LITE vs COHR: Which Photonics Stock Has More Upside?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Lumentum is a focused photonics pure-play with exposure to telecom, datacom, and 3D sensing, while Coherent is a larger, more diversified photonics platform with strong AI networking transceiver momentum and a meaningful balance sheet deleveraging story. Both benefit from AI-driven demand for high-speed optical networking, but differ in scale, leverage, and end-market breadth.
Use this LITE vs COHR comparison to evaluate two distinct ways to invest in the AI-driven photonics opportunity. LITE offers a focused, lower-leverage approach; COHR combines broader platform scale with significant earnings upside if deleveraging and AI datacom growth continue to compound.
LITE holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. LITE has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+557.06% vs +218.59%), though COHR has the better forward P/E setup (19.07x vs 25.85x for LITE). LITE leads on both revenue growth (109.30%) and operating margin (27.95%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for COHR (+56.11%) than for LITE (+33.42%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want a focused pure-play on photonics and optical networking without conglomerate complexity
- Prefer a cleaner balance sheet with lower leverage relative to COHR
- Believe 3D sensing recovery and telecom normalization can add incremental upside
- Want a smaller-cap option with operating leverage as volumes and margins recover
- Want the largest diversified photonics platform with leading AI networking transceiver exposure
- Believe ongoing debt reduction will significantly increase earnings per share over time
- Are comfortable with business complexity spanning networking, industrial, and EV markets
- Want optionality from compound semiconductors and silicon carbide for EV power electronics
| Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 84.0 | 71.8 |
| AI ranki | #7 | #30 |
| Latest closei | $881.26 | $281.86 |
| 1M returni | +6.66% | -14.12% |
| 6M returni | +35.41% | +11.03% |
| 1Y returni | +557.06% | +218.59% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $62.1K (+521.0%) started 2025-09-04 | $29.48K (+194.8%) started 2025-09-04 |
| 5Y ago | $100.15K (+901.5%) started 2021-09-07 | $45.58K (+355.8%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $243.1K (+2331.0%) started 2016-09-06 | $129.59K (+1195.9%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $77.21B | $52.11B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 156.17 | 64.74 |
| Forward P/Ei | 25.85 | 19.07 |
| Price/Salesi | 40.44 | 12.17 |
| EV/Revenuei | 25.51 | 7.75 |
| Analyst targeti | $1,148.43 | $415.36 |
| Target upsidei | +33.42% | +56.11% |
| Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 109.30% | 33.70% |
| Earnings growthi | N/A | 27548.00% |
| EPS growthi | N/A | +27548.00% |
| FCF margini | +7.46% | -9.13% |
| Operating margini | 27.95% | 11.83% |
| Profit margini | -230.10% | 11.31% |
| ROIC proxyi | -240.03% | 7.98% |
| Return on equityi | -240.03% | 7.98% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.51 | 2.11 |
| Debt/equityi | 35.99 | 31.61 |
| Current ratioi | 1.68 | 2.43 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.32 | 1.17 |
Over the past year, LITE and COHR have moved strongly in the same direction (correlation of 0.78), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | +521.00% | +194.77% |
| CAGRi | +522.62% | +195.23% | |
| Volatilityi | 96.48% | 83.93% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 2.33 | 1.66 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.79 | 2.53 | |
| Max drawdowni | 42.80% | 47.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.32% | 33.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 9.77% | 10.47% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 13.45% | 15.12% | |
| Max daily dropi | 14.19% | 14.24% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.40% | 28.87% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +901.54% | +355.79% |
| CAGRi | +58.67% | +35.52% | |
| Volatilityi | 63.35% | 65.13% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.98 | 0.73 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.46 | 1.07 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.48% | 62.87% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.32% | 33.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.27% | 24.35% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 36.78% | 30.77% | |
| Max daily dropi | 22.46% | 29.87% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 27.40% | 30.16% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +2331.05% | +1195.91% |
| CAGRi | +37.62% | +29.22% | |
| Volatilityi | 58.11% | 58.55% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.77 | 0.66 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.11 | 0.96 | |
| Max drawdowni | 66.89% | 72.22% | |
| Current drawdowni | 16.32% | 33.97% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 24.59% | 27.79% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.21% | 33.85% | |
| Max daily dropi | 32.98% | 29.87% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 31.75% | 32.69% |
| Category | LITE | COHR |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | Coherent Corp. |
| Sector | Technology | Technology |
| Industry | Communication Equipment | Scientific & Technical Instruments |
| Core business | Optical and photonic products for telecom networks, datacom transceivers (800G+), 3D sensing, and commercial lasers. | Compound semiconductors, high-speed datacom/telecom transceivers (800G, 1.6T), industrial lasers, and silicon carbide for EV power electronics. |
| Investor focus | Datacom transceiver ramp, 3D sensing recovery, telecom cycle, and operating leverage as volumes scale. | AI datacom transceiver leadership, balance sheet deleveraging from the II-VI merger, and compound semiconductor platform margins. |
- Focused pure-play photonics exposure across telecom, datacom, and sensing
- Growing datacom transceiver share from AI-driven networking demand (800G+)
- Asset-light model with meaningful operating leverage potential as revenue recovers
- Leading high-speed transceiver platform for AI networking infrastructure (800G, 1.6T)
- Diversified end markets across networking, industrial lasers, and EV/power electronics
- Deleveraging story: debt reduction from the II-VI/Coherent merger drives earnings upside over time
- Telecom end market remains cyclical and is recovering from a prolonged downcycle
- 3D sensing revenue is concentrated in Apple product cycles
- Intense competition in datacom transceivers from COHR, Inphi, and others
- Significant debt load from acquisitions limits financial flexibility near term
- Integration complexity across multiple merged businesses creates execution risk
- Cyclicality across industrial laser and compound semiconductor end markets
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