ABBV vs LLY Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AbbVie and Eli Lilly are both large pharmaceutical companies with strong drug franchises, but with opposite investment profiles. AbbVie is the income-focused pharma dividend aristocrat managing the Humira transition to Skyrizi and Rinvoq — slower growth, reliable dividends. Eli Lilly is the highest-growth large pharma in decades, powered by tirzepatide's GLP-1 obesity dominance — minimal dividend, maximum growth multiple. They serve different investor needs.
ABBV vs LLY is the premier pharma dividend aristocrat managing Humira's biosimilar erosion with Skyrizi/Rinvoq as succession drugs and Botox aesthetics adding consumer healthcare (AbbVie) versus the highest-growth large pharma in history with tirzepatide GLP-1 treating obesity as the largest drug market ever created (Eli Lilly) — income compounding through immunology franchise vs GLP-1 blockbuster growth multiple.
LLY holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LLY has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+63.52% vs +32.47%), though ABBV has the better forward P/E setup (15.79x vs 24.87x for LLY). LLY leads on both revenue growth (47.70%) and operating margin (54.22%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for LLY (+11.96%) than for ABBV (+7.85%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the premier pharma dividend aristocrat with 50+ consecutive dividend increases and Skyrizi/Rinvoq successfully replacing Humira revenue post-biosimilar erosion
- value AbbVie's diversified revenue across immunology (Skyrizi/Rinvoq), oncology (Imbruvica), and aesthetics (Botox) reducing single-drug pipeline dependence
- want reliable pharmaceutical income from a company with demonstrated ability to manage major drug patent losses while maintaining dividend growth
- are comfortable with Humira biosimilar ongoing revenue erosion, Rinvoq JAK inhibitor prescribing limitations, and need for continued pipeline development beyond current portfolio
- prefer the highest-growth large pharmaceutical company in decades as tirzepatide addresses obesity — a 650M-person global opportunity that dwarfs any prior drug market
- value Eli Lilly's tirzepatide clinical differentiation (dual GIP/GLP-1, superior weight loss) creating sustainable market share vs Novo Nordisk's semaglutide
- want transformational pharmaceutical growth multiple justified by GLP-1 market penetration potential as the obesity treatment market matures over the next decade
- are comfortable with Lilly's premium valuation reflecting GLP-1 expectations, manufacturing capacity constraints, oral GLP-1 competition risk, and minimal current dividend yield
| Metric | ABBV | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 63.0 | 79.7 |
| AI ranki | #178 | #27 |
| Latest closei | $288.84 | $1,410.99 |
| 1M returni | +9.90% | +23.46% |
| 3M returni | +17.85% | +25.83% |
| 6M returni | +38.76% | +45.77% |
| 1Y returni | +32.47% | +63.52% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ABBV | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.63K (+36.3%) started 2025-11-03 | $15.74K (+57.4%) started 2025-11-03 |
| 5Y ago | $32.31K (+223.1%) started 2021-11-03 | $57.08K (+470.8%) started 2021-11-03 |
| 10Y ago | $114.52K (+1045.2%) started 2016-11-03 | $266.02K (+2560.2%) started 2016-11-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ABBV | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $454.36B | $1.05T |
| Trailing P/Ei | 72.43 | 39.36 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.79 | 24.87 |
| Price/Salesi | 5.85 | 14.10 |
| EV/Revenuei | 8.06 | 13.72 |
| Analyst targeti | $277.31 | $1,315.04 |
| Target upsidei | +7.85% | +11.96% |
| Metric | ABBV | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 10.20% | 47.70% |
| Earnings growthi | 290.40% | 26.20% |
| EPS growthi | +290.40% | +26.20% |
| FCF margini | +26.20% | +13.89% |
| Operating margini | 40.03% | 54.22% |
| Profit margini | 9.80% | 33.53% |
| ROIC proxyi | 6225.00% | 102.29% |
| Return on equityi | 6225.00% | 102.29% |
| Dividend yieldi | 2.69% | 0.59% |
| Payout ratioi | 190.40% | 21.71% |
| Dividend growth streaki | No increase yet | No increase yet |
| Betai | 0.28 | 0.51 |
| Debt/equityi | 4789.60 | 162.07 |
| Current ratioi | 0.81 | 1.35 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.49 | 0.68 |
Over the past year, ABBV and LLY have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.42), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ABBV | LLY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +36.27% | +57.38% |
| CAGRi | +36.40% | +57.60% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.33% | 35.32% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.19 | 1.35 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.85 | 2.27 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.46% | 23.31% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.67% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.02% | 6.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.59% | 8.86% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.20% | 7.79% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 8.49% | 8.60% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +180.43% | +449.85% |
| CAGRi | +22.91% | +40.63% | |
| Volatilityi | 23.38% | 32.91% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.81 | 1.07 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.13 | 1.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 21.92% | 34.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.67% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 8.03% | 7.53% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.98% | 10.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.57% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 17.30% | 17.93% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +642.31% | +2168.91% |
| CAGRi | +22.20% | +36.65% | |
| Volatilityi | 25.95% | 30.71% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.73 | 1.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.03 | 1.60 | |
| Max drawdowni | 45.09% | 34.48% | |
| Current drawdowni | 0.67% | 0.00% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.46% | 6.84% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 15.55% | 9.24% | |
| Max daily dropi | 16.25% | 14.14% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.39% | 17.93% |
| Category | ABBV | LLY |
|---|---|---|
| Company | AbbVie Inc. | Eli Lilly and Company |
| Sector | Healthcare | Healthcare |
| Industry | Drug Manufacturers - General | Drug Manufacturers - General |
| Core business | AbbVie is a biopharmaceutical company known for Humira (adalimumab — the world's best-selling drug for most of its history) for autoimmune diseases, and increasingly for its post-Humira portfolio: Skyrizi (IL-23 inhibitor for psoriasis/IBD) and Rinvoq (JAK inhibitor for RA, atopic dermatitis, and more). AbbVie also has Imbruvica (BTK inhibitor for blood cancers) and botox/aesthetics via Allergan. AbbVie is known as a premier dividend growth company having extended J&J's Dividend Aristocrat streak. | Eli Lilly is a pharmaceutical company experiencing extraordinary growth from its GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs for obesity (Zepbound/tirzepatide) and diabetes (Mounjaro/tirzepatide). Tirzepatide targets both GIP and GLP-1 receptors, producing superior weight loss vs semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic). Lilly also has Verzenio (breast cancer), Talvey (multiple myeloma), and a robust Alzheimer's pipeline including donanemab (Kisunla). Lilly is executing a massive manufacturing capacity expansion to meet GLP-1 demand. |
| Investor focus | Investors track Skyrizi and Rinvoq revenue growth as Humira replacements, Humira biosimilar erosion rate, Allergan aesthetics (Botox) performance, and AbbVie's dividend growth track record. | Investors track Mounjaro/Zepbound quarterly revenue and supply availability, GLP-1 market share vs Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, and manufacturing capacity expansion timeline. |
- Skyrizi and Rinvoq are on track to collectively exceed Humira peak revenues — AbbVie's post-Humira portfolio transition appears more successful than many expected
- Allergan acquisition added Botox aesthetics as a resilient premium consumer healthcare business with pricing power and global brand recognition
- Exceptional dividend growth history — AbbVie has raised its dividend for 50+ consecutive years (including Abbott Labs years), one of the strongest dividend track records in pharma
- Tirzepatide's dual GIP/GLP-1 mechanism produces superior weight loss (~21% body weight) vs semaglutide (~15%) — clinical differentiation in the largest drug market opportunity in history
- Obesity as a disease affects 650M+ people globally — even a small market penetration creates extraordinary revenue scale for Lilly's Zepbound
- Verzenio CDK4/6 inhibitor growing strongly in breast cancer, Kisunla Alzheimer's approval provides additional non-obesity growth vectors
- Humira biosimilar erosion is ongoing — multiple biosimilars are taking US market share, reducing Humira revenue that once drove 50%+ of AbbVie's total revenue
- Rinvoq's JAK inhibitor class has FDA black box warning requirements that limit prescribing vs biologics — competing with Dupixent and other biologics
- AbbVie's pipeline beyond Skyrizi/Rinvoq is less visible — investors need to see new pipeline assets to gain confidence in post-Skyrizi/Rinvoq long-term growth
- Lilly's valuation reflects enormous GLP-1 expectations — manufacturing capacity constraints and competition from Novo Nordisk and new entrants (oral GLP-1s, amgen, etc.) could disappoint
- Manufacturing scale-up for tirzepatide is a multi-year constraint — supply shortages limit revenue relative to demand
- Oral GLP-1 competition (semaglutide oral, orforglipron) could disrupt injectable GLP-1 demand if oral efficacy approaches injectable performance
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