LIVE
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited · Technology
$462.12
+17.98% this month
VERSUS
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COMPARE
ASML
ASML Holding N.V. · Technology
$1,929.68
+32.22% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
TSM
3
ASML
1
Comparison scoreboard
TSM LEADS 3/5AI Score
TSM ✓78.3
ASML 65.7
1Y Return
TSM +118.84%
ASML ✓+153.36%
Fwd P/E
TSM ✓23.51
ASML 38.83
Target Up.
TSM ✓+2.44%
ASML -8.44%
Op. Margin
TSM N/A
ASML 36.02%
Metrics last refreshed: 6/20/2026
Quick take
TSM vs ASML Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
TSMC and ASML occupy two uniquely powerful positions in the global semiconductor supply chain: TSMC is the world's premier chip manufacturer and ASML is the sole supplier of the machines TSMC needs to make leading-edge chips. Together they are the two most irreplaceable nodes in the AI chip production ecosystem. Both are exposed to AI capex cycles but in complementary ways.
TSM is the manufacturing capacity play directly leveraged to AI chip demand volume; ASML is the equipment monopoly play whose machines are essential for any manufacturer making advanced chips — investors must decide which chokepoint they prefer.
Live analysis · updated 6/20/2026
TSM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ASML has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+153.36% vs +118.84%), though TSM trades at the lower forward P/E (23.51x vs 38.83x). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for TSM (+2.44%) than for ASML (-8.44%).
Normalized 1Y performance
TSM
ASML
Recent returns
TSM
ASML
Analyst price targets & sentiment
TSM · 18 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Strong Buy (1.5/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$354.00
analyst high$700.00
analyst mean$473.40
current price$462.12
+2.4% upside to analyst mean
ASML · 12 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$715.03
analyst mean$1,706.26
current price$1,929.68
-8.4% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
TSM may suit investors who:
- →want direct exposure to AI chip manufacturing demand from NVIDIA, Apple, and custom ASIC designers
- →value TSMC's manufacturing leadership at leading-edge nodes as a durable competitive moat
- →believe CoWoS advanced packaging is a near-term earnings catalyst for AI chip production
- →are willing to accept Taiwan geopolitical risk for exposure to the most critical chip manufacturer
ASML may suit investors who:
- →prefer the equipment monopoly to the manufacturer — ASML's EUV tools are needed regardless of who wins the foundry wars
- →value the High-NA EUV transition as a multi-year ASP expansion catalyst
- →want European semiconductor exposure without the concentrated Taiwan geopolitical risk
- →are comfortable with China export restriction headwinds in exchange for ASML's monopoly positioning
Performance & AI score
| Metric | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 78.3 | 65.7 |
| AI rank | #12 | #60 |
| Latest close | $462.12 | $1,929.68 |
| 1M return | +17.98% | +32.22% |
| 6M return | +67.72% | +90.04% |
| 1Y return | +118.84% | +153.36% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $22.13K (+121.3%) started 2025-06-18 | $25.34K (+153.4%) started 2025-06-18 |
| 5Y ago | $47.13K (+371.3%) started 2021-06-18 | $28.76K (+187.6%) started 2021-06-18 |
| 10Y ago | $308.79K (+2987.9%) started 2016-06-20 | $199.24K (+1892.4%) started 2016-06-20 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $2.4T | $718.25B |
| Trailing P/E | 39.74 | 62.49 |
| Forward P/E | 23.51 | 38.83 |
| Price/Sales | 0.58 | 9.64 |
| EV/Revenue | 3.76 | 1184.09 |
| Analyst target | $473.40 | $1,706.26 |
| Target upside | +2.44% | -8.44% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 35.10% | 13.20% |
| Earnings growth | 58.40% | 19.20% |
| EPS growth | +58.40% | +19.20% |
| FCF margin | +17.52% | +24.47% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 36.02% |
| Profit margin | 46.51% | 29.71% |
| ROIC proxy | 36.21% | 52.24% |
| Return on equity | 36.21% | 52.24% |
| Dividend yield | 5.55% | 0.47% |
| Beta | 1.25 | 1.40 |
| Debt/equity | 18.45 | 12.99 |
| Current ratio | 2.49 | 1.36 |
| Quick ratio | 2.19 | 0.69 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
TSM max drawdown18.14%
ASML max drawdown17.85%
TSM max wkly drop10.46%
ASML max wkly drop14.28%
5Y risk snapshot
TSM max drawdown56.47%
ASML max drawdown57.37%
TSM max wkly drop16.17%
ASML max wkly drop19.20%
10Y risk snapshot
TSM max drawdown56.47%
ASML max drawdown57.37%
TSM max wkly drop16.17%
ASML max wkly drop25.42%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +118.84% | +153.36% |
| CAGR | +118.96% | +153.52% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 2.16 | 2.28 | |
| Max drawdown | 18.14% | 17.85% | |
| Max daily drop | 6.69% | 8.33% | |
| Max wkly drop | 10.46% | 14.28% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +332.96% | +187.55% |
| CAGR | +34.06% | +23.53% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.85 | 0.61 | |
| Max drawdown | 56.47% | 57.37% | |
| Max daily drop | 13.33% | 16.26% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.17% | 19.20% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +2187.01% | +1892.44% |
| CAGR | +36.78% | +34.90% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.95 | 0.85 | |
| Max drawdown | 56.47% | 57.37% | |
| Max daily drop | 14.03% | 17.35% | |
| Max wkly drop | 16.17% | 25.42% |
Business comparison
| Category | TSM | ASML |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | ASML Holding N.V. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | N/A | Semiconductor Equipment & Materials |
| Core business | TSMC is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, manufacturing chips for Apple (A-series, M-series), NVIDIA (AI GPUs), AMD, Qualcomm, and virtually every major fabless chip designer. Its leadership in advanced logic nodes (3nm, 2nm) is a structural competitive advantage — it is the only company capable of manufacturing the most advanced AI chips in high volume. TSMC does not design chips; its customers bring designs, and TSMC produces them. | ASML is the world's sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, which are essential for producing advanced semiconductors at nodes below 7nm. Without ASML's EUV machines, TSMC, Samsung, and Intel could not manufacture leading-edge chips. Its monopoly on EUV — protected by decades of physics, engineering, and supply chain development — makes ASML the most mission-critical supplier in the global semiconductor supply chain. Each EUV machine costs approximately €200M. |
| Investor focus | Investors track leading-edge capacity utilization (CoWoS advanced packaging for AI), N3/N2 process revenue ramp, AI-driven demand from NVIDIA and custom ASIC designers, geographic diversification (Arizona, Japan, Germany fabs), and NT$/USD exchange rate impact on reported earnings. | Investors track High-NA EUV machine orders and deliveries (the next-generation tool enabling sub-2nm chips), system backlog size, deferred revenue from installed base upgrades, and China sales exposure — which is being restricted by Dutch export controls. |
TSM strengths
- →Only company capable of mass-producing the world's most advanced logic chips at scale
- →AI chip demand (NVIDIA H100/B200, Apple silicon, custom ASICs) is driving unprecedented capex investment
- →CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is a bottleneck for AI chip production creating pricing power
ASML strengths
- →Absolute monopoly on EUV lithography — no alternative exists and cannot be replicated in short timeframes
- →High-NA EUV tools for sub-2nm chips are the next step-function growth driver
- →Installed base of 200+ EUV systems generates high-margin recurring service and upgrade revenue
Risks to watch — TSM
- →Taiwan geopolitical risk — TSMC's concentration in Taiwan is the single largest investment risk
- →US-China export restrictions limiting customers who can use TSMC's leading-edge nodes
- →Capital intensity of staying at the leading edge requires $30-40B in annual capex
Risks to watch — ASML
- →China export restrictions are removing a significant and growing market
- →Leading-edge chip demand is highly cyclical — any slowdown in AI capex reduces ASML order intake
- →Long lead times for EUV machine deliveries mean backlog visibility is strong but execution is complex
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