TSM vs ASML Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
TSMC and ASML occupy two uniquely powerful positions in the global semiconductor supply chain: TSMC is the world's premier chip manufacturer and ASML is the sole supplier of the machines TSMC needs to make leading-edge chips. Together they are the two most irreplaceable nodes in the AI chip production ecosystem. Both are exposed to AI capex cycles but in complementary ways.
TSM is the manufacturing capacity play directly leveraged to AI chip demand volume; ASML is the equipment monopoly play whose machines are essential for any manufacturer making advanced chips — investors must decide which chokepoint they prefer.
TSM holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ASML has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+86.83% vs +62.54%), though TSM has the better forward P/E setup (19.71x vs 28.30x for ASML). TSM leads on both revenue growth (36.00%) and operating margin (60.34%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +27.82% for TSM and +26.93% for ASML.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want direct exposure to AI chip manufacturing demand from NVIDIA, Apple, and custom ASIC designers
- value TSMC's manufacturing leadership at leading-edge nodes as a durable competitive moat
- believe CoWoS advanced packaging is a near-term earnings catalyst for AI chip production
- are willing to accept Taiwan geopolitical risk for exposure to the most critical chip manufacturer
- prefer the equipment monopoly to the manufacturer — ASML's EUV tools are needed regardless of who wins the foundry wars
- value the High-NA EUV transition as a multi-year ASP expansion catalyst
- want European semiconductor exposure without the concentrated Taiwan geopolitical risk
- are comfortable with China export restriction headwinds in exchange for ASML's monopoly positioning
| Metric | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 78.6 | 73.4 |
| AI ranki | #17 | #30 |
| Latest closei | $432.07 | $1,629.67 |
| 1M returni | +5.13% | -9.61% |
| 6M returni | +31.89% | +19.27% |
| 1Y returni | +62.54% | +86.83% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $16.42K (+64.2%) started 2025-09-18 | $18.68K (+86.8%) started 2025-09-17 |
| 5Y ago | $44.35K (+343.5%) started 2021-09-20 | $18.95K (+89.5%) started 2021-09-17 |
| 10Y ago | $235.59K (+2255.9%) started 2016-09-19 | $157.7K (+1477.0%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $2.24T | $652.32B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 32.20 | 57.47 |
| Forward P/Ei | 19.71 | 28.30 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.50 | 9.64 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.48 | 1025.67 |
| Analyst targeti | $552.26 | $2,155.62 |
| Target upsidei | +27.82% | +26.93% |
| Metric | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 36.00% | 21.30% |
| Earnings growthi | 77.40% | 28.50% |
| EPS growthi | +77.40% | +28.50% |
| FCF margini | +16.46% | +23.88% |
| Operating margini | 60.34% | 37.06% |
| Profit margini | 49.92% | 30.11% |
| ROIC proxyi | 39.97% | 53.94% |
| Return on equityi | 39.97% | 53.94% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.95% | 0.53% |
| Payout ratioi | 25.74% | 29.72% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 2 yrs | N/A |
| Betai | 1.25 | 1.36 |
| Debt/equityi | 16.50 | 9.09 |
| Current ratioi | 2.46 | 1.33 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.13 | 0.72 |
Over the past year, TSM and ASML have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.73), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +62.54% | +86.83% |
| CAGRi | +62.59% | +86.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.41% | 46.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.30 | 1.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.99 | 2.28 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.55% | 22.05% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.28% | 18.08% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.89% | 6.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.69% | 8.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 6.98% | 7.82% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.05% | 13.94% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +308.07% | +89.53% |
| CAGRi | +32.53% | +13.64% | |
| Volatilityi | 38.39% | 43.57% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.81 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.23 | 0.59 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.47% | 56.91% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.28% | 18.08% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.66% | 22.27% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 23.30% | 26.10% | |
| Max daily dropi | 13.33% | 16.26% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.17% | 19.20% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1720.67% | +1477.00% |
| CAGRi | +33.68% | +31.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.80% | 39.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.88 | 0.79 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.33 | 1.14 | |
| Max drawdowni | 56.47% | 57.37% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.28% | 18.08% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.88% | 14.31% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.07% | 19.80% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.03% | 17.35% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 16.17% | 25.42% |
| Category | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | ASML Holding N.V. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials |
| Core business | TSMC is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, manufacturing chips for Apple (A-series, M-series), NVIDIA (AI GPUs), AMD, Qualcomm, and virtually every major fabless chip designer. Its leadership in advanced logic nodes (3nm, 2nm) is a structural competitive advantage — it is the only company capable of manufacturing the most advanced AI chips in high volume. TSMC does not design chips; its customers bring designs, and TSMC produces them. | ASML is the world's sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are essential for producing advanced semiconductors at nodes below 7nm. Without ASML's EUV machines, TSMC, Samsung, and Intel could not manufacture leading-edge chips. Its monopoly on EUV — protected by decades of physics, engineering, and supply chain development — makes ASML the most mission-critical supplier in the global semiconductor supply chain. Each EUV machine costs approximately €200M. |
| Investor focus | Investors track leading-edge capacity utilization (CoWoS advanced packaging for AI), N3/N2 process revenue ramp, AI-driven demand from NVIDIA and custom ASIC designers, geographic diversification (Arizona, Japan, Germany fabs), and NT$/USD exchange rate impact on reported earnings. | Investors track High-NA EUV machine orders and deliveries (the next-generation tool enabling sub-2nm chips), system backlog size, deferred revenue from installed base upgrades, and China sales exposure — which is being restricted by Dutch export controls. |
- Only company capable of mass-producing the world's most advanced logic chips at scale
- AI chip demand (NVIDIA H100/B200, Apple silicon, custom ASICs) is driving unprecedented capex investment
- CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is a bottleneck for AI chip production creating pricing power
- Absolute monopoly on EUV lithography — no alternative exists and cannot be replicated in short timeframes
- High-NA EUV tools for sub-2nm chips are the next step-function growth driver
- Installed base of 200+ EUV systems generates high-margin recurring service and upgrade revenue
- Taiwan geopolitical risk — TSMC's concentration in Taiwan is the single largest investment risk
- US-China export restrictions limiting customers who can use TSMC's leading-edge nodes
- Capital intensity of staying at the leading edge requires $30-40B in annual capex
- China export restrictions are removing a significant and growing market
- Leading-edge chip demand is highly cyclical — any slowdown in AI capex reduces ASML order intake
- Long lead times for EUV machine deliveries mean backlog visibility is strong but execution is complex
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