GILD vs MRK Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
MRK is currently the stronger revenue growth story powered by the world's best-selling cancer drug (Keytruda), while GILD offers a more stable, dividend-paying profile anchored by its HIV cash cow with a growing oncology portfolio. Both face significant revenue transitions — MRK's Keytruda patent cliff and GILD's long-term HIV franchise management.
GILD vs MRK compares two large-cap pharmaceutical income and growth investments: Gilead's stable HIV cash flow and dividend versus Merck's Keytruda oncology juggernaut approaching a major patent cliff.
GILD holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MRK has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+75.38% vs +37.21%), though GILD has the better forward P/E setup (14.73x vs 15.55x for MRK). GILD leads on both revenue growth (10.20%) and operating margin (33.68%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for GILD (+8.05%) than for MRK (+0.26%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want large-cap biotech exposure with a meaningful dividend yield
- Value the stability of Gilead's HIV franchise as a cash generation engine
- See upside in Trodelvy and Yescarta expanding the oncology portfolio
- Want exposure to the world's best-selling cancer drug and its continued indication expansion
- Are comfortable with Keytruda concentration risk in exchange for near-term revenue growth
- Believe Merck's pipeline and business development will successfully bridge the 2028 Keytruda patent cliff
| Metric | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 53.9 | 52.5 |
| AI ranki | #507 | #395 |
| Latest closei | $167.47 | $144.67 |
| 1M returni | +15.70% | +0.26% |
| 3M returni | +23.82% | +13.02% |
| 6M returni | +25.46% | +27.86% |
| 1Y returni | +37.21% | +75.38% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.62K (+36.2%) started 2025-11-04 | $17.25K (+72.5%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $33.6K (+236.0%) started 2021-11-04 | $19.77K (+97.7%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $45.84K (+358.4%) started 2016-11-04 | $44.56K (+345.6%) started 2016-11-04 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $180.64B | $366B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.74 | 118.68 |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.73 | 15.55 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.87 | 3.10 |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.63 | 6.20 |
| Analyst targeti | $157.41 | $148.73 |
| Target upsidei | +8.05% | +0.26% |
| Metric | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.20% | 5.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 54.80% | -19.30% |
| EPS growthi | +54.80% | -19.30% |
| FCF margini | +32.07% | +22.79% |
| Operating margini | 33.68% | -0.24% |
| Profit margini | -10.64% | 4.77% |
| ROIC proxyi | -20.68% | 6.96% |
| Return on equityi | -20.68% | 6.96% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.20% | 2.29% |
| Payout ratioi | 43.46% | 266.67% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.34 | 0.21 |
| Debt/equityi | 223.47 | 128.41 |
| Current ratioi | 1.26 | 1.32 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.90 | 0.74 |
Over the past year, GILD and MRK have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.44), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +36.15% | +72.51% |
| CAGRi | +36.24% | +72.71% | |
| Volatilityi | 27.10% | 29.91% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.13 | 1.85 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.81 | 3.32 | |
| Max drawdowni | 22.03% | 11.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 7.53% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.23% | 3.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.34% | 5.09% | |
| Max daily dropi | 3.72% | 3.88% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 5.98% | 6.49% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +189.71% | +77.34% |
| CAGRi | +23.71% | +12.14% | |
| Volatilityi | 24.95% | 24.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.80 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.25 | 0.59 | |
| Max drawdowni | 26.59% | 43.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 7.53% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.88% | 12.72% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 10.93% | 17.33% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.15% | 9.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.78% | 13.42% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +216.92% | +233.16% |
| CAGRi | +12.23% | +12.79% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.67% | 23.47% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.40 | 0.44 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.61 | 0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 30.47% | 43.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.00% | 7.53% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 12.91% | 9.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.94% | 13.76% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.15% | 9.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 12.29% | 13.71% |
| Category | GILD | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | Merck & Co., Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | Gilead Sciences is a large-cap biotechnology company with a dominant HIV antiretroviral franchise (Biktarvy), oncology portfolio (Trodelvy, Yescarta CAR-T), and significant antiviral history including hepatitis C treatments, paying a meaningful dividend. | Merck is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, with Keytruda (pembrolizumab) — the world's best-selling cancer immunotherapy — as its dominant franchise, alongside vaccines (Gardasil), HIV antiretrovirals (Islatravir), and other therapeutic areas. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Biktarvy's HIV revenue durability, Trodelvy's expansion in breast cancer, Yescarta's CAR-T performance, and Gilead's business development pipeline to supplement internal R&D. | Investors track Keytruda's sustained revenue growth across its expanding cancer indications, pipeline diversification to reduce Keytruda concentration risk, and the Keytruda patent cliff beginning in 2028. |
- Biktarvy is the leading HIV treatment with a large, stable recurring patient base providing durable cash generation
- Meaningful dividend yield provides income alongside growth from the oncology portfolio
- Oncology diversification through Trodelvy and Yescarta reduces single-franchise dependency
- Keytruda is the best-selling cancer drug globally, with approvals across dozens of cancer types and ongoing label expansion trials
- Diverse pipeline including vaccines, cardiometabolic, and infectious disease complements the core Keytruda franchise
- Strong manufacturing and global commercial infrastructure
- HIV franchise faces eventual competition from long-acting injectables and generics over a longer horizon
- Trodelvy and Yescarta are still building their commercial scale versus Gilead's HIV franchise size
- Acquisition track record has been mixed, with some deals (Immunomedics) under ongoing scrutiny
- Keytruda's U.S. composition-of-matter patents begin expiring in 2028, creating a significant revenue cliff from biosimilar competition
- Heavy revenue concentration in Keytruda makes patent cliff risk particularly acute
- Merck is under significant pipeline and BD pressure to fill the expected Keytruda revenue gap post-2028
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