TSM vs INTC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
TSMC and Intel are both at the center of the semiconductor manufacturing supply chain but in very different competitive positions. TSMC is the world's undisputed leading semiconductor foundry — making chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and essentially everyone at the most advanced nodes. Intel is attempting to rebuild its manufacturing capabilities after falling behind TSMC, while simultaneously defending its CPU franchise against AMD. TSMC is winning; Intel is in recovery mode.
TSM vs INTC is the world's most advanced and irreplaceable semiconductor foundry manufacturing every critical AI chip at leading-edge nodes (TSMC) versus the integrated US chip maker in manufacturing recovery attempting to rebuild foundry capability while defending CPU market share against AMD (Intel) — manufacturing excellence vs manufacturing recovery bet.
TSM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. INTC has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+255.25% vs +63.52%), though TSM has the better forward P/E setup (19.83x vs 43.86x for INTC). TSM leads on both revenue growth (36.00%) and operating margin (60.34%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +27.05% for TSM and +28.40% for INTC.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the world's indispensable semiconductor foundry — TSMC manufactures every critical AI chip (Nvidia, Apple, AMD) at the most advanced processes that no competitor can match
- value TSMC's irreplaceability as an investment moat — customers cannot switch foundries because no alternative offers equivalent process technology at equivalent scale
- want AI semiconductor infrastructure exposure as every AI GPU generation requires more TSMC leading-edge manufacturing and CoWoS advanced packaging capacity
- are comfortable with Taiwan geopolitical risk, international fab cost dilution, and Apple/Nvidia customer concentration
- prefer a semiconductor manufacturing recovery bet — if Intel 18A achieves process leadership, Intel could return to manufacturing competitive parity with TSMC
- value Intel Foundry Services as a potential US domestic alternative to TSMC for chips that policymakers want produced in America
- want distressed large-cap technology recovery exposure if Intel's foundry strategy and management execution succeed in 2025–2026
- are comfortable with significant execution risk, AMD market share pressure on Xeon, and Intel Foundry Services requiring substantial time and capital before customer wins translate to significant revenue
| Metric | TSM | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 78.6 | 58.8 |
| AI ranki | #17 | #198 |
| Latest closei | $434.67 | $108.60 |
| 1M returni | +5.76% | +17.03% |
| 6M returni | +32.69% | +135.17% |
| 1Y returni | +63.52% | +255.25% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TSM | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $16.52K (+65.2%) started 2025-09-18 | $35.53K (+255.3%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $44.61K (+346.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $24.25K (+142.5%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $237.01K (+2270.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $45.53K (+355.3%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TSM | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.25T | $472.95B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 32.46 | 759.17 |
| Forward P/Ei | 19.83 | 43.86 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.51 | 1.65 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.52 | 8.55 |
| Analyst targeti | $552.26 | $114.88 |
| Target upsidei | +27.05% | +28.40% |
| Metric | TSM | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 36.00% | 25.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 77.40% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +77.40% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +16.46% | +8.53% |
| Operating margini | 60.34% | 12.19% |
| Profit margini | 49.92% | -19.79% |
| ROIC proxyi | 39.97% | -10.71% |
| Return on equityi | 39.97% | -10.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.94% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 25.74% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 2 yrs | No increase yet |
| Betai | 1.25 | 2.24 |
| Debt/equityi | 16.50 | 49.00 |
| Current ratioi | 2.46 | 1.60 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.13 | 1.16 |
Over the past year, TSM and INTC have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.50), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TSM | INTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +63.52% | +255.25% |
| CAGRi | +63.57% | +255.56% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.42% | 76.87% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.31 | 1.98 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.01 | 3.38 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.55% | 41.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.74% | 22.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.88% | 13.24% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.69% | 17.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.98% | 17.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.05% | 21.05% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +310.53% | +122.55% |
| CAGRi | +32.68% | +17.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.39% | 54.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.81 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.24 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.47% | 65.04% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.74% | 22.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.66% | 33.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.30% | 38.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.33% | 26.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.17% | 37.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1731.63% | +260.69% |
| CAGRi | +33.76% | +13.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.80% | 45.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.88 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.33 | 0.61 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.47% | 70.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 8.74% | 22.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.88% | 27.19% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.07% | 34.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.03% | 26.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.17% | 37.83% |
| Category | TSM | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | Intel Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| Core business | TSMC is the world's largest and most advanced semiconductor contract foundry, manufacturing chips for Nvidia, Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, and virtually all leading fabless chip designers. TSMC does not design chips — it manufactures them at the leading edge (3nm, 2nm processes) that Intel cannot currently match. TSMC's manufacturing process technology leadership has been maintained for over a decade against Intel and Samsung's foundry attempts. Every Nvidia AI GPU, Apple M-series chip, and AMD EPYC server CPU is made at TSMC. | Intel is an integrated device manufacturer (IDM) — designing and manufacturing its own x86 CPUs plus operating Intel Foundry Services (IFS) as a contract manufacturer for external customers. Intel's manufacturing has faced multi-year delays and yield issues, falling behind TSMC at leading-edge nodes. Intel's Intel 18A process is its attempt to reclaim manufacturing leadership by 2025–2026. Intel Foundry is pursuing a separate business to manufacture chips for Microsoft, Amazon, and other hyperscalers. |
| Investor focus | Investors track leading-edge process node capacity (3nm and 2nm % of revenue), CoWoS advanced packaging capacity for AI GPU chip stacking, and customer concentration risk from Apple and Nvidia representing the majority of leading-edge revenue. | Investors track Intel 18A process yield milestones, Intel Foundry Services customer wins, data center CPU market share vs AMD, and the cost and timeline of Intel's foundry manufacturing recovery. |
- World's only manufacturer of 3nm and 2nm chips with proven yield and manufacturing scale — Intel and Samsung cannot match TSMC's leading-edge process technology
- CoWoS advanced packaging is required for Nvidia AI GPUs — TSMC's packaging capacity is a scarce resource for AI chip production
- Customer irreplaceability: Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Qualcomm all depend on TSMC and have no near-term alternative foundry at equivalent process nodes
- CHIPS Act beneficiary — Intel is the primary US domestic semiconductor manufacturing recipient of government subsidies as the only large-scale US IDM
- x86 server CPU installed base: global data centers run Intel Xeon processors — upgrade cycles from existing Intel customers provide recurring revenue
- Intel Foundry Services if successful provides a US-based TSMC alternative — a strategic value beyond Intel's own chip business
- Taiwan geopolitical risk — TSMC's manufacturing concentration in Taiwan represents existential operational risk if China-Taiwan tensions escalate
- US, Japan, Germany fab expansion costs are higher than TSMC's Taiwan operations — international fab diversification dilutes margin
- Customer concentration: Apple and Nvidia represent a majority of leading-edge revenue — customer spending cycles directly impact TSMC
- Intel's manufacturing catch-up is not guaranteed — Intel 18A timeline has slipped before and achieving leading-edge process parity with TSMC requires execution Intel hasn't demonstrated recently
- AMD is gaining data center server CPU market share at Intel's expense — the Xeon franchise is eroding
- Intel Foundry Services must win paying external customers at adequate pricing — announced partnerships don't guarantee revenue
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