Data as of:
LIVE
ASML
ASML Holding N.V. · Technology - Semiconductor Lithography Equipment
$1,629.67
-9.61% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
TEL
Tokyo Electron Limited · Technology - Semiconductor Equipment (Japan)
$206.60
+0.80% this month
Comparison scoreboard
ASML LEADS 4/5AI Scorei
ASML ✓73.4
TEL 52.5
1Y Returni
ASML ✓+86.83%
TEL -3.38%
Fwd P/Ei
ASML 28.30
TEL ✓15.70
Target Up.i
ASML ✓+26.93%
TEL +21.78%
Op. Margini
ASML ✓37.06%
TEL 20.77%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/18/2026
Quick take
ASML vs TEL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ASML (Dutch) and Tokyo Electron (Japanese) are two of the world's largest non-U.S. semiconductor equipment companies — ASML holds an extraordinary monopoly in EUV lithography essential for the world's most advanced chips, while Tokyo Electron leads in coater/developers for photolithography and competes in etch and deposition. ASML's monopoly creates unparalleled pricing power; TEL benefits from Japan's semiconductor manufacturing revival.
ASML vs TEL is technology monopoly (ASML's EUV lithography that no chipmaker can go without, with decades of R&D creating impenetrable competitive barriers) versus Japan semiconductor equipment leadership (Tokyo Electron's complementary role to ASML's EUV tools plus Japanese domestic semiconductor investment tailwind) — extraordinary competitive moat versus cyclical market positioning.
Live analysis · updated 9/18/2026
ASML holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ASML has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+86.83% vs -3.38%), though TEL has the better forward P/E setup (15.70x vs 28.30x for ASML). ASML leads on both revenue growth (21.30%) and operating margin (37.06%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ASML (+26.93%) than for TEL (+21.78%).
Want a full valuation workup? 46-section report — AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, bull/bear case, DCF, and more.
Normalized 1Y performance
ASML
TEL
Recent returns
ASML
TEL
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
ASML · 12 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
38 Buy / 3 Hold / 1 Sell
Price target range
analyst low$715.03
analyst mean$2,155.62
current price$1,629.67
+26.9% upside to analyst mean
TEL · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.0/5.0)
12 Buy / 6 Hold / 0 Sell
Price target range
analyst low$140.00
analyst mean$246.79
current price$206.60
+21.8% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
ASML may suit investors who:
- Want the world's most competitively impregnable semiconductor equipment company — ASML's EUV monopoly means the world's most advanced chips literally cannot be made without ASML machines, creating unique pricing power and demand visibility
- Value ASML's multi-year backlog as exceptional revenue predictability in an otherwise cyclical capital equipment sector
- Accept the export restriction overhang on China sales and the concentration risk of a monopoly dependent on a single technology platform (EUV) that may eventually be superseded by successor technologies
TEL may suit investors who:
- Want exposure to Japan's semiconductor manufacturing renaissance through the largest Japanese equipment company benefiting from Rapidus, TSMC Japan fab, and government-supported domestic chip production
- Value Tokyo Electron's coater/developer market leadership as the natural complement to ASML's EUV tools — wherever ASML installs EUV systems, TEL coater/developers are typically part of the same lithography cluster
- Prefer geographic diversification in semiconductor equipment holdings with a Japan-listed company (or ADR) versus exclusively U.S.-listed equipment companies
Performance & AI score
| Metric | ASML | TEL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 73.4 | 52.5 |
| AI ranki | #30 | #388 |
| Latest closei | $1,629.67 | $206.60 |
| 1M returni | -9.61% | +0.80% |
| 6M returni | +19.27% | +4.14% |
| 1Y returni | +86.83% | -3.38% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ASML | TEL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $17.56K (+75.6%) started 2025-09-18 | $9.51K (-4.9%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $19.38K (+93.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $16.68K (+66.8%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $157.7K (+1477.0%) started 2016-09-19 | $45.81K (+358.1%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | ASML | TEL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $652.32B | $58.67B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 57.47 | 19.85 |
| Forward P/Ei | 28.30 | 15.70 |
| Price/Salesi | 9.64 | 3.05 |
| EV/Revenuei | 1025.67 | 3.28 |
| Analyst targeti | $2,155.62 | $246.79 |
| Target upsidei | +26.93% | +21.78% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | ASML | TEL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 21.30% | 13.80% |
| Earnings growthi | 28.50% | 19.20% |
| EPS growthi | +28.50% | +19.20% |
| FCF margini | +23.88% | +12.09% |
| Operating margini | 37.06% | 20.77% |
| Profit margini | 30.11% | 15.61% |
| ROIC proxyi | 53.94% | 23.29% |
| Return on equityi | 53.94% | 23.29% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.53% | 1.54% |
| Payout ratioi | 29.72% | 28.50% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.36 | 1.16 |
| Debt/equityi | 9.09 | 43.44 |
| Current ratioi | 1.33 | 1.88 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.72 | 1.07 |
Correlation
Over the past year, ASML and TEL have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.49), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.49
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.60
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.60
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
ASML max drawdowni22.05%
TEL max drawdowni21.35%
ASML max wkly dropi13.94%
TEL max wkly dropi15.99%
5Y risk snapshot
ASML max drawdowni56.91%
TEL max drawdowni34.26%
ASML max wkly dropi19.20%
TEL max wkly dropi15.99%
10Y risk snapshot
ASML max drawdowni57.37%
TEL max drawdowni47.71%
ASML max wkly dropi25.42%
TEL max wkly dropi27.28%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | ASML | TEL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +75.65% | -4.93% |
| CAGRi | +75.74% | -4.93% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.27% | 35.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.36 | -0.10 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.07 | -0.13 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.05% | 21.35% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.08% | 17.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.13% | 11.25% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.22% | 13.13% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.82% | 9.10% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.94% | 15.99% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +93.84% | +57.04% |
| CAGRi | +14.17% | +9.46% | |
| Volatilityi | 43.56% | 28.73% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.61 | 0.43 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.91% | 34.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.08% | 17.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.28% | 13.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.10% | 15.89% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.26% | 9.10% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.20% | 15.99% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1477.00% | +287.38% |
| CAGRi | +31.78% | +14.51% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.30% | 28.54% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.79 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.14 | 0.65 | |
| Max drawdowni | 57.37% | 47.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.08% | 17.03% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.31% | 10.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 19.80% | 14.38% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.35% | 15.83% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.42% | 27.28% |
Business comparison
| Category | ASML | TEL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | ASML Holding N.V. | Tokyo Electron Limited |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials | Electronic Components |
| Core business | ASML is a Dutch semiconductor equipment company with a complete global monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines — the equipment used to print circuit patterns on chips at the most advanced technology nodes (7nm, 5nm, 3nm, and below). EUV machines cost $150-350+ million each and took decades of development. ASML also produces DUV (deep ultraviolet) lithography for mature nodes. | Tokyo Electron (TEL) is Japan's largest and Asia's second-largest semiconductor equipment company — providing etch systems, thermal CVD and ALD deposition systems, coater/developer systems for photolithography, and cleaning equipment. TEL has strong relationships with Japanese chipmakers (Kioxia, Renesas) and major Asian foundries and memory manufacturers. |
| Investor focus | Investors track ASML's EUV machine shipments per year, High-NA EUV order intake (the next generation enabling sub-2nm features), backlog (often exceeding two years of revenue), average selling price per EUV machine, and the geopolitical risks around EUV export restrictions to China (Netherlands government restricts EUV machine exports). | Investors evaluate TEL on its etch and deposition market share versus Applied Materials and Lam Research, coater/developer leadership in photoresist application for EUV lithography, Japan domestic semiconductor revival investment, and export restriction impacts on China revenue. |
ASML strengths
- Absolute EUV monopoly — ASML is literally the only company in the world that makes EUV machines. Intel, TSMC, and Samsung have no alternative supplier. This unprecedented monopoly in a critical technology creates extraordinary pricing power and predictable demand
- Irreplaceable technology — EUV machines contain 100,000+ components from 5,000+ suppliers across dozens of countries; the system took 30+ years and billions in R&D to develop, creating a barrier to competition that is effectively permanent for the foreseeable future
- Backlog-driven revenue visibility — ASML typically has a 2-3 year revenue backlog, providing exceptional revenue predictability rare in capital equipment markets
TEL strengths
- Coater/developer market leadership — TEL dominates the equipment that applies and develops photoresist for lithography, a critical process step adjacent to ASML's exposure tools that require very high precision uniformity
- Japanese semiconductor revival tailwind — Japan is investing heavily in advanced semiconductor manufacturing through Rapidus (2nm chips), TSMC Japan fab (熊本), and government support for domestic chip production — directly benefiting TEL as the primary Japanese equipment supplier
- Broad portfolio complementary to ASML — TEL's coater/developer systems are the direct complement to ASML lithography tools; wherever EUV tools are installed, TEL coater/developers are typically needed
Risks to watch — ASML
- Export restriction risk — the Netherlands government (under U.S. pressure) restricts ASML from shipping EUV machines to China; additional restrictions on DUV machines are also in place, removing China as a customer for the most advanced systems
- EUV adoption is lumpy — EUV machine purchases are large individual transactions; delays in TSMC, Samsung, or Intel fab plans can shift quarterly shipment timelines significantly
- High-NA EUV transition risk — the next-generation High-NA EUV (enabling <2nm nodes) requires new machines costing $380M+ each; chipmaker adoption timing creates revenue transition uncertainty
Risks to watch — TEL
- China export restrictions affect TEL — Japan has implemented export restrictions aligned with U.S. policy, reducing TEL's access to Chinese customers for advanced equipment
- Competition from Applied Materials and Lam Research in etch and CVD/ALD — TEL competes directly against the larger U.S. equipment companies in categories where market share is more contested
- Currency exposure — TEL reports in Japanese yen; JPY/USD fluctuations affect reported results and comparisons for international investors
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