NVO vs LLY: Novo Nordisk vs Eli Lilly — Which GLP-1 Stock Is Better?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Novo Nordisk is the GLP-1 pioneer with Ozempic/Wegovy and decades of manufacturing expertise, while Eli Lilly is the challenger with tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) showing superior clinical outcomes and a broader pipeline. The GLP-1 obesity drug market is enormous, but the competitive landscape between these two companies is intensifying on both clinical and commercial dimensions.
Use this NVO vs LLY comparison to choose your GLP-1 obesity drug investment. Novo Nordisk is the established market leader with lower valuation; Eli Lilly has the clinically superior drug, a broader pipeline, and more US commercial access — but trades at a significantly higher multiple.
LLY holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LLY has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+56.75% vs -22.98%), though NVO has the better forward P/E setup (1.71x vs 24.87x for LLY). LLY leads on both revenue growth (47.70%) and operating margin (54.22%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NVO (+15.59%) than for LLY (+11.96%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want the pioneering GLP-1 franchise at a more moderate valuation relative to Lilly
- Value decades of semaglutide manufacturing and physician relationship advantages
- Believe Novo Nordisk's next-generation pipeline will close the clinical gap with tirzepatide
- Prefer international pharmaceutical exposure via a Danish company with global distribution
- Want the clinically superior GLP-1 drug with tirzepatide's demonstrated weight loss advantage
- Value pipeline diversification across Alzheimer's (donanemab) and oncology
- Believe Lilly's US-based commercial infrastructure accelerates market penetration
- Are comfortable paying a premium multiple for what may be the most important drug platform of the decade
| Metric | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 41.5 | 78.4 |
| AI ranki | #1069 | #25 |
| Latest closei | $39.05 | $1,273.46 |
| 1M returni | +2.31% | +10.64% |
| 3M returni | -18.91% | +6.47% |
| 6M returni | -3.94% | +44.06% |
| 1Y returni | -22.98% | +56.75% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $8.09K (-19.1%) started 2025-10-23 | $15.51K (+55.1%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $9.29K (-7.1%) started 2021-10-25 | $55.98K (+459.8%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $31.33K (+213.3%) started 2016-10-24 | $223.2K (+2132.0%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $172.28B | $1.05T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 9.46 | 39.36 |
| Forward P/Ei | 1.71 | 24.87 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.52 | 14.10 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.81 | 13.72 |
| Analyst targeti | $45.14 | $1,315.04 |
| Target upsidei | +15.59% | +11.96% |
| Metric | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 2.10% | 47.70% |
| Earnings growthi | -20.60% | 26.20% |
| EPS growthi | -20.60% | +26.20% |
| FCF margini | +11.44% | +13.89% |
| Operating margini | 42.54% | 54.22% |
| Profit margini | 35.35% | 33.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | 59.81% | 102.29% |
| Return on equityi | 59.81% | 102.29% |
| Dividend yieldi | 4.60% | 0.59% |
| Payout ratioi | 45.09% | 21.69% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 7 yrs | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| Debt/equityi | 63.33 | 162.07 |
| Current ratioi | 0.87 | 1.35 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.64 | 0.68 |
Over the past year, NVO and LLY have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.20), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -22.98% | +55.10% |
| CAGRi | -22.99% | +55.20% | |
| Volatilityi | 45.48% | 34.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.44 | 1.31 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.59 | 2.19 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.67% | 23.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 35.92% | 2.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.59% | 6.89% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 26.78% | 8.83% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.43% | 7.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 26.95% | 8.60% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -17.51% | +439.21% |
| CAGRi | -3.78% | +40.12% | |
| Volatilityi | 39.06% | 32.83% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.01 | 1.06 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.02 | 1.63 | |
| Max drawdowni | 74.70% | 34.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 71.22% | 2.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.85% | 7.51% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.92% | 10.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.83% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.45% | 17.93% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +141.72% | +1803.62% |
| CAGRi | +9.23% | +34.28% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.79% | 30.63% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.30 | 0.97 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.41 | 1.50 | |
| Max drawdowni | 74.70% | 34.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 71.22% | 2.54% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.40% | 6.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.80% | 9.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.83% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.45% | 17.93% |
| Category | NVO | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Novo Nordisk A/S | Eli Lilly and Company |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Danish pharmaceutical company and global leader in diabetes and obesity treatment. Maker of Ozempic (semaglutide injection for diabetes) and Wegovy (semaglutide for obesity). Dominant GLP-1 market position built over decades. | US pharmaceutical company with Mounjaro/Zepbound (tirzepatide) as the GLP-1 challenger, plus Trulicity (legacy GLP-1), Verzenio (breast cancer), and a broad pipeline including Alzheimer's (donanemab) and oncology. |
| Investor focus | Wegovy supply and volume growth, Ozempic market share durability, oral semaglutide (Rybelsus) expansion, and the next generation of weight loss therapies. | Mounjaro and Zepbound volume ramp, incretin combination pipeline (orforglipron, retatrutide), Alzheimer's drug donanemab commercial launch, and manufacturing capacity expansion. |
- Pioneered the GLP-1 drug class with decades of semaglutide development and manufacturing expertise
- Ozempic and Wegovy are the most widely prescribed GLP-1 drugs globally with strong physician familiarity
- Manufacturing scale and capacity advantage built over many years is difficult to replicate quickly
- Tirzepatide (dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist) has shown superior weight loss vs semaglutide in head-to-head trials
- Broader pipeline across Alzheimer's, oncology, and immunology diversifies beyond GLP-1 dependence
- US domicile gives faster commercial access to the world's largest pharmaceutical market
- Eli Lilly's tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) showing superior weight loss outcomes in trials creates competitive pressure
- Wegovy supply constraints have limited revenue growth and allowed competitors to capture prescriptions
- CagriSema next-gen trial results — underperformance vs expectations caused significant share price weakness
- Extreme valuation relative to current earnings requires sustained blockbuster execution across multiple drugs
- GLP-1 pricing pressure from payers and potential government drug pricing intervention
- Manufacturing capacity ramp needs to keep pace with extraordinary demand
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