MOH vs UNH Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Molina Healthcare and UnitedHealth both operate in managed care, but Molina is a focused specialist in government-sponsored Medicaid, Medicare, and marketplace health plans serving lower-income populations, while UnitedHealth is the largest, most diversified health insurance and healthcare services company, combining broad insurance offerings with Optum's healthcare services and pharmacy benefit operations.
Molina offers focused exposure to the structurally growing government-sponsored health insurance market, while UnitedHealth offers unmatched scale and diversification across insurance and healthcare services. Consider whether you prefer Molina's Medicaid specialization or UnitedHealth's broad diversification and scale advantages.
UNH holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MOH has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+41.37% vs +21.17%), though UNH has the better forward P/E setup (17.96x vs 20.53x for MOH). UNH leads on both revenue growth (-0.40%) and operating margin (5.82%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for UNH (+14.36%) than for MOH (+4.56%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want focused exposure to the structurally growing government-sponsored Medicaid insurance market
- Value Molina's specialized expertise navigating state government health plan contracts
- Are comfortable with revenue concentration risk tied to government program reimbursement rates
- Prefer a more capital-light, focused managed care model over a diversified healthcare conglomerate
- Want exposure to the largest, most diversified health insurance and healthcare services company in the US
- Value Optum's diversified revenue streams beyond traditional insurance underwriting
- Believe scale and negotiating leverage will help UnitedHealth manage medical cost trends over time
- Prefer broad diversification across commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid segments
| Metric | MOH | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 46.7 | 53.6 |
| AI ranki | #586 | #322 |
| Latest closei | $207.85 | $404.44 |
| 1M returni | +9.66% | +8.75% |
| 3M returni | +8.62% | -0.76% |
| 6M returni | +8.16% | +11.15% |
| 1Y returni | +41.37% | +21.17% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MOH | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.7K (+37.0%) started 2025-11-04 | $12.23K (+22.3%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $6.86K (-31.4%) started 2021-11-04 | $9.81K (-1.9%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $38.62K (+286.2%) started 2016-11-04 | $38.15K (+281.5%) started 2016-11-04 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MOH | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $10.44B | $375.28B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 1250.00 | 26.89 |
| Forward P/Ei | 20.53 | 17.96 |
| Price/Salesi | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| EV/Revenuei | 0.13 | 0.94 |
| Analyst targeti | $209.12 | $478.12 |
| Target upsidei | +4.56% | +14.36% |
| Metric | MOH | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | -5.70% | -0.40% |
| Earnings growthi | -75.30% | 75.90% |
| EPS growthi | -75.30% | +75.90% |
| FCF margini | +1.65% | +5.89% |
| Operating margini | 1.40% | 5.82% |
| Profit margini | -0.02% | 3.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | -0.16% | 15.77% |
| Return on equityi | -0.16% | 15.77% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 2.22% |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 57.56% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.75 | 0.61 |
| Debt/equityi | 94.77 | 70.43 |
| Current ratioi | 1.68 | 0.74 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.61 | 0.42 |
Over the past year, MOH and UNH have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.33), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MOH | UNH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +37.02% | +22.25% |
| CAGRi | +37.11% | +22.30% | |
| Volatilityi | 50.39% | 34.69% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.81 | 0.64 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.09 | 0.87 | |
| Max drawdowni | 39.25% | 27.29% | |
| Current drawdowni | 14.42% | 7.31% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 13.32% | 8.29% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.00% | 11.21% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.51% | 19.61% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.11% | 19.46% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -31.41% | -6.85% |
| CAGRi | -7.27% | -1.41% | |
| Volatilityi | 40.67% | 32.19% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.09 | -0.02 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.12 | -0.02 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.76% | 61.66% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.46% | 34.79% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 26.43% | 19.01% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.51% | 26.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.51% | 22.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.11% | 29.05% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +286.19% | +233.42% |
| CAGRi | +14.47% | +12.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 41.06% | 30.40% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.43 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.61 | 0.56 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.76% | 61.66% | |
| Current drawdowni | 50.46% | 34.79% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 17.65% | 12.10% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.05% | 19.35% | |
| Max daily dropi | 25.51% | 22.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.11% | 29.05% |
| Category | MOH | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Molina Healthcare, Inc. | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Healthcare Plans | Healthcare Plans |
| Core business | A managed care company focused primarily on providing government-sponsored health insurance, particularly Medicaid, along with Medicare and Affordable Care Act marketplace plans, serving lower-income populations. | The largest diversified health insurance and healthcare services company in the US, combining UnitedHealthcare's broad commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid insurance business with Optum's healthcare services, pharmacy benefit management, and data analytics operations. |
| Investor focus | Medicaid membership growth and state contract wins, medical loss ratio management, and Medicare and marketplace segment expansion. | Medical cost trend and loss ratio management, Optum healthcare services growth, and overall enrollment trends across commercial and government programs. |
- Focused specialization in Medicaid managed care provides deep expertise navigating state government contracts
- Government-sponsored insurance programs provide a large, structurally growing addressable market
- More capital-light model than integrated health giants, focused primarily on health plan administration
- Massive scale and diversification across commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid insurance combined with Optum's healthcare services
- Optum segment provides diversified revenue beyond traditional insurance underwriting, including pharmacy benefits and care delivery
- Strong negotiating leverage with providers and pharmaceutical companies due to its scale
- Revenue concentrated in government-sponsored programs creates policy and reimbursement rate risk tied to state and federal budgets
- Medical loss ratio management is highly sensitive to member health utilization trends, which can be volatile
- Smaller scale and less diversification than UnitedHealth's broader healthcare services portfolio
- Medical cost trend increases across the industry can pressure margins if pricing does not keep pace
- Regulatory and political scrutiny of the health insurance industry creates ongoing policy risk
- Scale and complexity across many business lines increase operational and integration complexity
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