ARM vs INTC Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Arm Holdings and Intel are both CPU companies but operate fundamentally differently and in different markets. Arm licenses CPU architecture earning royalties from every chip — a pure IP business model. Intel designs and sells complete x86 CPUs AND manufactures chips for itself and increasingly for others through IFS. Arm's royalty model creates very different economics — Arm earns from every Arm-based chip regardless of who makes it; Intel earns only from Intel-branded chip sales. These represent a royalty IP model vs a traditional semiconductor product company.
ARM vs INTC is CPU architecture IP licensing with royalties from every smartphone, server, and AI chip using Arm's design (Arm Holdings) versus the x86 CPU maker in manufacturing recovery attempting to reclaim process technology leadership while defending server CPU market share from AMD (Intel) — pure IP royalty model vs integrated chip designer and manufacturer.
INTC holds the edge across 5 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. INTC leads on both 1-year return (+255.25%) and forward P/E quality (43.86x vs 90.22x for ARM), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. INTC leads on both revenue growth (25.40%) and operating margin (12.19%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for INTC (+28.40%) than for ARM (+4.75%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer CPU architecture IP licensing with royalties from every chip built on Arm architecture — one of the most elegant royalty income models in technology
- value Arm's server CPU expansion through AWS Graviton and Apple Silicon invading Intel's x86 server domain while generating Arm royalties on every chip
- want semiconductor sector exposure without the capital intensity, manufacturing risk, or product cycle timing of traditional chip companies
- are comfortable with 50–100x valuation, RISC-V open-source long-term risk, and royalty revenue following chip shipment cycles with some delay
- prefer the x86 CPU maker with the largest installed PC and server CPU base as a recovery bet if Intel 18A manufacturing achieves process technology parity with TSMC
- value Intel's strategic US domestic manufacturing importance — CHIPS Act funded, government-preferred semiconductor manufacturer for domestic production
- want distressed large-cap technology recovery exposure at potentially discounted valuation if Intel's foundry execution improves
- are comfortable with AMD market share pressure on Xeon, repeated manufacturing timeline disappointments, and Arm server CPU architecture displacing x86 as a long-term threat
| Metric | ARM | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 51.6 | 58.8 |
| AI ranki | #445 | #198 |
| Latest closei | $275.61 | $108.60 |
| 1M returni | +10.54% | +17.03% |
| 6M returni | +108.24% | +135.17% |
| 1Y returni | +88.08% | +255.25% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | ARM | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $18.81K (+88.1%) started 2025-09-18 | $35.53K (+255.3%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $43.34K (+333.4%) started 2023-09-14 | $24.25K (+142.5%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $43.34K (+333.4%) started 2023-09-14 | $45.53K (+355.3%) started 2016-09-19 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | ARM | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $294.35B | $472.95B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 278.39 | 759.17 |
| Forward P/Ei | 90.22 | 43.86 |
| Price/Salesi | 57.09 | 1.65 |
| EV/Revenuei | 56.43 | 8.55 |
| Analyst targeti | $288.71 | $114.88 |
| Target upsidei | +4.75% | +28.40% |
| Metric | ARM | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 22.40% | 25.40% |
| Earnings growthi | 108.30% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +108.30% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +25.88% | +8.53% |
| Operating margini | 7.60% | 12.19% |
| Profit margini | 20.25% | -19.79% |
| ROIC proxyi | 13.35% | -10.71% |
| Return on equityi | 13.35% | -10.71% |
| Dividend yieldi | 0.00% | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | No increase yet |
| Betai | 3.89 | 2.24 |
| Debt/equityi | 5.62 | 49.00 |
| Current ratioi | 5.25 | 1.60 |
| Quick ratioi | 5.06 | 1.16 |
Over the past year, ARM and INTC have moved moderately in the same direction (correlation of 0.50), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | ARM | INTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +88.08% | +255.25% |
| CAGRi | +88.16% | +255.56% | |
| Volatilityi | 76.91% | 76.87% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.14 | 1.98 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.90 | 3.38 | |
| Max drawdowni | 48.83% | 41.90% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.28% | 22.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 23.12% | 13.24% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 27.55% | 17.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 12.84% | 17.03% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 25.35% | 21.05% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +333.42% | +122.55% |
| CAGRi | +62.74% | +17.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 76.69% | 54.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.95 | 0.48 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.58 | 0.74 | |
| Max drawdowni | 53.97% | 65.04% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.28% | 22.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.52% | 33.87% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.70% | 38.52% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.46% | 26.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.98% | 37.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +333.42% | +260.69% |
| CAGRi | +62.74% | +13.69% | |
| Volatilityi | 76.69% | 45.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.95 | 0.41 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.58 | 0.61 | |
| Max drawdowni | 53.97% | 70.80% | |
| Current drawdowni | 37.28% | 22.95% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 22.52% | 27.19% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 25.70% | 34.42% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.46% | 26.06% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 30.98% | 37.83% |
| Category | ARM | INTC |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Arm Holdings plc | Intel Corporation |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Semiconductors | Semiconductors |
| Core business | Arm Holdings licenses CPU architecture — the instruction set designs that semiconductor companies pay royalties to use in their chips. Every smartphone, tablet, Apple Mac, and increasingly server uses Arm architecture. Arm does not make chips; it earns royalties from the 100B+ chips built on its architecture annually. Arm v9 architecture enables higher royalty rates as AI capabilities demand more advanced instruction sets. AWS Graviton, Apple M-series, and Qualcomm Snapdragon are all Arm-based. | Intel designs and manufactures x86 CPUs for PCs, servers (Xeon), and data centers alongside Intel Foundry Services (IFS) for third-party chip manufacturing. Intel's x86 instruction set is the historical standard for PC and server computing — different from Arm's architecture. Intel competes with AMD in x86 CPUs and with TSMC in contract chip manufacturing through IFS. Intel's manufacturing recovery (Intel 18A process targeting 2025–2026) is the most critical investment thesis variable. |
| Investor focus | Investors track royalty per chip (improving as v9 adoption and richer architecture commands higher rates), total chip volumes using Arm (growing beyond mobile into server, automotive, and IoT), and licensing revenue from new design agreements. | Investors track data center CPU market share vs AMD, Intel Foundry Services customer wins, PC CPU market share, and Intel 18A manufacturing process yield milestones. |
- 99%+ smartphone CPU market share creates a massive royalty base that grows with global device shipments
- Server expansion through AWS Graviton, Ampere, Microsoft Cobalt, and Apple M-series puts Arm inside data center servers — historically an Intel x86 domain
- AI edge computing drives Arm adoption in automotive, robotics, and neural network processors — expanding Arm's royalty base beyond traditional mobile
- x86 server CPU installed base is enormous — data centers and enterprise IT run Intel Xeon for decades, providing upgrade cycles
- CHIPS Act manufacturing investment positions Intel as the strategic US domestic semiconductor manufacturer preferred by policymakers
- Intel Foundry Services, if successful, provides a domestic US alternative to TSMC — a strategically important service for government contracts and US national security chips
- RISC-V open-source architecture is a potential long-term competitor — companies can build RISC-V chips without paying Arm royalties
- Extreme valuation (50–100x forward earnings) demands sustained growth well above historical chip market growth rates
- Arm's royalty model means revenue follows chip shipment cycles with some delay — mobile phone volume downturns reduce royalties
- AMD has been steadily taking data center CPU market share from Intel — Xeon's position is eroding
- Intel's manufacturing recovery (Intel 4, Intel 3, Intel 18A) has missed multiple schedules — execution credibility is low
- Arm server adoption (AWS Graviton, Ampere) is expanding into Intel's x86 server monopoly — a long-term architectural displacement risk
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