% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | N/A |
| Betai | 1.60 | 1.36 |
| Debt/equityi | 28.67 | 9.09 |
| Current ratioi | 2.42 | 1.33 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.63 | 0.72 |
Over the past year, AMAT and ASML have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.82), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | AMAT | ASML |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +53.35% | +43.36% |
| CAGRi | +53.45% | +43.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 61.98% | 48.00% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.94 | 0.91 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.39 | 1.34 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.91% | 24.79% | |
| Current drawdowni | 48.91% | 24.79% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.72% | 7.46% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.97% | 9.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.39% | 10.71% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.21% | 13.94% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +148.89% | +76.66% |
| CAGRi | +20.04% | +12.06% | |
| Volatilityi | 47.94% | 43.80% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.53 | 0.38 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.76 | 0.54 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.14% | 56.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 48.91% | 24.79% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.52% | 22.37% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.98% | 26.15% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.07% | 16.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 21.21% | 19.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1285.62% | +1328.45% |
| CAGRi | +30.09% | +30.49% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.04% | 39.60% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.71 | 0.76 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.03 | 1.10 | |
| Max drawdowni | 55.14% | 57.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 48.91% | 24.79% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.38% | 14.41% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 22.64% | 19.87% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.36% | 17.35% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.36% | 25.42% |
| Category | AMAT | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Applied Materials, Inc. | ASML Holding N.V. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials |
| Core business | Applied Materials is the world's largest semiconductor equipment company by revenue, providing a broad range of equipment used in chip manufacturing — CVD (chemical vapor deposition), PVD (physical vapor deposition), CMP (chemical mechanical planarization), etch, ion implant, and inspection systems. Applied serves chipmakers at all process nodes across logic, DRAM, NAND, and display manufacturing. Its Materials Engineering platform enables advanced chip packaging including gate-all-around transistors and 3D chip stacking. | ASML is the world's only manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines — the equipment that prints circuit patterns on chips at the most advanced nodes. Without ASML EUV machines, TSMC, Samsung, and Intel cannot manufacture chips at 5nm, 3nm, 2nm, or beyond. ASML's monopoly on EUV lithography makes it one of the most strategically important technology companies in the world. High-NA EUV (the next generation) enables 2nm and below. |
| Investor focus | Investors track wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) industry spending as the primary revenue driver, China equipment sales (large market subject to export controls), and AI-driven demand from advanced logic chip manufacturing at TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. | Investors track EUV system order backlog, High-NA EUV placement progress (initial systems placed at TSMC and Intel), and China DUV (immersion lithography) sales before export controls restrict additional sales. |
- Broadest semiconductor equipment portfolio covering more manufacturing process steps than any competitor — high equipment diversity reduces single-technology risk
- Gate-all-around (GAA) transistor transition and advanced packaging demand creates AMAT-specific growth beyond traditional deposition/etch tools
- Strong service and support revenue from installed equipment base provides recurring income throughout the semiconductor equipment market cycle
- Complete monopoly on EUV lithography — ASML is the only company in the world that can produce EUV machines; no competitor exists or is likely for decades
- EUV order backlog is 2+ years long — chipmakers must commit to ASML years in advance for EUV systems, providing extraordinary revenue visibility
- High-NA EUV for 2nm and below extends ASML's monopoly into the next generation — TSMC and Intel have placed initial High-NA orders
- US export controls on advanced semiconductor equipment to China significantly reduced a major revenue stream — China represented 30%+ of AMAT revenue before controls
- WFE spending is cyclical — semiconductor capex cycles create multi-year oscillations in equipment demand affecting AMAT revenue
- ASML's EUV dominance means the most critical manufacturing step (lithography) is controlled by a competitor — AMAT lacks lithography products
- Netherlands government has restricted exports of EUV lithography to China — ASML cannot sell its most advanced systems to Chinese chipmakers
- EUV machines cost $170M–$380M (High-NA) each — customer capex cycles create large quarterly revenue swings as machines ship
- ASML's sole supplier status makes it a geopolitical target — the Netherlands, US, Japan, and Netherlands export control coordination creates regulatory uncertainty around China sales
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