ILMN vs PACB Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ILMN and PACB are sequencing technology companies at very different scales and stages. Illumina is the 80%+ market share incumbent in short-read sequencing with massive recurring consumable revenues — fighting to maintain dominance against BGI competition and manage post-GRAIL recovery. PacBio is a long-read technology specialist with a genuinely differentiated approach for complex genomic applications — but pre-profitability, reliant on Revio adoption, and facing the scale challenge of competing against Illumina's massive installed base. Very different risk profiles.
ILMN vs PACB — Illumina (dominant short-read sequencing incumbent with 80%+ market share and $1B+ recurring consumable revenues, recovering from GRAIL distraction) versus PacBio (long-read sequencing technology specialist with HiFi accuracy differentiation and Revio commercialization, seeking profitability through clinical market penetration).
ILMN holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ILMN leads on both 1-year return (+98.52%) and forward P/E quality (35.36x vs -3.26x for PACB), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. ILMN leads on both revenue growth (9.40%) and operating margin (21.14%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for PACB (+73.61%) than for ILMN (-7.74%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- want exposure to genomics market growth through the established market leader with 80%+ share, massive installed base, and high-margin consumable recurring revenues
- believe the GRAIL distraction is behind Illumina and management is refocused on core sequencing business and NovaSeq X adoption cycle
- are comfortable with a large-cap life science tools leader at premium valuation with Chinese competition and long-read displacement risk priced in
- value Illumina's proven clinical market penetration in oncology, rare disease, and prenatal testing as durable revenue diversification beyond research
- believe long-read sequencing will expand to clinical mainstream adoption where short reads are technically insufficient — structural variant detection, complete genome assembly
- are high-risk-tolerance investors comfortable with pre-profitability biotech/instruments companies burning cash to commercialize differentiated technology
- see the Revio platform's dramatically lower long-read cost as the catalyst unlocking clinical market adoption at scale beyond the current research niche
- want a 'picks and shovels' technology bet on the applications where PacBio's HiFi technology is the only viable solution — complex genomics applications with no Illumina substitute
| Metric | ILMN | PACB |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 42.9 | 25.1 |
| AI ranki | #1140 | #3104 |
| Latest closei | $238.21 | $2.35 |
| 1M returni | -12.76% | -7.48% |
| 3M returni | +17.34% | +65.49% |
| 6M returni | +71.29% | +51.61% |
| 1Y returni | +98.52% | +0.43% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ILMN | PACB |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $20.38K (+103.8%) started 2025-11-04 | $10.49K (+4.9%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $5.81K (-41.9%) started 2021-11-04 | $796.61 (-92.0%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $18.19K (+81.9%) started 2016-11-04 | $3.53K (-64.7%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ILMN | PACB |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $32.55B | $410.3M |
| Trailing P/Ei | 40.15 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 35.36 | -3.26 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.02 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.55 | 5.46 |
| Analyst targeti | $198.89 | $2.29 |
| Target upsidei | -7.74% | +73.61% |
| Metric | ILMN | PACB |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.40% | -1.90% |
| Earnings growthi | -9.40% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -9.40% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +17.75% | +183.11% |
| Operating margini | 21.14% | -114.36% |
| Profit margini | 18.34% | -82.49% |
| ROIC proxyi | 32.34% | -929.32% |
| Return on equityi | 32.34% | -929.32% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.46 | 2.32 |
| Debt/equityi | 89.04 | N/A |
| Current ratioi | 1.80 | 4.92 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.25 | 3.90 |
Over the past year, ILMN and PACB have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.44), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ILMN | PACB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +103.84% | +4.91% |
| CAGRi | +104.15% | +4.93% | |
| Volatilityi | 46.88% | 93.83% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.69 | 0.46 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.49 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.66% | 58.43% | |
| Current drawdowni | 18.89% | 18.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.26% | 35.98% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.39% | 39.21% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.88% | 15.44% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.33% | 27.43% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -41.95% | -92.03% |
| CAGRi | -10.31% | -39.73% | |
| Volatilityi | 47.77% | 97.61% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.09 | -0.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.13 | -0.11 | |
| Max drawdowni | 82.95% | 96.97% | |
| Current drawdowni | 42.22% | 92.19% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 58.48% | 81.45% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 61.18% | 83.28% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.88% | 50.70% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.76% | 61.22% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +81.89% | -64.66% |
| CAGRi | +6.17% | -9.88% | |
| Volatilityi | 42.52% | 86.52% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.25 | 0.26 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.36 | 0.39 | |
| Max drawdowni | 86.23% | 98.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 53.34% | 95.41% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 38.58% | 64.15% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 49.06% | 70.63% | |
| Max daily dropi | 17.88% | 50.70% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.76% | 61.22% |
| Category | ILMN | PACB |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Illumina Inc. | Pacific Biosciences of California Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Diagnostics & Research | Medical Devices |
| Core business | Illumina dominates the short-read DNA sequencing market with 80%+ global market share — the instruments, reagents, and consumables that power essentially all large-scale genomic sequencing globally. Illumina's technology (sequencing by synthesis) reads millions of short DNA fragments simultaneously — optimal for large-scale studies, clinical diagnostic sequencing, and oncology genomics. Illumina's challenge includes integrating and then divesting GRAIL (cancer early detection liquid biopsy company) after a costly regulatory battle, and defending against Chinese competitor BGI's MGI subsidiary gaining market share globally. | PacBio makes long-read DNA sequencing instruments (Revio, Sequel II) capable of reading DNA fragments 10-100x longer than Illumina's short reads. Long-read sequencing is superior for complete genome assembly, detecting structural variants (large DNA rearrangements), resolving complex genomic regions, and sequencing repetitive DNA elements. PacBio's HiFi long-read technology achieves high accuracy (99.9%+) while maintaining long read lengths — addressing the historical accuracy disadvantage of long-read vs short-read sequencing. PacBio targets clinical genome sequencing, structural variant detection for rare disease, and de novo genome assembly. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on Illumina's instrument upgrade cycle (NovaSeq X adoption), consumable revenue per instrument (high-margin recurring revenue), clinical market expansion (oncology, rare disease), and potential long-read competition from PacBio and Oxford Nanopore. | Investors focus on PacBio's Revio system adoption (dramatically cheaper long-read sequencing), clinical market validation (rare disease diagnosis, oncology), and path to profitability amid high R&D spending. |
- 80%+ global sequencing market share: Illumina's installed base of instruments creates an enormous consumable recurring revenue flywheel — reagent kits representing 70%+ of revenue
- Lowest cost per genome for large studies: Illumina's short-read technology produces the cheapest data for population-scale genomics — research, drug development, and clinical sequencing at scale
- Clinical sequencing adoption growth: oncology genomics, prenatal testing, rare disease diagnosis — Illumina's technology is enabling precision medicine at population scale
- Only commercial long-read platform with high accuracy (HiFi): PacBio's Continuous Long Read (CLR) technology with circular consensus sequencing achieves short-read-like accuracy with long-read length — a technical differentiation Illumina cannot match
- Revio launched at dramatically lower long-read cost: the Revio instrument makes long-read sequencing affordable enough for clinical adoption — expanding the addressable market for PacBio's technology
- Superior for structural variant detection and complex genomes: applications where short reads fail completely — PacBio owns these use cases as the only viable technology
- GRAIL acquisition saga cost billions and destroyed focus: Illumina spent $8B acquiring GRAIL against FTC/EC objections, lost the regulatory fight, and was forced to divest — a costly strategic distraction destroying shareholder value
- Long-read competition emerging: PacBio's HiFi long-read technology addresses applications where short reads fail — structural variants, complex genomic regions, genome assembly — and is gaining clinical traction
- Chinese competition from BGI/MGI: BGI's MGI subsidiary offers lower-cost sequencing instruments competing for market share in price-sensitive international markets
- Not profitable: PacBio continues burning cash despite commercialization — achieving profitability requires significant Revio adoption acceleration
- Small market share: PacBio instruments represent a tiny fraction of Illumina's installed base — limited recurring consumable revenue makes the business difficult to fund at current scale
- Oxford Nanopore competition: ONT provides another long-read alternative (nanopore sequencing) competing for the same long-read use cases — PacBio faces competition in its differentiated niche
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