Last updated:
LIVE
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S · Healthcare
$49.38
+14.33% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company · Healthcare
$1,146.90
+4.40% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
NVO
1
LLY
3
Comparison scoreboard
LLY LEADS 3/5AI Score
NVO 39.0
LLY ✓74.8
1Y Return
NVO -20.26%
LLY ✓+48.62%
Fwd P/E
NVO ✓2.24
LLY 26.26
Target Up.
NVO -4.00%
LLY ✓+7.74%
Op. Margin
NVO N/A
LLY 49.39%
Metrics last refreshed: 7/21/2026
Quick take
NVO vs LLY: Novo Nordisk vs Eli Lilly — Which GLP-1 Stock Is Better?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Novo Nordisk is the GLP-1 pioneer with Ozempic/Wegovy and decades of manufacturing expertise, while Eli Lilly is the challenger with tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) showing superior clinical outcomes and a broader pipeline. The GLP-1 obesity drug market is enormous, but the competitive landscape between these two companies is intensifying on both clinical and commercial dimensions.
Use this NVO vs LLY comparison to choose your GLP-1 obesity drug investment. Novo Nordisk is the established market leader with lower valuation; Eli Lilly has the clinically superior drug, a broader pipeline, and more US commercial access — but trades at a significantly higher multiple.
Live analysis · updated 7/21/2026
LLY holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LLY has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+48.62% vs -20.26%), though NVO has the better forward P/E setup (2.24x vs 26.26x for LLY). Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LLY (+7.74%) than for NVO (-4.00%).
Normalized 1Y performance
NVO
LLY
Recent returns
NVO
LLY
Analyst price targets & sentiment
NVO · 12 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (2.4/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$39.87
analyst high$62.94
analyst mean$47.40
current price$49.38
-4.0% upside to analyst mean
LLY · 27 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.8/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$650.00
analyst mean$1,270.37
current price$1,146.90
+7.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
NVO may suit investors who:
- →Want the pioneering GLP-1 franchise at a more moderate valuation relative to Lilly
- →Value decades of semaglutide manufacturing and physician relationship advantages
- →Believe Novo Nordisk's next-generation pipeline will close the clinical gap with tirzepatide
- →Prefer international pharmaceutical exposure via a Danish company with global distribution
LLY may suit investors who:
- →Want the clinically superior GLP-1 drug with tirzepatide's demonstrated weight loss advantage
- →Value pipeline diversification across Alzheimer's (donanemab) and oncology
- →Believe Lilly's US-based commercial infrastructure accelerates market penetration
- →Are comfortable paying a premium multiple for what may be the most important drug platform of the decade
Performance & AI score
| Metric | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 39.0 | 74.8 |
| AI rank | #1252 | #20 |
| Latest close | $49.38 | $1,146.90 |
| 1M return | +14.33% | +4.40% |
| 6M return | -17.87% | +10.45% |
| 1Y return | -20.26% | +48.62% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.36K (-16.4%) started 2025-07-21 | $15.05K (+50.5%) started 2025-07-21 |
| 5Y ago | $13.83K (+38.3%) started 2021-07-21 | $52.4K (+424.0%) started 2021-07-21 |
| 10Y ago | $29.18K (+191.8%) started 2016-07-21 | $196.61K (+1866.1%) started 2016-07-21 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $218.45B | $1.05T |
| Trailing P/E | 11.84 | 41.84 |
| Forward P/E | 2.24 | 26.26 |
| Price/Sales | 4.73 | 14.10 |
| EV/Revenue | 1.05 | 15.08 |
| Analyst target | $47.40 | $1,270.37 |
| Target upside | -4.00% | +7.74% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 24.00% | 55.50% |
| Earnings growth | 67.10% | 169.90% |
| EPS growth | +67.10% | +169.90% |
| FCF margin | -3.67% | +12.67% |
| Operating margin | N/A | 49.39% |
| Profit margin | 37.21% | 34.99% |
| ROIC proxy | 71.40% | 107.46% |
| Return on equity | 71.40% | 107.46% |
| Dividend yield | 3.63% | 0.59% |
| Beta | 0.36 | 0.51 |
| Debt/equity | 72.09 | 139.01 |
| Current ratio | 0.79 | 1.50 |
| Quick ratio | 0.54 | 0.72 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
NVO max drawdown49.17%
LLY max drawdown23.31%
NVO max wkly drop33.45%
LLY max wkly drop17.93%
5Y risk snapshot
NVO max drawdown74.70%
LLY max drawdown34.48%
NVO max wkly drop33.45%
LLY max wkly drop17.93%
10Y risk snapshot
NVO max drawdown74.70%
LLY max drawdown34.48%
NVO max wkly drop33.45%
LLY max wkly drop17.93%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | -20.26% | +50.48% |
| CAGR | -20.27% | +50.73% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.26 | 1.15 | |
| Max drawdown | 49.17% | 23.31% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.83% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly drop | 33.45% | 17.93% | |
| 5Y | Growth | +23.80% | +403.12% |
| CAGR | +4.36% | +38.17% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.19 | 1.02 | |
| Max drawdown | 74.70% | 34.48% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.83% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly drop | 33.45% | 17.93% | |
| 10Y | Growth | +126.00% | +1564.63% |
| CAGR | +8.50% | +32.49% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.28 | 0.93 | |
| Max drawdown | 74.70% | 34.48% | |
| Max daily drop | 21.83% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly drop | 33.45% | 17.93% |
Business comparison
| Category | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Novo Nordisk A/S | Eli Lilly and Company |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | N/A | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Danish pharmaceutical company and global leader in diabetes and obesity treatment. Maker of Ozempic (semaglutide injection for diabetes) and Wegovy (semaglutide for obesity). Dominant GLP-1 market position built over decades. | US pharmaceutical company with Mounjaro/Zepbound (tirzepatide) as the GLP-1 challenger, plus Trulicity (legacy GLP-1), Verzenio (breast cancer), and a broad pipeline including Alzheimer's (donanemab) and oncology. |
| Investor focus | Wegovy supply and volume growth, Ozempic market share durability, oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) expansion, and the next generation of weight loss therapies. | Mounjaro and Zepbound volume ramp, incretin combination pipeline (orforglipron, retatrutide), Alzheimer's drug donanemab commercial launch, and manufacturing capacity expansion. |
NVO strengths
- →Pioneered the GLP-1 drug class with decades of semaglutide development and manufacturing expertise
- →Ozempic and Wegovy are the most widely prescribed GLP-1 drugs globally with strong physician familiarity
- →Manufacturing scale and capacity advantage built over many years is difficult to replicate quickly
LLY strengths
- →Tirzepatide (dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist) has shown superior weight loss vs semaglutide in head-to-head trials
- →Broader pipeline across Alzheimer's, oncology, and immunology diversifies beyond GLP-1 dependence
- →US domicile gives faster commercial access to the world's largest pharmaceutical market
Risks to watch — NVO
- →Eli Lilly's tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) showing superior weight loss outcomes in trials creates competitive pressure
- →Wegovy supply constraints have limited revenue growth and allowed competitors to capture prescriptions
- →CagriSema next-gen trial results — underperformance vs expectations caused significant share price weakness
Risks to watch — LLY
- →Extreme valuation relative to current earnings requires sustained blockbuster execution across multiple drugs
- →GLP-1 pricing pressure from payers and potential government drug pricing intervention
- →Manufacturing capacity ramp needs to keep pace with extraordinary demand
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