XLU vs NEE Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
XLU and NEE are related investments — NextEra Energy is XLU's largest holding at 15%+ of the ETF. The comparison is between owning the entire US utility sector diversified across 30+ utilities versus owning NextEra Energy specifically as the industry's growth leader. NEE offers faster earnings growth from its renewable energy business; XLU offers broader diversification across all utility types.
XLU vs NEE is diversified utility sector income across all regulated utilities (XLU) versus concentrated renewable energy growth and Florida utility exposure in the world's largest renewable producer (NextEra Energy) — NEE's renewable growth premium vs XLU's diversification benefits for yield-focused utility investors.
NEE holds the edge across 2 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. NEE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+3.12% vs +0.19% for XLU).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer diversified utility sector exposure across 30+ regulated electric, gas, and multi-utilities in the S&P 500
- value spreading utility risk across Southern Company, Duke Energy, Dominion, AEP, and others beyond NextEra concentration
- want utility sector income in falling interest rate environments or recession protection from essential electricity services
- are comfortable with interest rate sensitivity that reduces utility sector valuations when Treasury yields rise
- prefer the world's leading renewable energy company with wind, solar, and battery storage as a long-duration growth driver
- value Florida Power & Light's regulated earnings base in one of the fastest-growing US state power markets
- want utility-sector income with above-average earnings growth from renewable energy project additions
- are comfortable with utility-sector interest rate sensitivity and the related NextEra Energy Partners complexity affecting sentiment
| Metric | XLU | NEE |
|---|---|---|
| ETF scorei | 24.7 | 51.5 |
| Latest closei | $43.42 | $84.33 |
| 1M returni | +9.01% | +9.76% |
| 3M returni | -0.84% | -3.29% |
| 6M returni | -5.07% | -12.41% |
| 1Y returni | +0.19% | +3.12% |
The ETF score weights long-term returns and risk-adjusted performance most heavily, but still rewards low expense ratios, larger fund size, and broader diversification — so it can favor low-cost, broad, mega-cap funds over smaller thematic or actively-managed funds even when the latter have delivered stronger returns.
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | XLU | NEE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $10.31K (+3.1%) started 2025-11-03 | $10.32K (+3.2%) started 2025-11-04 |
| 5Y ago | $17.8K (+78.0%) started 2021-11-04 | $11.96K (+19.6%) started 2021-11-04 |
| 10Y ago | $35.87K (+258.7%) started 2016-11-04 | $42.78K (+327.8%) started 2016-11-04 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | XLU | NEE |
|---|---|---|
| Expense ratioi | 0.08% | N/A |
| Total assets (AUM)i | $21.33B | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.07% | 3.05% |
| Trailing P/Ei | 19.66 | 18.39 |
| Betai | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| 52-week change | 0.19% | 3.12% |
| Metric | XLU | NEE |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y returni | +0.19% | +3.12% |
| 6M returni | -5.07% | -12.41% |
| 3M returni | -0.84% | -3.29% |
| 1M returni | +9.01% | +9.76% |
| 1Y Sharpe ratio | -0.20 | 0.05 |
| Betai | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.07% | 3.05% |
| 5Y CAGR | +8.68% | +1.72% |
Over the past year, XLU and NEE have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.74), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | XLU | NEE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +0.19% | +3.23% |
| CAGRi | +0.19% | +3.24% | |
| Volatilityi | 15.69% | 21.16% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.20 | 0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.27 | 0.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 16.05% | 22.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.13% | 13.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 5.21% | 8.21% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 6.36% | 10.39% | |
| Max daily dropi | 4.06% | 4.63% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 4.96% | 6.96% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +51.55% | +8.89% |
| CAGRi | +8.68% | +1.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 17.44% | 26.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.31 | 0.03 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.43 | 0.04 | |
| Max drawdowni | 25.26% | 44.97% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.13% | 13.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 7.27% | 15.13% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 9.30% | 17.89% | |
| Max daily dropi | 5.56% | 8.97% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 11.70% | 22.71% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +148.23% | +238.36% |
| CAGRi | +9.52% | +12.97% | |
| Volatilityi | 19.26% | 25.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.34 | 0.43 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.47 | 0.61 | |
| Max drawdowni | 36.07% | 44.97% | |
| Current drawdowni | 7.13% | 13.84% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 6.35% | 9.57% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 8.59% | 13.47% | |
| Max daily dropi | 11.36% | 13.42% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 19.45% | 24.36% |
| Category | XLU | NEE |
|---|---|---|
| Fund name | State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF | NextEra Energy, Inc. |
| Type | ETF | ETF |
| Expense ratioi | 0.08% | N/A |
| Total assets (AUM)i | $21.33B | N/A |
| Dividend yieldi | 3.07% | 3.05% |
- Essential services with regulated revenue providing earnings stability regardless of economic conditions
- Reliable dividend income from utilities' regulated return-on-equity model generating predictable cash flows
- AI data center electricity demand is a multi-year tailwind for utility revenue as hyperscalers seek power purchase agreements
- World's largest renewable energy company with an enormous backlog of contracted wind, solar, and battery storage projects
- Florida Power & Light serves one of the fastest-growing US states — Florida population growth drives rate base growth without regulatory risk
- 25+ years of consecutive dividend increases — one of the most reliable dividend growth utilities in the S&P 500
- Rising interest rates compress utility valuations as bond alternatives become more attractive relative to utility dividend yields
- XLU's largest holding is NextEra (NEE) at 15%+ — so XLU is significantly exposed to NEE's performance specifically
- Renewable energy transition capital requirements for utilities increase debt levels and can pressure dividend growth
- Interest rate sensitivity — utility stocks including NEE de-rated significantly in 2022–2023 as rates rose rapidly, despite strong operational performance
- NextEra Energy Partners (a related limited partnership) distribution cuts in 2023 created investor confusion and temporary sentiment pressure
- Renewable energy project backlog execution requires supply chain management for solar panels and wind turbines — cost inflation risks
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Volatility, Sharpe and Sortino ratios, maximum, current, and average drawdown, Ulcer Index, and worst single-day and single-week drops across every timeframe.
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