ARWR vs MRNA Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ARWR and MRNA are both RNA-based medicine companies but at very different scales and with different technologies. Arrowhead's RNAi silencing approach has validated partnerships with major pharma across multiple disease areas — lower revenue, more diversified pipeline risk, earlier-stage. Moderna is post-blockbuster managing COVID revenue decline while investing $4-5B annually to establish the mRNA platform beyond COVID. ARWR is a diversified pre-profitability RNA biotech; MRNA is a commercial-stage mRNA platform company managing a difficult post-COVID transition.
ARWR vs MRNA — Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (RNAi silencing platform with multiple Phase 2 programs across cardiometabolic, liver, and respiratory disease supported by major pharma partnerships) versus Moderna (commercial mRNA platform company with COVID vaccine legacy, RSV vaccine launch, and personalized cancer vaccine pipeline managing post-COVID revenue normalization with $12B+ cash runway).
ARWR holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MRNA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+924.87% vs +42.55%), though ARWR has the better forward P/E setup (-17.24x vs -30.13x for MRNA). ARWR leads on both revenue growth (171.00%) and operating margin (-226.03%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ARWR (+32.77%) than for MRNA (-22.73%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want diversified RNA therapeutics exposure with multiple parallel Phase 2 programs across different disease areas — more shots on goal than single-program biotechs
- value Arrowhead's pharma partnership strategy as validation of the TRiM platform and source of near-term milestone payments reducing dilution risk vs fully internally funded biotech
- believe RNAi as a technology class has demonstrated clinical proof of concept through Alnylam's approved products and Arrowhead represents a less premium-valued platform approach
- are comfortable with pre-profitability biotech risk and 3-5 year timeline for Phase 2 programs to generate definitive clinical efficacy data
- believe Moderna's mRNA platform has demonstrated commercial viability and will successfully diversify beyond COVID — RSV vaccine approval validates the platform hypothesis beyond pandemic vaccines
- are positive on personalized cancer vaccines as a genuine breakthrough — mRNA-4157 in Phase 3 with Merck's Keytruda represents potentially transformative immunotherapy if efficacy data confirms early results
- believe Moderna's $12B+ cash runway provides sufficient time to generate revenue from RSV, flu, and other vaccines before significant dilution is required
- are comfortable with the scale of post-COVID transition challenge and believe Moderna's scientific capabilities make the transition achievable over 3-5 years
| Metric | ARWR | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 65.1 | 57.6 |
| AI ranki | #70 | #198 |
| Latest closei | $57.46 | $241.46 |
| 1M returni | -6.63% | +28.81% |
| 3M returni | -33.05% | +348.31% |
| 6M returni | -26.29% | +397.45% |
| 1Y returni | +42.55% | +924.87% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ARWR | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $14.25K (+42.5%) started 2025-11-05 | $99.24K (+892.4%) started 2025-11-06 |
| 5Y ago | $6.96K (-30.4%) started 2021-11-08 | $9.87K (-1.3%) started 2021-11-08 |
| 10Y ago | $97.89K (+878.9%) started 2016-11-07 | $129.82K (+1198.2%) started 2018-12-07 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ARWR | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $11.7B | $55.09B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | -17.24 | -30.13 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 17.16 | 23.00 |
| Analyst targeti | $110.00 | $106.63 |
| Target upsidei | +32.77% | -22.73% |
| Metric | ARWR | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 171.00% | 2.10% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | N/A |
| EPS growthi | N/A | N/A |
| FCF margini | -7.26% | +13.43% |
| Operating margini | -226.03% | -557.93% |
| Profit margini | -47.79% | -141.43% |
| ROIC proxyi | -55.21% | -39.00% |
| Return on equityi | -55.21% | -39.00% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.28 | 0.90 |
| Debt/equityi | 295.98 | 19.04 |
| Current ratioi | 5.90 | 2.29 |
| Quick ratioi | 5.71 | 2.07 |
Over the past year, ARWR and MRNA have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.14), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ARWR | MRNA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +42.55% | +892.44% |
| CAGRi | +42.58% | +894.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 61.09% | 195.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.81 | 1.74 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.37 | 6.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 37.60% | 34.16% | |
| Current drawdowni | 35.86% | 1.77% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 10.25% | 11.05% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.66% | 14.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.40% | 23.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 20.38% | 18.08% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -30.36% | -1.32% |
| CAGRi | -6.99% | -0.26% | |
| Volatilityi | 64.68% | 104.31% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.14 | 0.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.21 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 87.89% | 93.93% | |
| Current drawdowni | 35.86% | 34.48% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 53.58% | 71.81% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 58.20% | 73.99% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.85% | 23.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.69% | 31.60% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +878.88% | +1198.17% |
| CAGRi | +25.64% | +38.24% | |
| Volatilityi | 74.12% | 96.61% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.64 | 0.66 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.95 | 1.35 | |
| Max drawdowni | 88.96% | 95.38% | |
| Current drawdowni | 36.49% | 50.16% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 43.24% | 57.57% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 50.80% | 65.33% | |
| Max daily dropi | 67.20% | 23.55% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 70.60% | 33.81% |
| Category | ARWR | MRNA |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. | Moderna Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Biotechnology | Biotechnology |
| Core business | Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals develops RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics — using short RNA sequences to silence disease-causing genes. RNAi works by introducing small interfering RNA (siRNA) that degrades specific mRNA sequences before they can produce disease proteins. Arrowhead's TRiM platform delivers siRNA to specific tissues (liver, lung, muscle) using proprietary targeting ligands. Key pipeline programs: ARO-ATTR (transthyretin amyloidosis — competing with Alnylam's patisiran), ARO-AAT (alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency), ARO-HSD (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis — MASH), and multiple cardiovascular programs (PCSK9, ANGPTL3). Arrowhead partners programs with major pharma companies (Janssen, Glaxo, Horizon) receiving milestone payments and royalties. | Moderna developed the first FDA-approved mRNA vaccine platform with its COVID-19 vaccine (Spikevax) that generated $18B+ in peak revenues in 2021-2022. Post-COVID, Moderna's revenues have declined dramatically as COVID vaccine demand normalized. Moderna is advancing its mRNA platform across multiple product candidates: RSV vaccine (mRNA-1345 — FDA approved in 2024 for older adults, providing first non-COVID commercial product), flu vaccines, personalized cancer vaccines (individualized neoantigen vaccines in partnership with Merck for melanoma), cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine, and rare disease mRNA therapeutics (propionic acidemia, methylmalonic acidemia). |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Arrowhead's pipeline partner milestones and royalty potential, clinical data readouts (multiple Phase 2 programs in 2024-2025), platform breadth across therapeutic areas, and path to profitability as partnerships monetize the RNAi platform. | Investors focus on Moderna's post-COVID revenue diversification (RSV vaccine launch, flu vaccine clinical progression), cash burn rate (Moderna is spending $4-5B annually on R&D), personalized cancer vaccine partnership with Merck, and how quickly the pipeline can replace COVID revenue. |
- Diverse RNAi pipeline across multiple disease areas: Arrowhead's TRiM platform has demonstrated tissue-specific delivery in liver, lung, and muscle — enabling programs across cardiometabolic, liver, respiratory, and rare disease
- Pharma partnership validation and milestone revenue: multiple major pharma partnerships (Janssen for HBV, Glaxo for cardiovascular) validate Arrowhead's technology and provide near-term milestone cash
- Less competitive position than Alnylam's head-to-head programs: Arrowhead's differentiated delivery and dosing in shared indication areas (ATTR) may allow competitive positioning even in crowded spaces
- First-mover mRNA platform with regulatory approval precedent: Moderna's COVID vaccine established the mRNA platform with FDA regulators — clinical development pathway and manufacturing are validated at commercial scale
- RSV vaccine first commercial product beyond COVID: mResVIA approval provides diversification from COVID dependency and demonstrates mRNA platform versatility for non-COVID infectious disease
- Personalized cancer vaccine (MRNA-4157): individualized neoantigen cancer vaccines in Phase 3 with Merck (Keytruda combination) represent potentially transformative oncology application — each patient receives a customized vaccine targeting their specific tumor mutations
- Pre-profitability with ongoing cash burn: Arrowhead funds pipeline through partnerships and equity raises — profitability depends on clinical and commercial milestone payments that require successful trials
- Clinical-stage risk across large Phase 2 portfolio: multiple simultaneous Phase 2 programs mean multiple potential data failures — negative data from major programs significantly impairs valuation
- Alnylam competition in shared indications: Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (pioneer RNAi company) has already approved products and significant clinical head start in several indications Arrowhead is also pursuing
- $12B+ cash runway burning rapidly: Moderna has $12B+ in cash but is spending $4-5B annually — revenue must accelerate dramatically or cash duration shortens significantly
- COVID revenue collapse: from $18B peak to $3-4B by 2023-2024 — COVID vaccine market is now competitive, commoditized, and much smaller than pandemic peak
- mRNA platform unproven outside infectious disease at commercial scale: cancer vaccines, rare disease therapeutics, and other mRNA applications are pre-commercial — platform versatility hypothesis remains clinically unproven at commercial scale
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