MRNA vs VRTX Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Moderna and Vertex Pharmaceuticals both represent innovative biotechnology platforms, but Moderna is working to diversify its messenger RNA technology beyond a declining COVID-19 vaccine franchise, while Vertex maintains a durable, highly profitable cystic fibrosis franchise while expanding into new therapeutic areas from a position of financial strength.
Moderna offers a higher-risk, platform-technology reset story as it seeks to diversify beyond COVID-19 vaccines, while Vertex offers a more durable, cash-generative franchise expanding into new areas from strength. Consider whether you prefer Moderna's platform diversification turnaround potential or Vertex's proven franchise durability.
VRTX holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MRNA has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+505.27% vs +31.32%), though VRTX has the better forward P/E setup (24.63x vs -30.13x for MRNA). VRTX leads on both revenue growth (12.50%) and operating margin (38.05%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for VRTX (+3.96%) than for MRNA (-22.73%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Believe messenger RNA technology has broad long-term applicability across vaccines, rare disease, and oncology
- See turnaround potential as pipeline diversification efforts progress beyond the COVID-19 vaccine franchise
- Are comfortable with continued cash burn during the transition to new therapeutic areas
- Value the established manufacturing and commercial infrastructure built during the pandemic vaccine rollout
- Want exposure to a near-monopoly position in cystic fibrosis treatment with a highly durable core franchise
- Believe the expanding pipeline into pain management and gene editing therapies will provide new growth vectors
- Value a strong track record of successful drug development and commercialization execution
- Prefer a proven, profitable franchise over a platform-technology turnaround story
| Metric | MRNA | VRTX |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 56.5 | 53.5 |
| AI ranki | #246 | #334 |
| Latest closei | $154.04 | $508.34 |
| 1M returni | -11.66% | -7.92% |
| 6M returni | +194.14% | +10.98% |
| 1Y returni | +505.27% | +31.32% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MRNA | VRTX |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $60.53K (+505.3%) started 2025-09-18 | $13.13K (+31.3%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $3.64K (-63.6%) started 2021-09-20 | $27.38K (+173.8%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $82.82K (+728.2%) started 2018-12-07 | $55.7K (+457.0%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MRNA | VRTX |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $55.09B | $137.3B |
| Trailing P/Ei | N/A | 31.55 |
| Forward P/Ei | -30.13 | 24.63 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 10.42 |
| EV/Revenuei | 23.00 | 10.44 |
| Analyst targeti | $106.63 | $563.12 |
| Target upsidei | -22.73% | +3.96% |
| Metric | MRNA | VRTX |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 2.10% | 12.50% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 8.00% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +8.00% |
| FCF margini | +13.43% | +20.88% |
| Operating margini | -557.93% | 38.05% |
| Profit margini | -141.43% | 35.00% |
| ROIC proxyi | -39.00% | 23.54% |
| Return on equityi | -39.00% | 23.54% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| Debt/equityi | 19.04 | 9.77 |
| Current ratioi | 2.29 | 3.19 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.07 | 2.54 |
Over the past year, MRNA and VRTX have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.28), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MRNA | VRTX |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +505.27% | +31.32% |
| CAGRi | +506.01% | +31.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 192.18% | 28.72% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.46 | 0.94 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 5.95 | 1.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 34.16% | 15.21% | |
| Current drawdowni | 11.66% | 8.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.56% | 5.53% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.35% | 7.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.55% | 4.56% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 18.08% | 9.32% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -63.61% | +173.79% |
| CAGRi | -18.32% | +22.34% | |
| Volatilityi | 103.99% | 28.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.12 | 0.69 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.28 | 0.97 | |
| Max drawdowni | 95.08% | 29.07% | |
| Current drawdowni | 66.12% | 8.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 76.44% | 7.22% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 78.10% | 9.56% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.55% | 20.60% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.81% | 20.71% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +728.17% | +457.02% |
| CAGRi | +31.21% | +18.74% | |
| Volatilityi | 96.54% | 32.67% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.61 | 0.55 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.24 | 0.82 | |
| Max drawdowni | 95.38% | 41.60% | |
| Current drawdowni | 68.20% | 8.89% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 57.58% | 10.93% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 65.45% | 14.67% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.55% | 20.70% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 33.81% | 22.29% |
| Category | MRNA | VRTX |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Moderna, Inc. | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Biotechnology | Biotechnology |
| Core business | A biotechnology company built around messenger RNA technology, initially known for its COVID-19 vaccine, now working to expand its pipeline into other vaccines, rare disease treatments, and oncology therapies. | A biopharmaceutical company with a dominant position in cystic fibrosis treatments, alongside an expanding pipeline into pain management, gene editing therapies, and other therapeutic areas. |
| Investor focus | Respiratory vaccine portfolio revenue trends, pipeline diversification progress beyond COVID-19 vaccines, and cash burn management as the company invests in new therapeutic areas. | Cystic fibrosis franchise growth and market penetration, new therapeutic area pipeline progress including pain management and gene editing therapies, and overall revenue diversification pace. |
- Messenger RNA technology platform provides a versatile foundation applicable across vaccines, rare disease, and oncology therapeutic areas
- Established manufacturing and commercial infrastructure built during the COVID-19 vaccine rollout supports future product launches
- Pipeline diversification efforts into new vaccines and rare disease treatments could reduce reliance on the COVID-19 franchise over time
- Near-monopoly position in cystic fibrosis treatment provides a highly durable, high-margin core franchise
- Expanding pipeline into pain management and gene editing therapies provides new long-term growth vectors beyond cystic fibrosis
- Strong track record of successful drug development and commercialization supports confidence in pipeline execution
- Revenue has declined substantially from pandemic-era COVID-19 vaccine peak levels, requiring new products to offset the decline
- Pipeline diversification into new therapeutic areas carries clinical and commercial execution risk with uncertain timelines
- Cash burn from continued research and development investment requires successful new product launches to reach sustainable profitability
- Heavy revenue concentration in cystic fibrosis creates dependency on a single therapeutic franchise despite its dominance
- New therapeutic area expansion into pain management and gene editing carries clinical and commercial execution risk
- Eventual competitive entry into cystic fibrosis treatment, while not imminent, remains a long-term consideration
Want deeper AI forecasts?
This comparison page is public and free forever. Subscribers can unlock saved watchlists, full AI rankings, detailed forecasts, and interactive analysis tools.
Full valuation workup with AI Score, Monte Carlo forecast, and bull/bear case — free preview, premium data from $3.99.