JAZZ vs AXSM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
JAZZ is an established specialty CNS pharmaceutical company with a dominant narcolepsy oxybate franchise facing generic competition, while AXSM is an emerging CNS company commercializing Auvelity as a novel major depressive disorder treatment. Both operate in the CNS specialty space but at very different stages of commercial maturity and with different pipeline dynamics.
JAZZ vs AXSM captures CNS pharmaceutical evolution — Jazz's established but challenged oxybate franchise versus Axsome's commercial ramp of a novel antidepressant in the massive depression treatment market.
JAZZ holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. JAZZ leads on both 1-year return (+92.70%) and forward P/E quality (9.52x vs 43.85x for AXSM), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, AXSM is growing revenue faster (45.50%), while JAZZ maintains the higher operating margin (26.91%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for AXSM (+29.30%) than for JAZZ (+17.96%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want established CNS specialty pharma exposure through narcolepsy franchise leadership and rare epilepsy with Epidiolex
- Value Jazz's commercial infrastructure and distribution expertise across multiple specialty CNS and oncology products
- Believe Xyrem-to-Xywav transition protects the oxybate franchise while diversification limits earnings concentration risk
- Want early-stage commercial CNS pharmaceutical exposure to a novel MDD treatment in one of the largest psychiatric markets
- See Auvelity's differentiated rapid-onset mechanism as enabling meaningful market share capture in the antidepressant market
- Value Axsome's pipeline in additional CNS indications as providing multiple future commercial opportunities beyond MDD
| Metric | JAZZ | AXSM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.3 | 67.8 |
| AI ranki | #951 | #58 |
| Latest closei | $243.84 | $210.12 |
| 1M returni | -3.65% | -3.70% |
| 6M returni | +34.13% | +33.90% |
| 1Y returni | +92.70% | +77.12% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | JAZZ | AXSM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $18.82K (+88.2%) started 2025-09-17 | $17.71K (+77.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $18.3K (+83.0%) started 2021-09-17 | $71.89K (+618.9%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $19.32K (+93.2%) started 2016-09-19 | $280.53K (+2705.3%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | JAZZ | AXSM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $15.93B | $11.56B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 16.79 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 9.52 | 43.85 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 3.92 | 14.77 |
| Analyst targeti | $289.45 | $285.42 |
| Target upsidei | +17.96% | +29.30% |
| Metric | JAZZ | AXSM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 15.50% | 45.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | +31.07% | -0.59% |
| Operating margini | 26.91% | -23.42% |
| Profit margini | 20.45% | -24.68% |
| ROIC proxyi | 22.11% | -245.10% |
| Return on equityi | 22.11% | -245.10% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.36 | 0.71 |
| Debt/equityi | 91.83 | 269.73 |
| Current ratioi | 1.78 | 1.43 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.38 | 1.30 |
Over the past year, JAZZ and AXSM have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.25), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | JAZZ | AXSM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +88.24% | +77.12% |
| CAGRi | +88.41% | +77.19% | |
| Volatilityi | 37.07% | 43.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.77 | 1.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.59 | 2.69 | |
| Max drawdowni | 11.42% | 22.20% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.80% | 17.65% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.81% | 5.98% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.85% | 8.74% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.38% | 7.10% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 7.84% | 12.35% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +83.04% | +618.85% |
| CAGRi | +12.85% | +48.44% | |
| Volatilityi | 31.65% | 65.85% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.40 | 0.84 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.61 | 1.48 | |
| Max drawdowni | 42.03% | 53.50% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.80% | 17.65% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.15% | 15.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 21.66% | 18.72% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.14% | 21.99% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.55% | 33.01% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +93.25% | +2705.34% |
| CAGRi | +6.81% | +39.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.68% | 90.34% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.23 | 0.69 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.33 | 1.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 52.10% | 81.26% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.80% | 17.65% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.36% | 33.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 24.94% | 40.04% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.60% | 46.50% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.79% | 55.32% |
| Category | JAZZ | AXSM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Biotechnology | Biotechnology |
| Core business | Jazz Pharmaceuticals develops and markets specialty pharmaceuticals for neuroscience (sleep disorders, epilepsy) and oncology, with its oxybate franchise (Xyrem/Xywav for narcolepsy) as the largest revenue contributor alongside Epidiolex (cannabidiol for rare epilepsy syndromes). | Axsome Therapeutics is a CNS-focused biopharmaceutical company commercializing Auvelity (dextromethorphan-bupropion) for major depressive disorder (MDD) and Sunosi (solriamfetol) for excessive daytime sleepiness in narcolepsy and sleep apnea, with pipeline assets in additional CNS indications. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Jazz's oxybate franchise volume transition from Xyrem to lower-sodium Xywav, Epidiolex revenue growth in new indications, pipeline progress in sleep apnea and oncology, and the company's debt management following the GW Pharmaceuticals acquisition. | Investors track Axsome's Auvelity prescription volume and revenue ramp, Sunosi growth, and the ADVANCE program studying AXS-05 in additional indications, evaluating the commercial trajectory of its novel MDD treatment. |
- Xyrem/Xywav oxybate franchise dominates narcolepsy cataplexy treatment with high switching costs from specialized REMS distribution program
- Epidiolex is the first FDA-approved cannabidiol medicine with orphan drug exclusivity for two rare severe childhood epilepsy syndromes
- Diversified CNS and oncology portfolio beyond the oxybate core reduces concentration risk from generic oxybate competition
- Auvelity has a differentiated mechanism of action (NMDA antagonist + reuptake inhibition) and demonstrated rapid-onset antidepressant effect in clinical trials, addressing a significant unmet need for faster-acting MDD treatment
- Major depressive disorder is one of the largest pharmaceutical markets globally, providing a massive addressable patient population
- Sunosi partnership provides commercialization expertise and a sleep medicine prescriber relationship as Axsome builds its sales force
- Generic sodium oxybate (Lumryz from Avadel) has been approved and represents competition to Jazz's oxybate franchise
- GW Pharmaceuticals acquisition debt weighs on financial flexibility while the CNS and oncology pipelines require continued R&D investment
- REMS (Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy) distribution program for oxybate may create patient access challenges
- Antidepressant market is highly competitive — gaining prescriber attention and market share from established SSRIs, SNRIs, and Spravato requires extensive physician education
- Axsome is still early-stage commercially, with Auvelity launch costs weighing on profitability in early commercial years
- Prior authorization and insurance coverage requirements create patient access challenges for new branded psychiatry products
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