MRK vs ABBV Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Merck and AbbVie are both large-cap pharma income investments with major franchise drugs facing patent cliffs at different points in time. AbbVie is already in the middle of its Humira LOE — and navigating it successfully with Skyrizi and Rinvoq. Merck's Keytruda cliff is still years away, giving Merck stronger near-term earnings growth. Both pay dividends and invest in pipeline diversification.
MRK vs ABBV compares the forward-looking Keytruda cliff risk (Merck, 2028) against the already-in-progress and being-managed Humira cliff (AbbVie) — AbbVie has demonstrated successful LOE navigation, while Merck is earlier in its post-LOE planning phase with Winrevair and ADCs as mitigation vehicles.
ABBV holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MRK leads on both 1-year return (+80.14%) and forward P/E quality (15.55x vs 15.79x for ABBV), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. ABBV leads on both revenue growth (10.20%) and operating margin (40.03%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ABBV (+7.85%) than for MRK (+0.26%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the Keytruda oncology franchise as the current global leader in cancer immunotherapy with peak revenue years ahead
- value Winrevair's PAH market opportunity and ADC pipeline as Keytruda cliff mitigation beyond 2028
- want dividend income from a pharma company with stronger near-term earnings growth than AbbVie while Keytruda peaks
- are comfortable with Keytruda IRA pricing negotiation and the 2028 US patent cliff as medium-term risks
- prefer AbbVie's demonstrated LOE management success — Skyrizi and Rinvoq are already replacing Humira revenue at high growth rates
- value the 3%+ dividend yield as among the highest sustainable yields in quality large-cap biopharma
- want exposure to immunology platform leadership with Botox aesthetics as consumer healthcare diversification
- are comfortable with Humira net revenue drag continuing near-term before Skyrizi/Rinvoq fully offset the erosion
| Metric | MRK | ABBV |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.4 | 53.2 |
| AI ranki | #455 | #353 |
| Latest closei | $146.87 | $263.96 |
| 1M returni | -3.50% | -0.76% |
| 6M returni | +28.61% | +27.99% |
| 1Y returni | +80.14% | +18.91% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | MRK | ABBV |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $18.01K (+80.1%) started 2025-09-18 | $11.89K (+18.9%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $25.27K (+152.7%) started 2021-09-20 | $33.47K (+234.7%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $43.39K (+333.9%) started 2016-09-19 | $95.09K (+850.9%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | MRK | ABBV |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $366B | $454.36B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 118.68 | 72.43 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.55 | 15.79 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.10 | 5.85 |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.20 | 8.06 |
| Analyst targeti | $148.73 | $277.31 |
| Target upsidei | +0.26% | +7.85% |
| Metric | MRK | ABBV |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 5.10% | 10.20% |
| Earnings growthi | -19.30% | 290.40% |
| EPS growthi | -19.30% | +290.40% |
| FCF margini | +22.79% | +26.20% |
| Operating margini | -0.24% | 40.03% |
| Profit margini | 4.77% | 9.80% |
| ROIC proxyi | 6.96% | 6225.00% |
| Return on equityi | 6.96% | 6225.00% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.29% | 2.69% |
| Payout ratioi | 268.80% | 190.40% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| Debt/equityi | 128.41 | 4789.60 |
| Current ratioi | 1.32 | 0.81 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.74 | 0.49 |
Over the past year, MRK and ABBV have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.46), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | MRK | ABBV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +80.14% | +18.91% |
| CAGRi | +80.21% | +18.92% | |
| Volatilityi | 30.47% | 26.43% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.94 | 0.62 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.66 | 0.94 | |
| Max drawdowni | 11.90% | 19.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.12% | 0.76% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.60% | 7.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.67% | 9.00% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.06% | 5.20% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.49% | 8.49% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +126.61% | +186.61% |
| CAGRi | +17.80% | +23.47% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.94% | 23.37% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 0.83 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.89 | 1.16 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.44% | 21.92% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.12% | 0.76% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.57% | 8.02% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 17.28% | 9.97% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.86% | 12.57% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.42% | 17.30% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +224.39% | +508.23% |
| CAGRi | +12.49% | +19.79% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.35% | 26.02% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.43 | 0.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.62 | 0.91 | |
| Max drawdowni | 43.44% | 45.09% | |
| Current drawdowni | 6.12% | 0.76% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.82% | 11.54% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.74% | 15.57% | |
| Max daily dropi | 9.86% | 16.25% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.71% | 19.39% |
| Category | MRK | ABBV |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Merck & Co., Inc. | AbbVie Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Merck's Keytruda is the world's most prescribed cancer immunotherapy, approved in 30+ cancer types and generating $25B+ annually. Gardasil HPV vaccine and Winrevair (PAH) supplement the oncology franchise. Keytruda loses US patent protection beginning around 2028, representing the primary medium-term challenge for Merck's earnings. The ADC pipeline (MK-2870) and Winrevair are key diversification vehicles. | AbbVie's Skyrizi (IL-23 inhibitor) and Rinvoq (JAK1 inhibitor) are collectively generating $15B+ and growing rapidly as they offset Humira biosimilar erosion. Botox (aesthetic and therapeutic) from the Allergan acquisition provides consumer healthcare diversification. AbbVie's 3%+ dividend yield is among the highest in large-cap biopharma. The Humira LOE is already well underway, and AbbVie has successfully navigated it — unlike Merck's forward-looking Keytruda cliff. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Keytruda global expansion, Gardasil China recovery, Winrevair launch, and the strategic path to filling the Keytruda 2028 revenue gap with new products or M&A. | Investors track Skyrizi and Rinvoq combined revenue growth, Humira net erosion pace, Botox aesthetic revenue, and total revenue stabilization as Humira erosion is offset by immunology growth. |
- Keytruda first-line approvals in NSCLC, melanoma, and bladder cancer make it the standard of care in the most common cancer types globally
- Winrevair's differentiated PAH mechanism provides a large new cardiovascular drug category independent of oncology
- Strong balance sheet and cash flow support both R&D investment and M&A to address the Keytruda cliff
- Skyrizi and Rinvoq immunology duo is growing at 50%+ annually from an already large base, successfully replacing Humira
- Allergan aesthetics business (Botox cosmetic) is recession-resilient and consumer-brand-driven, uncorrelated with typical pharma patent cliffs
- Dividend yield (3%+) is among the highest in quality large-cap biopharma, supported by immunology franchise cash flows
- Keytruda IRA drug price negotiation for US Medicare Part D reduces US pricing power from 2028 onward
- Gardasil China demand has been weak due to regulatory and reimbursement uncertainty
- Pipeline needs significant clinical successes before 2028 to sustainably bridge the Keytruda LOE impact
- Net revenue impact from Humira erosion is still being absorbed — total AbbVie revenue is growing but the Humira drag is significant
- Skyrizi and Rinvoq face long-term JAK and IL-23 biosimilar and next-generation competitor pressure after their own eventual LOEs
- Allergan aesthetics sensitivity to consumer discretionary spending cycles can create short-term revenue volatility
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