UNH vs CVS Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
UnitedHealth and CVS are both vertically integrating across the healthcare value chain but from different starting points and with very different execution records. UnitedHealth is the more proven compounder with superior margins and a cleaner balance sheet, while CVS is a higher-risk turnaround integrating multiple large acquisitions simultaneously. UNH trades at a premium valuation reflecting its track record; CVS trades at a discount reflecting integration uncertainty.
The choice between UNH and CVS is essentially between premium-priced execution reliability and a discount-priced integration bet — investors should assess whether CVS's strategic vision is worth the balance sheet and execution risk compared to UnitedHealth's more straightforward compounding story.
CVS holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. CVS leads on both 1-year return (+19.38%) and forward P/E quality (10.94x vs 17.70x for UNH), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. On fundamentals, CVS is growing revenue faster (7.10%), while UNH maintains the higher operating margin (7.13%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CVS (+24.74%) than for UNH (+19.66%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want the highest-quality managed care compounder with a proven multi-decade track record
- value Optum's health services diversification beyond pure insurance earnings
- prefer companies with cleaner balance sheets and consistent free cash flow
- are comfortable paying a premium multiple for superior execution
- see value in CVS's healthcare ecosystem strategy at a discounted valuation
- believe Aetna insurance margins will normalize as medical inflation moderates
- want exposure to primary care expansion via Oak Street Health's Medicare Advantage alignment
- are willing to accept integration risk for potential multiple expansion
| Metric | UNH | CVS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 52.2 | 42.9 |
| AI ranki | #408 | #904 |
| Latest closei | $376.90 | $88.84 |
| 1M returni | -3.01% | -5.14% |
| 6M returni | +34.40% | +23.63% |
| 1Y returni | +12.57% | +19.38% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | UNH | CVS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.26K (+12.6%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.94K (+19.4%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $10.12K (+1.2%) started 2021-09-20 | $13.55K (+35.5%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $35.56K (+255.6%) started 2016-09-19 | $17.63K (+76.3%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | UNH | CVS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $356.47B | $119.02B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 25.51 | 24.55 |
| Forward P/Ei | 17.70 | 10.94 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.67 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.90 | 0.44 |
| Analyst targeti | $475.23 | $116.08 |
| Target upsidei | +19.66% | +24.74% |
| Metric | UNH | CVS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 0.40% | 7.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 61.50% | 188.80% |
| EPS growthi | +61.50% | +188.80% |
| FCF margini | +5.39% | +1.96% |
| Operating margini | 7.13% | 3.86% |
| Profit margini | 3.14% | 1.18% |
| ROIC proxyi | 14.15% | 6.21% |
| Return on equityi | 14.15% | 6.21% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.34% | 2.86% |
| Payout ratioi | 57.52% | 70.18% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| Debt/equityi | 69.21 | 95.50 |
| Current ratioi | 0.78 | 0.87 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.69 | 0.62 |
Over the past year, UNH and CVS have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.65), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | UNH | CVS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +12.57% | +19.38% |
| CAGRi | +12.58% | +19.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 34.42% | 30.75% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.39 | 0.59 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.52 | 0.80 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.98% | 19.67% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.62% | 19.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.59% | 5.97% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.69% | 7.79% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.61% | 14.15% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.46% | 10.46% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -3.92% | +18.87% |
| CAGRi | -0.80% | +3.52% | |
| Volatilityi | 32.10% | 30.26% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.00 | 0.12 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.00 | 0.16 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.66% | 56.79% | |
| Current drawdowni | 39.23% | 19.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 18.12% | 24.08% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.58% | 27.96% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.38% | 16.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.05% | 20.15% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +210.79% | +30.07% |
| CAGRi | +12.01% | +2.66% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.37% | 29.47% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.38 | 0.09 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.52 | 0.12 | |
| Max drawdowni | 61.66% | 56.79% | |
| Current drawdowni | 39.23% | 19.67% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.67% | 20.62% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 18.91% | 24.08% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.38% | 16.84% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.05% | 20.15% |
| Category | UNH | CVS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | CVS Health Corporation |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Healthcare Plans | Healthcare Plans |
| Core business | UnitedHealth Group operates through two segments: UnitedHealthcare (health insurance covering commercial, Medicare Advantage, and Medicaid) and Optum (health services including pharmacy benefit management, analytics, and care delivery). Optum has become the larger profit driver and the key differentiator — its vertical integration across insurance and care delivery gives UnitedHealth structural cost advantages and data network effects that competitors cannot easily replicate. | CVS Health has transformed from a pharmacy retailer into a vertically integrated healthcare company through the acquisitions of Aetna (insurance) and Signify Health and Oak Street Health (care delivery). It operates through four segments: Health Care Benefits (Aetna insurance), Health Services (Caremark PBM), Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness (retail pharmacies), and a growing primary care network. The integration of these segments into a 'health super-highway' is the central strategic thesis. |
| Investor focus | Investors track the UnitedHealthcare medical loss ratio (MLR) as a profitability gauge, Medicare Advantage enrollment growth and reimbursement rate changes, and Optum's ability to grow as a standalone health services business serving third-party clients. | Investors track the pace of Aetna integration and insurance margin recovery, Oak Street Health primary care expansion economics, Caremark PBM renewal retention rates, and whether CVS can reduce its heavy debt load while funding organic growth. |
- Optum health services segment provides diversified revenue beyond pure insurance
- Vertical integration across insurance and care delivery creates sustainable cost advantages
- Consistent double-digit EPS growth and strong free cash flow generation
- Caremark PBM is one of the three largest in the US with strong client retention
- Oak Street Health provides owned primary care exposure with Medicare Advantage alignment
- Retail pharmacy network provides massive consumer touchpoint density
- Medicare Advantage reimbursement rate cuts pressuring margins
- Medical cost inflation and elevated utilization impacting MLR
- Regulatory scrutiny of vertical integration and market concentration
- Heavy debt burden from Aetna, Signify, and Oak Street acquisitions
- Insurance segment margin pressure from elevated medical costs
- PBM model facing legislative and regulatory scrutiny over drug pricing transparency
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