STM vs ON Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
STM and onsemi are both diversified IDMs competing directly in SiC power devices for EV drivetrains, alongside industrial microcontrollers (STM) and CMOS image sensors (onsemi) as secondary businesses. STM has the stronger SiC anchor position via Tesla; onsemi has more geographic customer diversification and the image sensor differentiation. Both are experiencing near-term headwinds from automotive and industrial inventory corrections.
STM vs ON is a comparison between the European SiC leader with a strategic Tesla anchor and a U.S. SiC challenger with more diversified automotive OEM relationships and image sensor exposure — both are credible long-term EV power semiconductor leaders, but with different risk concentrations.
STM holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. STM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+78.63% vs +35.02%), though ON has the better forward P/E setup (16.03x vs 19.75x for STM). On fundamentals, STM is growing revenue faster (26.10%), while ON maintains the higher operating margin (19.53%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +49.54% for STM and +48.30% for ON.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer a European IDM with deep Tesla SiC supply relationships and STM32 MCU market leadership
- value exposure to European automotive OEM EV programs through a European supply chain champion
- want combined SiC power device and microcontroller exposure to EV and industrial automation megatrends
- are comfortable with Tesla volume concentration risk and European semiconductor geopolitical dynamics
- prefer a U.S.-based SiC competitor with geographically diversified automotive OEM design wins across North America, Europe, and Korea
- value CMOS image sensor exposure to ADAS and industrial vision as a second growth driver uncorrelated to SiC
- want EV semiconductor exposure with better customer diversification than STM's Tesla concentration
- are comfortable with slower-than-projected SiC revenue ramp and automotive channel inventory correction headwinds
| Metric | STM | ON |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 69.5 | 65.0 |
| AI ranki | #46 | #82 |
| Latest closei | $50.18 | $69.98 |
| 1M returni | -0.46% | -8.62% |
| 6M returni | +63.25% | +18.03% |
| 1Y returni | +78.63% | +35.02% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | STM | ON |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $18.05K (+80.5%) started 2025-09-18 | $13.5K (+35.0%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $12.18K (+21.8%) started 2021-09-20 | $14.68K (+46.8%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $78.47K (+684.7%) started 2016-09-19 | $60.75K (+507.5%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | STM | ON |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $44.76B | $28.27B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 47.46 |
| Forward P/Ei | 19.75 | 16.03 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.42 | 3.15 |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.31 | 4.70 |
| Analyst targeti | $75.04 | $107.68 |
| Target upsidei | +49.54% | +48.30% |
| Metric | STM | ON |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 26.10% | 9.20% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 36.60% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +36.60% |
| FCF margini | +0.81% | +26.73% |
| Operating margini | 6.88% | 19.53% |
| Profit margini | 3.56% | 10.17% |
| ROIC proxyi | 2.69% | 8.31% |
| Return on equityi | 2.69% | 8.31% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.72% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 70.59% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 2 yrs | N/A |
| Betai | 1.51 | 2.02 |
| Debt/equityi | 23.45 | 65.06 |
| Current ratioi | 2.78 | 3.46 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.98 | 2.29 |
Over the past year, STM and ON have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.71), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | STM | ON |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +78.63% | +35.02% |
| CAGRi | +78.70% | +35.05% | |
| Volatilityi | 59.84% | 62.98% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.20 | 0.73 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.78 | 1.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 40.14% | 50.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.13% | 47.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.39% | 14.02% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.62% | 20.60% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.67% | 23.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.47% | 32.67% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +16.77% | +46.80% |
| CAGRi | +3.15% | +7.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 47.46% | 55.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.21 | 0.34 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.30 | 0.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.66% | 70.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.13% | 47.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.82% | 27.83% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.64% | 33.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.67% | 23.66% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.47% | 32.67% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +609.13% | +507.47% |
| CAGRi | +21.65% | +19.78% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.29% | 52.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.56 | 0.52 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.80 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.66% | 70.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.13% | 47.75% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.39% | 21.42% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.57% | 27.45% | |
| Max daily dropi | 18.95% | 26.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.46% | 43.93% |
| Category | STM | ON |
|---|---|---|
| Company | STMicroelectronics N.V. | ON Semiconductor Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| Core business | STMicroelectronics is a European IDM (integrated device manufacturer) producing microcontrollers (STM32), SiC power devices, general-purpose analog, automotive ICs, and sensors. STM's SiC strategy has been one of the most aggressive in the industry — it supplies SiC MOSFETs and modules to Tesla Model 3/Y inverters and is ramping additional automotive OEM relationships. Revenue is roughly 45% automotive, 45% industrial, and the remainder consumer/personal electronics. STM manufactures in its own fabs in France, Italy, Singapore, and Morocco. | ON Semiconductor (onsemi) is a U.S.-based IDM producing SiC power modules (EliteSiC), CMOS image sensors for ADAS, and power management ICs for automotive and industrial markets. Onsemi's SiC business competes directly with STM, targeting 800V EV drivetrains with its EliteSiC MOSFETs and modules. The company has secured automotive Tier 1 design wins at BMW, Honda, Volkswagen, and others. Its CMOS image sensor business (used in automotive cameras and industrial vision) provides meaningful revenue diversification. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on SiC revenue growth and the pace of automotive EV design-win conversions, microcontroller revenue recovery from industrial inventory corrections, gross margin improvement as SiC production yields improve, and the multi-year $5B+ SiC capacity expansion plan. | Investors focus on EliteSiC automotive design-win conversion to revenue, image sensor ADAS revenue growth, gross margin trends as SiC production scales, and the timing of industrial inventory channel recovery. |
- Deep strategic relationship with Tesla (sole SiC supplier for Model 3/Y inverters) provides a large, visible revenue anchor
- STM32 microcontroller franchise is one of the most embedded MCU platforms globally, with broad industrial and IoT design-in momentum
- European IDM structure gives exposure to European OEM EV programs (Stellantis, Renault, VW Group) that prefer European supply chains
- EliteSiC design wins span North American, European, and Korean automotive OEMs, providing geographic diversification STM lacks at Tesla-like scale
- CMOS image sensor business serves ADAS and industrial vision markets, providing revenue diversification absent from STM
- U.S.-based operations benefit from CHIPS Act incentives for domestic semiconductor manufacturing
- Tesla SiC revenue concentration is a double-edged sword — Tesla volume growth drives STM SiC revenue but Tesla's own SiC ambitions create future transition risk
- SiC gross margins are still below corporate average as yield improvement and production ramp continue
- Industrial microcontroller market has experienced a deep inventory correction that has weighed heavily on revenue since 2023
- SiC revenue ramp has been slower than management projected due to automotive channel inventory correction
- STM has a significant head start in SiC via Tesla relationships — onsemi must compete for sockets in new EV platform launches
- General automotive and industrial end-market weakness has weighed on overall revenue beyond just SiC
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