LLY vs MRK Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Eli Lilly and Merck represent two different high-growth pharmaceutical stories: Lilly is riding the largest drug market opportunity in history with GLP-1 obesity and diabetes drugs; Merck is maximizing the remaining years of Keytruda's patent protection while building a bridge pipeline for 2028. Both are high-quality large-cap pharma investments trading at premium multiples for different reasons.
LLY vs MRK is a growth-rate comparison — Lilly at unprecedented revenue growth from GLP-1 obesity demand (trading at premium multiples) versus Merck's more modest near-term growth with significant 2028 patent cliff overhang, offering lower relative valuation for income investors.
LLY holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MRK leads on both 1-year return (+80.14%) and forward P/E quality (15.55x vs 24.87x for LLY), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. LLY leads on both revenue growth (47.70%) and operating margin (54.22%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LLY (+11.96%) than for MRK (+0.26%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the leader in GLP-1 obesity and diabetes treatment targeting one of the largest untapped pharmaceutical markets in history
- value tirzepatide's dual GIP/GLP-1 mechanism as the most efficacious obesity drug commercially available vs. semaglutide
- want exposure to donanemab Alzheimer's as a second potential multi-billion blockbuster from the immunology pipeline
- are comfortable with very premium valuation (100x+ earnings) reflecting GLP-1 growth expectations and potential obesity market size
- prefer Keytruda's established oncology leadership at a lower valuation multiple than Lilly's GLP-1 premium
- value Winrevair's PAH launch and ADC pipeline as incremental catalysts extending revenue through the Keytruda cliff period
- want pharmaceutical dividend income at a more reasonable current valuation than Lilly's growth multiple
- are comfortable with Keytruda IRA pricing headwinds and the 2028 US patent cliff as known risks factored into the investment thesis
| Metric | LLY | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 75.8 | 51.4 |
| AI ranki | #21 | #455 |
| Latest closei | $1,152.93 | $146.87 |
| 1M returni | -9.95% | -3.50% |
| 6M returni | +25.66% | +28.61% |
| 1Y returni | +51.12% | +80.14% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LLY | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $15.11K (+51.1%) started 2025-09-18 | $18.01K (+80.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $53.61K (+436.1%) started 2021-09-20 | $25.27K (+152.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $198.01K (+1880.1%) started 2016-09-19 | $43.39K (+333.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LLY | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $1.05T | $366B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 39.36 | 118.68 |
| Forward P/Ei | 24.87 | 15.55 |
| Price/Salesi | 14.10 | 3.10 |
| EV/Revenuei | 13.72 | 6.20 |
| Analyst targeti | $1,315.04 | $148.73 |
| Target upsidei | +11.96% | +0.26% |
| Metric | LLY | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 47.70% | 5.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 26.20% | -19.30% |
| EPS growthi | +26.20% | -19.30% |
| FCF margini | +13.89% | +22.79% |
| Operating margini | 54.22% | -0.24% |
| Profit margini | 33.53% | 4.77% |
| ROIC proxyi | 102.29% | 6.96% |
| Return on equityi | 102.29% | 6.96% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.59% | 2.29% |
| Payout ratioi | 21.69% | 268.80% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.51 | 0.21 |
| Debt/equityi | 162.07 | 128.41 |
| Current ratioi | 1.35 | 1.32 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.68 | 0.74 |
Over the past year, LLY and MRK have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.44), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LLY | MRK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +51.12% | +80.14% |
| CAGRi | +51.16% | +80.21% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.78% | 30.47% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.21 | 1.94 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.05 | 3.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 23.31% | 11.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.95% | 6.12% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.58% | 3.60% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.60% | 4.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.79% | 4.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.60% | 6.49% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +416.44% | +126.61% |
| CAGRi | +38.91% | +17.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.74% | 24.94% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.03 | 0.60 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.59 | 0.89 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.48% | 43.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.95% | 6.12% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.39% | 12.57% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.20% | 17.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.14% | 9.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.93% | 13.42% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1588.83% | +224.39% |
| CAGRi | +32.68% | +12.49% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.54% | 23.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.93 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.44 | 0.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.48% | 43.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 9.95% | 6.12% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.96% | 9.82% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.34% | 13.74% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.14% | 9.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.93% | 13.71% |
| Category | LLY | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Eli Lilly and Company | Merck & Co., Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Eli Lilly is the global leader in GLP-1 agonist obesity and diabetes drugs — Mounjaro/Zepbound (tirzepatide) and Trulicity (dulaglutide). Tirzepatide's efficacy in weight loss has made it one of the fastest-growing drug launches in pharmaceutical history. Lilly also has leading positions in Alzheimer's disease (donanemab), immunology (Taltz, Olumiant), and cancer (Verzenio). The obesity and diabetes market opportunity is potentially the largest in pharmaceutical history, with hundreds of millions of patients globally. | Merck's Keytruda is the most prescribed cancer immunotherapy globally, generating $25B+ annually across 30+ approved cancer types. Gardasil HPV vaccine and Winrevair (PAH) supplement the oncology franchise. Keytruda's US patent expiry around 2028 is the primary long-term challenge. Merck's ADC pipeline and Winrevair launch are the primary near-term new products. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Mounjaro diabetes and Zepbound obesity revenue growth, manufacturing capacity expansion to meet surging demand, donanemab Alzheimer's drug commercial launch, and pipeline expansion into cardiometabolic, CNS, and oncology with GLP-1 platform assets. | Investors track Keytruda global expansion and new approvals, Gardasil recovery, Winrevair ramp, and the 2028 Keytruda patent cliff mitigation pipeline. |
- Tirzepatide's dual GIP/GLP-1 mechanism shows superior weight loss vs. semaglutide in head-to-head studies, establishing Lilly's leadership in GLP-1
- Obesity drug market represents potentially $100B+ annual opportunity as treatment-eligible patients are still largely untreated
- Donanemab Alzheimer's drug could open a significant new therapeutic franchise if physician adoption of amyloid removal therapy grows
- Keytruda first-line oncology position is deeply embedded in standard of care guidelines globally across multiple major cancer types
- Winrevair PAH mechanism differentiates Merck in a growing cardiovascular disease market with unmet need
- Balance sheet strength supports M&A to address the Keytruda cliff before 2028
- Manufacturing capacity constraints have limited tirzepatide supply, creating shortages and impeding even faster revenue growth
- Novo Nordisk (semaglutide) competes directly with aggressive manufacturing investment and an earlier market position in GLP-1
- Premium valuation (100x+ earnings at peak) requires sustained tirzepatide execution and successful pipeline diversification
- Keytruda IRA drug price negotiation reducing US Medicare pricing from 2028 onward
- Pipeline must produce commercially significant products before Keytruda LOE to sustain earnings trajectory
- Gardasil China headwinds from regulatory and reimbursement policy have suppressed vaccine revenue
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