LITE vs COHR: Which Photonics Stock Has More Upside?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Lumentum is a focused photonics pure-play with exposure to telecom, datacom, and 3D sensing, while Coherent is a larger, more diversified photonics platform with strong AI networking transceiver momentum and a meaningful balance sheet deleveraging story. Both benefit from AI-driven demand for high-speed optical networking, but differ in scale, leverage, and end-market breadth.
Use this LITE vs COHR comparison to evaluate two distinct ways to invest in the AI-driven photonics opportunity. LITE offers a focused, lower-leverage approach; COHR combines broader platform scale with significant earnings upside if deleveraging and AI datacom growth continue to compound.
LITE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LITE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+378.41% vs +81.41%), though COHR has the better forward P/E setup (19.07x vs 25.85x for LITE). LITE leads on both revenue growth (109.30%) and operating margin (27.95%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COHR (+56.11%) than for LITE (+33.42%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a focused pure-play on photonics and optical networking without conglomerate complexity
- Prefer a cleaner balance sheet with lower leverage relative to COHR
- Believe 3D sensing recovery and telecom normalization can add incremental upside
- Want a smaller-cap option with operating leverage as volumes and margins recover
- Want the largest diversified photonics platform with leading AI networking transceiver exposure
- Believe ongoing debt reduction will significantly increase earnings per share over time
- Are comfortable with business complexity spanning networking, industrial, and EV markets
- Want optionality from compound semiconductors and silicon carbide for EV power electronics
| Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 84.1 | 69.7 |
| AI ranki | #6 | #30 |
| Latest closei | $756.17 | $209.29 |
| 1M returni | -19.30% | -30.38% |
| 3M returni | -0.89% | -25.89% |
| 6M returni | -14.23% | -37.73% |
| 1Y returni | +378.41% | +81.41% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $44.88K (+348.8%) started 2025-10-23 | $17.22K (+72.2%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $92.96K (+829.6%) started 2021-10-25 | $35.43K (+254.3%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $182.65K (+1726.5%) started 2016-10-24 | $76.8K (+668.0%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $77.21B | $52.11B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 156.17 | 64.74 |
| Forward P/Ei | 25.85 | 19.07 |
| Price/Salesi | 40.44 | 12.17 |
| EV/Revenuei | 25.51 | 7.75 |
| Analyst targeti | $1,148.43 | $415.36 |
| Target upsidei | +33.42% | +56.11% |
| Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 109.30% | 33.70% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 27548.00% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +27548.00% |
| FCF margini | +7.46% | -9.13% |
| Operating margini | 27.95% | 11.83% |
| Profit margini | -230.10% | 11.31% |
| ROIC proxyi | -240.03% | 7.98% |
| Return on equityi | -240.03% | 7.98% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.51 | 2.11 |
| Debt/equityi | 35.99 | 31.61 |
| Current ratioi | 1.68 | 2.43 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.32 | 1.17 |
Over the past year, LITE and COHR have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.80), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +348.77% | +72.23% |
| CAGRi | +349.73% | +72.36% | |
| Volatilityi | 99.22% | 88.22% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 1.97 | 1.01 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.13 | 1.49 | |
| Max drawdowni | 42.80% | 51.32% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.28% | 50.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 11.02% | 14.54% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 14.60% | 19.53% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.19% | 14.24% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.40% | 28.87% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +829.64% | +254.31% |
| CAGRi | +56.28% | +28.83% | |
| Volatilityi | 64.69% | 66.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.95 | 0.65 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.41 | 0.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.48% | 62.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.28% | 50.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.49% | 25.09% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 36.87% | 31.25% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.46% | 29.87% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.40% | 30.16% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +1726.50% | +668.04% |
| CAGRi | +33.73% | +22.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 58.77% | 59.35% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.72 | 0.57 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.04 | 0.82 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.89% | 72.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 33.28% | 50.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 24.63% | 28.22% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.22% | 34.08% | |
| Max daily dropi | 32.98% | 29.87% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.75% | 32.69% |
| Category | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | Coherent Corp. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Communication Equipment | Scientific & Technical Instruments |
| Core business | Optical and photonic products for telecom networks, datacom transceivers (800G+), 3D sensing, and commercial lasers. | Compound semiconductors, high-speed datacom/telecom transceivers (800G, 1.6T), industrial lasers, and silicon carbide for EV power electronics. |
| Investor focus | Datacom transceiver ramp, 3D sensing recovery, telecom cycle, and operating leverage as volumes scale. | AI datacom transceiver leadership, balance sheet deleveraging from the II-VI merger, and compound semiconductor platform margins. |
- Focused pure-play photonics exposure across telecom, datacom, and sensing
- Growing datacom transceiver share from AI-driven networking demand (800G+)
- Asset-light model with meaningful operating leverage potential as revenue recovers
- Leading high-speed transceiver platform for AI networking infrastructure (800G, 1.6T)
- Diversified end markets across networking, industrial lasers, and EV/power electronics
- Deleveraging story: debt reduction from the II-VI/Coherent merger drives earnings upside over time
- Telecom end market remains cyclical and is recovering from a prolonged downcycle
- 3D sensing revenue is concentrated in Apple product cycles
- Intense competition in datacom transceivers from COHR, Inphi, and others
- Significant debt load from acquisitions limits financial flexibility near term
- Integration complexity across multiple merged businesses creates execution risk
- Cyclicality across industrial laser and compound semiconductor end markets
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