ASML vs LRCX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ASML and Lam Research are both critical semiconductor equipment companies, but ASML occupies an absolute monopoly position while Lam faces duopoly/oligopoly competition. Every advanced semiconductor chip requires ASML EUV machines — there is no alternative. Lam leads in etch and deposition but competes with Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron. ASML's monopoly creates pricing power and durability Lam cannot match, but Lam's broader node exposure creates more diversified revenue.
ASML vs LRCX is the absolute EUV lithography monopoly whose machines are required for every leading-edge AI chip without any competitive alternative (ASML) versus the etch and deposition equipment leader serving leading-edge logic and 3D NAND memory manufacturing with broader node exposure and competitive market dynamics (Lam Research) — unrivaled equipment monopoly vs competitive equipment market leader.
LRCX holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LRCX leads on both 1-year return (+120.93%) and forward P/E quality (26.12x vs 28.30x for ASML), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. LRCX leads on both revenue growth (30.00%) and operating margin (37.39%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ASML (+26.93%) than for LRCX (+22.95%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the absolute monopoly semiconductor equipment business — ASML has no competitors for EUV, making it uniquely durable among all technology companies
- value ASML's position as the ultimate gating resource for AI chip manufacturing — every Nvidia, AMD, and Apple chip requires ASML EUV machines
- want the most strategically important technology company in the world as measured by irreplaceability — no other company has ASML's essential-and-exclusive position in the global supply chain
- are comfortable with China export restriction revenue headwinds, EUV production capacity limiting short-term revenue, and European semiconductor fab capex cycle sensitivity
- prefer the etch and deposition equipment leader with broad exposure across 3D NAND memory, DRAM, and leading-edge logic serving the full semiconductor manufacturing spectrum
- value Lam's 3D NAND memory cycle recovery exposure as AI data center SSD demand drives new NAND memory capital investment
- want semiconductor equipment exposure with more valuation accessibility than ASML's monopoly-premium — Lam trades at more moderate multiples given competitive equipment market dynamics
- are comfortable with memory semiconductor capex cyclicality, China export control headwinds, and Applied Materials and TEL competition in Lam's equipment categories
| Metric | ASML | LRCX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 73.4 | 81.8 |
| AI ranki | #30 | #10 |
| Latest closei | $1,629.67 | $269.31 |
| 1M returni | -9.61% | -17.87% |
| 6M returni | +19.27% | +15.09% |
| 1Y returni | +86.83% | +120.93% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ASML | LRCX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $17.56K (+75.6%) started 2025-09-18 | $21.32K (+113.2%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $19.38K (+93.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $46.63K (+366.3%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $157.7K (+1477.0%) started 2016-09-19 | $325.47K (+3154.7%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ASML | LRCX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $652.32B | $377.77B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 57.47 | 52.32 |
| Forward P/Ei | 28.30 | 26.12 |
| Price/Salesi | 9.64 | 6.45 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1025.67 | 16.20 |
| Analyst targeti | $2,155.62 | $371.19 |
| Target upsidei | +26.93% | +22.95% |
| Metric | ASML | LRCX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 21.30% | 30.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 28.50% | 34.80% |
| EPS growthi | +28.50% | +34.80% |
| FCF margini | +23.88% | +13.30% |
| Operating margini | 37.06% | 37.39% |
| Profit margini | 30.11% | 31.27% |
| ROIC proxyi | 53.94% | 65.07% |
| Return on equityi | 53.94% | 65.07% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.53% | 0.44% |
| Payout ratioi | 29.72% | 18.06% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.36 | 1.86 |
| Debt/equityi | 9.09 | 33.05 |
| Current ratioi | 1.33 | 2.63 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.72 | 1.84 |
Over the past year, ASML and LRCX have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.86), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ASML | LRCX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +75.65% | +113.20% |
| CAGRi | +75.75% | +113.36% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.27% | 64.41% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.36 | 1.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.07 | 2.20 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.05% | 41.76% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.08% | 37.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.13% | 9.77% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.22% | 14.68% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.82% | 10.19% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.94% | 23.12% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +93.84% | +361.42% |
| CAGRi | +14.17% | +35.82% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.56% | 49.53% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.78 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.61 | 1.15 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.91% | 56.85% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.08% | 37.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.28% | 19.21% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.10% | 24.08% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.26% | 11.60% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.20% | 23.12% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1477.00% | +2983.10% |
| CAGRi | +31.78% | +40.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.30% | 46.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.79 | 0.88 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.14 | 1.30 | |
| Max drawdowni | 57.37% | 56.85% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.08% | 37.85% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.31% | 15.23% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.80% | 20.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.35% | 18.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.42% | 29.82% |
| Category | ASML | LRCX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | ASML Holding N.V. | Lam Research Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials |
| Core business | ASML is the Netherlands-based monopoly manufacturer of EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography machines — the $150–400M+ equipment systems that pattern semiconductor chips at the most advanced nodes (3nm, 2nm, 1.6nm). Only ASML makes EUV machines; there is no alternative supplier for any chipmaker at leading-edge nodes. TSMC, Samsung, and Intel all depend entirely on ASML's EUV machines for leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing. ASML also produces DUV (Deep UV) systems used at less advanced nodes. ASML's installed base includes High-NA EUV — the next-generation system for 2nm and beyond. | Lam Research is a leader in etch and deposition semiconductor equipment — the manufacturing processes that remove and add material layers to semiconductor wafers. Lam's systems include plasma etch (critical for 3D NAND memory layers and logic chip patterning), chemical vapor deposition (CVD), and atomic layer deposition (ALD). Lam's equipment is used at every semiconductor node from mature to leading edge — making it broadly essential across NAND memory, DRAM, and logic chip manufacturing. 3D NAND memory (used in AI data center SSDs) requires 200+ etch steps, where Lam's equipment excels. |
| Investor focus | Investors track EUV system shipments per year, High-NA EUV order intake, TSMC/Samsung/Intel capex for leading-edge capacity, and China DUV export restrictions. | Investors track etch and deposition equipment market share, NAND and DRAM memory capex recovery, and leading-edge logic investment at TSMC/Intel/Samsung. |
- EUV monopoly is absolute: no company in history has successfully challenged ASML's EUV position — 30+ years of R&D and an irreplaceable supply chain of 5,000+ suppliers make ASML impossible to replicate
- Every leading-edge AI chip requires ASML EUV: Nvidia H100/B100/B200, AMD MI300, and Apple silicon all use TSMC fabs that depend on ASML EUV — AI chip demand is direct ASML demand
- High-NA EUV positions ASML for the next decade: High-NA EUV systems at $350M+ each are even more advanced than current EUV, extending ASML's technological leadership into 2030+
- 3D NAND etch leadership: Lam's etch equipment is critical for 3D NAND memory manufacturing — with 100s of etch steps required per wafer, Lam's equipment is among the most frequently used in memory fabs
- Broad equipment portfolio across etch, deposition, and clean: Lam's multi-product portfolio creates cross-sell across fab customer manufacturing processes
- Memory cycle recovery exposure: Lam benefits from NAND and DRAM capex recovery as memory makers invest in new capacity after the 2022-2023 downturn
- China export restrictions: Dutch government's ASML export license restrictions for China DUV shipments remove a significant revenue opportunity — China was ASML's largest single-country revenue
- EUV shipment capacity limits near-term revenue growth — ASML can only build so many EUV machines per year; production capacity constrains revenue more than demand
- Semiconductor fab capex cycle: when TSMC, Samsung, or Intel cut capital spending, ASML's order book shrinks — advanced node capex cycles create ASML revenue cyclicality
- China export controls affect Lam's business: export restrictions on advanced semiconductor equipment reduce Lam's China sales opportunity
- Memory semiconductor cycles are severe — Lam's revenue concentration in memory capex creates significant cyclicality during NAND and DRAM down-cycles
- Competition from Applied Materials and Tokyo Electron in etch and deposition — while Lam leads in specific segments, competition is more intense than ASML's monopoly
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