Data as of:
LIVE
CTRE
CareTrust REIT, Inc. · REITs
$37.54
-5.73% this month
VERSUS
COMPARE
WELL
Welltower Inc. · REITs
$228.87
-2.91% this month
Comparison scoreboard
CTRE LEADS 3/5AI Scorei
CTRE N/A
WELL 54.7
1Y Returni
CTRE +12.49%
WELL ✓+37.43%
Fwd P/Ei
CTRE ✓22.46
WELL 74.86
Target Up.i
CTRE ✓+14.42%
WELL +7.84%
Op. Margini
CTRE ✓57.79%
WELL 16.56%
Metrics last refreshed: 9/21/2026
Quick take
CTRE vs WELL Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
CTRE and WELL are both healthcare REITs but at very different scales and with different operator models. CareTrust is a small-cap NNN-lease REIT focused on skilled nursing with predictable rent income and acquisition-driven growth. Welltower is the largest healthcare REIT with SHOP operating income sharing in senior housing capturing the full upside of the senior demographic growth trend. Welltower has the stronger secular growth narrative; CareTrust offers simpler NNN predictability and higher dividend yield.
CTRE vs WELL — CareTrust REIT (the small-cap triple-net-lease skilled nursing REIT with predictable rent income and acquisition-driven growth through regional operator relationships) versus Welltower (the largest US healthcare REIT with senior housing operating portfolio income sharing capturing the full benefit of the senior demographic wave in high-barrier-to-entry urban markets).
Live analysis · updated 9/21/2026
CTRE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. WELL has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+37.43% vs +12.49%), though CTRE has the better forward P/E setup (22.46x vs 74.86x for WELL). On fundamentals, WELL is growing revenue faster (39.10%), while CTRE maintains the higher operating margin (57.79%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for CTRE (+14.42%) than for WELL (+7.84%).
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Normalized 1Y performance
CTRE
WELL
Recent returns
CTRE
WELL
Analyst price targets & sentiment
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
CTRE
Price target range
analyst mean$45.38
current price$37.54
+14.4% upside to analyst mean
WELL · 20 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.7/5.0)
17 Buy / 5 Hold / 0 Sell
Price target range
analyst low$145.00
analyst mean$256.73
current price$228.87
+7.8% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
CTRE may suit investors who:
- prefer NNN lease predictability — CareTrust's triple-net structure provides rent income with minimal operating exposure to SNF performance fluctuations
- value small-cap healthcare REIT growth through acquisitions at attractive cap rates using regional operator relationships that larger REITs don't pursue
- want higher dividend yield relative to NAV — CareTrust's smaller scale and NNN focus typically translates to higher current dividend yield vs growth-premium peers like Welltower
- are comfortable with skilled nursing operator credit risk, Medicaid reimbursement uncertainty, and small-cap illiquidity of a less widely covered REIT
WELL may suit investors who:
- believe senior housing is the highest-conviction secular REIT theme — US population 80+ growing 4%+ annually creates structural demand that doesn't require economic growth to generate NOI increases
- value SHOP operating leverage — Welltower's income sharing in senior housing captures the full upside of occupancy recovery and private-pay rate increases beyond fixed NNN rents
- prefer the largest, most liquid healthcare REIT with deep institutional ownership, analyst coverage, and global senior housing platform across US, UK, and Canada
- are comfortable with SHOP operating risk creating NOI volatility, labor cost inflation compressing margins, and premium valuation requiring sustained strong NOI growth
Performance & AI score
| Metric | CTRE | WELL |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | N/A | 54.7 |
| AI ranki | N/A | #287 |
| Latest closei | $37.54 | $228.87 |
| 1M returni | -5.73% | -2.91% |
| 6M returni | +6.13% | +11.05% |
| 1Y returni | +12.49% | +37.43% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | CTRE | WELL |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $11.7K (+17.0%) started 2025-09-18 | $13.74K (+37.4%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $29.29K (+192.9%) started 2021-09-20 | $32.81K (+228.1%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $80.77K (+707.7%) started 2016-09-19 | $64.82K (+548.2%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | CTRE | WELL |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $9.37B | $171.55B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 24.79 | 106.28 |
| Forward P/Ei | 22.46 | 74.86 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | 11.81 |
| EV/Revenuei | 17.62 | 14.93 |
| Analyst targeti | $45.38 | $256.73 |
| Target upsidei | +14.42% | +7.84% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | CTRE | WELL |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 3.20% | 39.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 5.00% | 35.60% |
| EPS growthi | +5.00% | +35.60% |
| FCF margini | -14.05% | +21.59% |
| Operating margini | 57.79% | 16.56% |
| Profit margini | 62.19% | 12.15% |
| ROIC proxyi | 9.06% | 3.84% |
| Return on equityi | 9.06% | 3.84% |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.91% | 1.43% |
| Payout ratioi | 90.63% | 132.74% |
| Dividend growth streaki | 6 yrs | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| Debt/equityi | 71.95 | 41.38 |
| Current ratioi | 3.30 | 1.32 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.95 | 0.95 |
Correlation
Over the past year, CTRE and WELL have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.67), based on daily returns.
1Y
0.67
-1.0+1.0
5Y
0.61
-1.0+1.0
10Y
0.73
-1.0+1.0
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
CTRE max drawdowni14.28%
WELL max drawdowni12.61%
CTRE max wkly dropi9.82%
WELL max wkly dropi10.44%
5Y risk snapshot
CTRE max drawdowni29.08%
WELL max drawdowni40.78%
CTRE max wkly dropi12.82%
WELL max wkly dropi13.27%
10Y risk snapshot
CTRE max drawdowni67.43%
WELL max drawdowni63.33%
CTRE max wkly dropi52.91%
WELL max wkly dropi41.19%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | CTRE | WELL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +12.49% | +37.43% |
| CAGRi | +12.50% | +37.46% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.23% | 22.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 1.32 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.59 | 1.93 | |
| Max drawdowni | 14.28% | 12.61% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.50% | 9.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 4.08% | 4.42% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 5.55% | 5.74% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.03% | 4.93% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.82% | 10.44% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +122.96% | +195.19% |
| CAGRi | +17.42% | +24.20% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.57% | 23.81% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.60 | 0.84 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.85 | 1.23 | |
| Max drawdowni | 29.08% | 40.78% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.50% | 9.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.40% | 8.40% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.20% | 12.51% | |
| Max daily dropi | 8.03% | 6.38% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.82% | 13.27% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +326.82% | +337.54% |
| CAGRi | +15.62% | +15.91% | |
| Volatilityi | 35.34% | 31.96% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.46 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.69 | 0.69 | |
| Max drawdowni | 67.43% | 63.33% | |
| Current drawdowni | 13.50% | 9.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.23% | 11.62% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 12.88% | 16.70% | |
| Max daily dropi | 30.66% | 24.40% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 52.91% | 41.19% |
Business comparison
| Category | CTRE | WELL |
|---|---|---|
| Company | CareTrust REIT, Inc. | Welltower Inc. |
| Sector | Real Estate | Real Estate |
| Industry | REIT - Healthcare Facilities | REIT - Healthcare Facilities |
| Core business | CareTrust REIT is a healthcare REIT specializing in skilled nursing facilities (SNFs), senior housing, and other post-acute care properties. CareTrust was spun off from Ensign Group in 2014. The company primarily owns triple-net lease properties where operators pay all operating expenses including taxes, insurance, and maintenance — providing predictable rent income with limited operating volatility for CareTrust. CareTrust's strategy focuses on relationship-based underwriting with smaller regional operators, enabling it to grow through acquisitions and new development in the post-acute care property sector. | Welltower is the largest US healthcare REIT with $70B+ in assets owning senior housing communities, post-acute care, and outpatient medical facilities. Welltower's senior housing operating portfolio (SHOP) — where Welltower shares in operating income rather than receiving fixed rent — is the primary growth driver. SHOP properties benefit directly from senior housing occupancy recovery and rising private-pay rates. Welltower's senior demographic tailwind (US population 80+ growing rapidly) and private-pay premium pricing create a multi-decade secular growth story. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on CareTrust's rent coverage ratios (operator financial health), acquisition pipeline, dividend coverage from AFFO, and growth in skilled nursing reimbursement rates from Medicare and Medicaid. | Investors focus on Welltower's SHOP same-store NOI growth, senior housing occupancy recovery trajectory, private-pay rate increases, and development pipeline pre-leasing in high-barrier-to-entry markets. |
CTRE strengths
- Triple-net lease structure: CareTrust's NNN leases mean operators pay all property expenses — CareTrust collects pure rental income with minimal operating exposure to SNF performance fluctuations
- Small-cap acquisition growth: CareTrust can deploy capital into acquisitions at attractive cap rates — smaller operator relationships and regional expertise enable deal flow larger healthcare REITs overlook
- SNF reimbursement tailwind: Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rate increases benefit CareTrust's operators improving rent coverage ratios and reducing CareTrust's credit risk on its tenant base
WELL strengths
- Senior housing demographic tailwind: US population 80+ is growing at 4%+ annually through 2030+ — the primary demand driver for senior housing is structural demographic, not cyclical
- SHOP operating leverage: Welltower's senior housing operating portfolio earns operating income sharing — when occupancy recovers and private-pay rates rise, Welltower's NOI grows faster than under fixed-rent NNN leases
- High-barrier-to-entry urban markets: Welltower's senior housing properties in coastal metropolitan markets have limited new supply — zoning, construction costs, and labor constrain new senior housing development in these markets
Risks to watch — CTRE
- Operator concentration and credit risk: smaller regional SNF operators carry more credit risk than senior housing operators at large healthcare REITs — operator financial distress creates collection risk for CareTrust
- Medicaid reimbursement uncertainty: state Medicaid programs are primary payers for SNF care — budget pressures can reduce reimbursement rates, squeezing operator margins and rent coverage
- Small-cap illiquidity and less analyst coverage: CareTrust is a smaller REIT with less institutional ownership and analyst coverage than Welltower — less market liquidity creates wider bid-ask spreads
Risks to watch — WELL
- SHOP operating risk vs NNN: Welltower takes on operating risk in SHOP properties — occupancy declines, labor cost spikes, or operator performance issues directly impact Welltower's NOI rather than being insulated by NNN structure
- Labor cost inflation in senior care: nursing home and assisted living labor costs have risen sharply — wage inflation compresses SHOP operating margins and partially offsets private-pay rate increases
- Premium valuation on earnings growth expectations: Welltower trades at a significant premium to healthcare REIT peers — the valuation requires continued strong SHOP NOI growth execution to justify
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