ON vs WOLF Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
ON Semiconductor and Wolfspeed are both major SiC power semiconductor players, but with very different financial profiles and risk levels. Onsemi is profitable, diversified, and investment-grade, making it the lower-risk way to own EV SiC exposure. Wolfspeed is the pure-play SiC manufacturer with the largest substrate IP and capacity plans, but carries significant debt that makes it a high-stakes turnaround story dependent on EV demand accelerating.
ON vs WOLF is the choice between a financially stable diversified SiC player (onsemi) and a highly leveraged pure-play SiC manufacturer (Wolfspeed) — onsemi offers EV SiC exposure without balance sheet risk, while Wolfspeed offers maximum SiC upside alongside significant solvency risk if EV timing disappoints.
ON holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. ON leads on both revenue growth (9.20%) and operating margin (19.53%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for ON (+48.30%) than for WOLF (+3.19%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer a profitable, investment-grade company with SiC EV exposure alongside a diversified image sensor business
- value financial stability and the ability to invest in SiC capacity without dilutive equity raises
- want EV semiconductor exposure with the downside protection of a profitable multi-product company
- are comfortable with near-term automotive inventory correction headwinds that will resolve as channel inventories normalize
- prefer the highest-conviction pure-play SiC semiconductor position with the largest substrate manufacturing IP globally
- value vertical integration in SiC crystal growth as a long-term competitive moat if substrate supply remains constrained
- want maximum exposure to EV SiC drivetrain demand with the largest captive manufacturing base in the industry
- are comfortable with significant financial leverage and the risk that EV adoption timing may delay profitability
| Metric | ON | WOLF |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 65.0 | 26.6 |
| AI ranki | #82 | #2572 |
| Latest closei | $68.30 | $23.74 |
| 1M returni | -14.00% | -24.54% |
| 6M returni | +15.20% | +39.16% |
| 1Y returni | +37.15% | N/A |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ON | WOLF |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.18K (+31.8%) started 2025-09-18 | $10.74K (+7.4%) started 2025-09-29 |
| 5Y ago | $14.33K (+43.3%) started 2021-09-20 | $10.74K (+7.4%) started 2025-09-29 |
| 10Y ago | $59.29K (+492.9%) started 2016-09-19 | $10.74K (+7.4%) started 2025-09-29 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ON | WOLF |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $28.27B | $1.39B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 47.46 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 16.03 | -4.57 |
| Price/Salesi | 3.15 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 4.70 | 3.16 |
| Analyst targeti | $107.68 | $27.50 |
| Target upsidei | +48.30% | +3.19% |
| Metric | ON | WOLF |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 9.20% | -24.10% |
| Earnings growthi | 36.60% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +36.60% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +26.73% | +49.05% |
| Operating margini | 19.53% | -31.62% |
| Profit margini | 10.17% | 0.66% |
| ROIC proxyi | 8.31% | 1.82% |
| Return on equityi | 8.31% | 1.82% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.02 | N/A |
| Debt/equityi | 65.06 | 193.10 |
| Current ratioi | 3.46 | 6.86 |
| Quick ratioi | 2.29 | 5.51 |
Over the past year, ON and WOLF have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.48), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ON | WOLF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +31.78% | +7.42% |
| CAGRi | +31.82% | +7.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 62.94% | 120.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.69 | 0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.98 | 0.98 | |
| Max drawdowni | 50.27% | 72.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.00% | 67.70% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 14.03% | 40.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 20.61% | 44.83% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.66% | 18.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.67% | 36.70% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +43.28% | +7.42% |
| CAGRi | +7.47% | +7.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 55.66% | 120.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.33 | 0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.47 | 0.98 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.44% | 72.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.00% | 67.70% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 27.83% | 40.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 33.31% | 44.83% | |
| Max daily dropi | 23.66% | 18.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 32.67% | 36.70% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +492.88% | +7.42% |
| CAGRi | +19.49% | +7.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 52.31% | 120.82% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.52 | 0.61 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.75 | 0.98 | |
| Max drawdowni | 70.44% | 72.71% | |
| Current drawdowni | 49.00% | 67.70% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 21.42% | 40.55% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.45% | 44.83% | |
| Max daily dropi | 26.84% | 18.22% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 43.93% | 36.70% |
| Category | ON | WOLF |
|---|---|---|
| Company | ON Semiconductor Corporation | Wolfspeed, Inc. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| Core business | ON Semiconductor (onsemi) is a diversified power and analog semiconductor company with a leading SiC platform (EliteSiC) for EV drivetrains and a large CMOS image sensor business. Onsemi's SiC strategy combines captive substrate manufacturing (East Fishkill fab) with device fabrication, targeting EV OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers globally. Unlike WOLF, onsemi is profitable with an investment-grade balance sheet and a diversified revenue base including image sensors. | Wolfspeed is the largest pure-play SiC manufacturer globally, vertically integrated from crystal growth through finished SiC power devices and wafers. Its Mohawk Valley Fab in upstate New York and planned JP-Fab expansion represent billions in capital investment to create the world's largest SiC capacity. Wolfspeed supplies SiC MOSFETs, modules, and substrates to EV drivetrains and industrial power conversion applications. It is pre-profitability and carries substantial debt from its fab investment program. |
| Investor focus | Investors focus on EliteSiC design-win backlog with automotive OEMs, SiC revenue as a percentage of total, gross margin sustainability during inventory corrections, and image sensor market share in ADAS and industrial cameras. | Investors focus on Mohawk Valley Fab utilization rate, long-term supply agreement backlog with automotive Tier 1s, liquidity and debt refinancing risk, and whether EV adoption ramps at a pace sufficient to fill the fab at profitable utilization levels. |
- Profitable and investment-grade, unlike Wolfspeed — financial stability allows SiC investment without balance sheet stress
- EliteSiC has automotive OEM design wins in North America, Europe (BMW, Volkswagen Group), and Korea, providing geographic diversification
- CMOS image sensor business provides a second growth driver uncorrelated to EV demand cycles
- Largest SiC substrate manufacturer globally with decades of crystal-growth IP that competitors lack
- Captive wafer supply provides cost and quality advantages unavailable to fabless SiC device companies
- Multi-year design-in agreements with Bosch, ZF, Aptiv, and other major automotive Tier 1s provide backlog visibility
- Automotive inventory correction has materially reduced onsemi's near-term SiC revenue and plant utilization
- Wolfspeed's vertical integration in SiC substrates may provide a long-term raw material cost advantage if SiC crystal growth remains a bottleneck
- SiC ASP compression is beginning as Wolfspeed, STMicro, and Infineon all add capacity simultaneously
- Massive debt load relative to revenue creates solvency risk if EV adoption ramps more slowly than projected
- Mohawk Valley Fab utilization has been far below targets due to EV demand softness in 2023–2024
- onsemi and STMicro are both investing aggressively in SiC substrate and device capacity, directly threatening Wolfspeed's pricing power
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