JNJ vs MRK Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Johnson & Johnson and Merck are both major global healthcare companies, but Johnson & Johnson diversifies across pharmaceuticals and medical devices, while Merck concentrates more heavily on pharmaceuticals, particularly its leading oncology immunotherapy franchise, alongside a vaccine portfolio.
Johnson & Johnson offers exposure to a diversified healthcare business spanning pharmaceuticals and medical devices with a long dividend growth history, while Merck offers a more concentrated bet on its oncology franchise and pharmaceutical pipeline. Consider whether you prefer Johnson & Johnson's diversification or Merck's oncology-focused growth profile.
MRK holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. MRK leads on both 1-year return (+65.81%) and forward P/E quality (15.55x vs 21.78x for JNJ), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. JNJ leads on both revenue growth (6.60%) and operating margin (29.19%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies similar upside for both: +1.66% for JNJ and +0.26% for MRK.
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want diversified exposure to both pharmaceuticals and medical devices
- Value a long-standing history as a dividend aristocrat with reliable income growth
- Believe diversification across multiple therapeutic areas reduces single-product concentration risk
- Prefer a more stable, diversified healthcare business over a concentrated pharmaceutical bet
- Want concentrated exposure to a leading oncology immunotherapy franchise
- Believe strong research and development capabilities can sustain pipeline innovation
- Value diversification from an established vaccine portfolio alongside oncology
- Are comfortable with revenue concentration risk tied to key product patent life
| Metric | JNJ | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 49.9 | 51.9 |
| AI ranki | #339 | #378 |
| Latest closei | $263.81 | $145.27 |
| 1M returni | -1.99% | -1.90% |
| 3M returni | +0.16% | +10.83% |
| 6M returni | +15.96% | +29.82% |
| 1Y returni | +36.73% | +65.81% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | JNJ | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.71K (+37.1%) started 2025-10-23 | $16.66K (+66.6%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $19.79K (+97.9%) started 2021-10-25 | $22.01K (+120.1%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $38.13K (+281.3%) started 2016-10-24 | $43.33K (+333.3%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | JNJ | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $645.95B | $366B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 31.06 | 118.68 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.78 | 15.55 |
| Price/Salesi | 4.18 | 3.10 |
| EV/Revenuei | 6.88 | 6.20 |
| Analyst targeti | $272.50 | $148.73 |
| Target upsidei | +1.66% | +0.26% |
| Metric | JNJ | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 6.60% | 5.10% |
| Earnings growthi | -0.90% | -19.30% |
| EPS growthi | -0.90% | -19.30% |
| FCF margini | +17.24% | +22.79% |
| Operating margini | 29.19% | -0.24% |
| Profit margini | 21.48% | 4.77% |
| ROIC proxyi | 25.74% | 6.96% |
| Return on equityi | 25.74% | 6.96% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.00% | 2.29% |
| Payout ratioi | 80.12% | 266.67% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| Debt/equityi | 57.71 | 128.41 |
| Current ratioi | 1.09 | 1.32 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.72 | 0.74 |
Over the past year, JNJ and MRK have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.49), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | JNJ | MRK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +37.07% | +66.63% |
| CAGRi | +37.13% | +66.75% | |
| Volatilityi | 20.73% | 29.66% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.41 | 1.72 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.14 | 3.05 | |
| Max drawdowni | 10.96% | 11.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.25% | 7.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 3.52% | 3.84% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 4.61% | 4.95% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.73% | 4.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 6.99% | 6.49% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +77.96% | +97.43% |
| CAGRi | +12.23% | +14.59% | |
| Volatilityi | 17.96% | 24.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.48 | 0.49 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.71 | 0.72 | |
| Max drawdowni | 18.41% | 43.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.25% | 7.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.10% | 12.66% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.62% | 17.31% | |
| Max daily dropi | 7.59% | 9.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 9.18% | 13.42% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +193.36% | +223.92% |
| CAGRi | +11.37% | +12.48% | |
| Volatilityi | 18.99% | 23.45% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.43 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.60 | 0.62 | |
| Max drawdowni | 27.37% | 43.44% | |
| Current drawdowni | 5.25% | 7.15% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.44% | 9.85% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 7.99% | 13.75% | |
| Max daily dropi | 10.04% | 9.86% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 13.25% | 13.71% |
| Category | JNJ | MRK |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Johnson & Johnson | Merck & Co., Inc. |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | A diversified global healthcare company operating pharmaceutical and medical device segments, developing treatments across immunology, oncology, and neuroscience while manufacturing a broad range of medical devices used in surgery and other procedures. | A global pharmaceutical company with a significant oncology franchise centered on its immunotherapy portfolio, alongside vaccines and animal health products, focused heavily on research and development of innovative prescription medicines. |
| Investor focus | Pharmaceutical pipeline progress across key therapeutic areas, medical device segment growth, and dividend growth track record as a long-standing dividend aristocrat. | Oncology franchise revenue growth and patent life, vaccine portfolio performance, and pipeline progress to diversify beyond its largest current products. |
- Diversified business spanning pharmaceuticals and medical devices reduces dependence on any single product category or therapeutic area
- Long-standing history as a dividend aristocrat provides a reliable and growing income stream for shareholders
- Broad pipeline across immunology, oncology, and neuroscience supports multiple avenues for future growth
- Leading oncology immunotherapy franchise generates substantial revenue and cash flow to fund ongoing research and development
- Established vaccine portfolio provides diversification beyond its core oncology business
- Strong research and development capabilities support a robust pipeline of potential future therapies across multiple disease areas
- Faces ongoing patent expirations across its pharmaceutical portfolio that require pipeline replenishment to offset revenue loss
- Medical device segment growth is tied to elective procedure volumes, which can be sensitive to broader healthcare spending trends
- Legal and litigation matters have historically created periodic overhangs on investor sentiment
- Significant revenue concentration in its leading oncology franchise creates exposure to eventual patent expiration
- Pipeline diversification efforts must succeed to offset revenue pressure as key products face future competition
- Pharmaceutical companies face ongoing regulatory and pricing pressure risk across major markets
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