APP vs TTD: AppLovin vs The Trade Desk — Which Ad Tech Stock Wins?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
AppLovin and The Trade Desk are both high-growth ad tech platforms but in different segments: AppLovin's AXON AI engine dominates mobile app advertising, while The Trade Desk is the leading independent programmatic buyer across open web, CTV, and retail media. AppLovin has been the stronger near-term performer; The Trade Desk is the more diversified and independent platform.
Use this APP vs TTD comparison to choose your ad tech investment. AppLovin has the stronger recent growth trajectory driven by AXON AI mobile performance; The Trade Desk offers more channel diversification including CTV and programmatic with the neutrality advantage versus Google.
APP holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. APP has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-53.92% vs -75.88%), though TTD has the better forward P/E setup (14.62x vs 15.44x for APP). APP leads on both revenue growth (52.80%) and operating margin (77.68%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for APP (+56.93%) than for TTD (-8.00%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want exposure to an AI-native mobile advertising platform with demonstrated AXON performance improvements
- Are comfortable with gaming-heavy revenue concentration while waiting for e-commerce expansion
- Believe AppLovin's AI targeting lead in mobile will compound revenue and margin growth
- Value the combination of software platform margins and first-party app data as a durable advantage
- Want the leading independent programmatic advertising platform with CTV and retail media exposure
- Value Trade Desk's neutrality as a structural advantage in a market where Google dominates
- Believe the CTV advertising shift will compound revenue as streaming replaces linear TV
- See post-guidance-miss valuation as a potential entry point into a high-quality ad tech franchise
| Metric | APP | TTD |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 54.0 | 41.3 |
| AI ranki | #276 | #808 |
| Latest closei | $260.25 | $13.00 |
| 1M returni | -17.45% | +2.52% |
| 3M returni | -33.61% | -24.81% |
| 6M returni | -41.95% | -45.77% |
| 1Y returni | -53.92% | -75.88% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | APP | TTD |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $4.41K (-55.9%) started 2025-10-23 | $2.4K (-76.0%) started 2025-10-23 |
| 5Y ago | $27.82K (+178.2%) started 2021-10-25 | $1.71K (-82.9%) started 2021-10-25 |
| 10Y ago | $39.92K (+299.2%) started 2021-04-15 | $45.58K (+355.8%) started 2016-10-24 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | APP | TTD |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $108.83B | $6.84B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 24.88 | 17.32 |
| Forward P/Ei | 15.44 | 14.62 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 15.94 | 1.81 |
| Analyst targeti | $508.39 | $13.39 |
| Target upsidei | +56.93% | -8.00% |
| Metric | APP | TTD |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 52.80% | 3.00% |
| Earnings growthi | 57.00% | -23.60% |
| EPS growthi | +57.00% | -23.60% |
| FCF margini | +46.56% | +19.50% |
| Operating margini | 77.68% | 14.21% |
| Profit margini | 64.58% | 13.61% |
| ROIC proxyi | 203.69% | 15.44% |
| Return on equityi | 203.69% | 15.44% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 2.49 | 1.04 |
| Debt/equityi | 111.13 | 16.86 |
| Current ratioi | 4.30 | 1.72 |
| Quick ratioi | 4.17 | 1.68 |
Over the past year, APP and TTD have moved weakly in the same direction (correlation of 0.26), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | APP | TTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -55.87% | -75.98% |
| CAGRi | -55.92% | -76.03% | |
| Volatilityi | 71.67% | 56.84% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.84 | -2.30 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -1.07 | -2.95 | |
| Max drawdowni | 64.52% | 77.98% | |
| Current drawdowni | 64.52% | 75.98% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 34.68% | 53.84% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 39.37% | 57.16% | |
| Max daily dropi | 19.68% | 21.90% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.08% | 29.89% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +178.16% | -82.92% |
| CAGRi | +22.74% | -29.80% | |
| Volatilityi | 78.02% | 67.62% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.58 | -0.25 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.92 | -0.36 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.90% | 91.46% | |
| Current drawdowni | 64.52% | 90.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.01% | 45.18% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 53.42% | 51.71% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.12% | 38.61% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.08% | 42.53% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +299.16% | +355.82% |
| CAGRi | +28.49% | +16.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 76.64% | 67.90% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.64 | 0.49 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 1.01 | 0.76 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.90% | 91.46% | |
| Current drawdowni | 64.52% | 90.68% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 42.92% | 29.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 51.07% | 38.64% | |
| Max daily dropi | 20.12% | 38.61% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 34.08% | 42.53% |
| Category | APP | TTD |
|---|---|---|
| Company | AppLovin Corporation | The Trade Desk, Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | Advertising Agencies | Advertising Agencies |
| Core business | Mobile app publishing and AI-powered advertising platform. AXON AI engine optimises ad targeting and monetisation across AppLovin's mobile game portfolio and third-party publishers. | Independent demand-side platform (DSP) allowing advertisers and agencies to buy programmatic digital advertising across display, video, CTV, audio, and retail media. UID2 privacy-first identity solution. |
| Investor focus | AXON 2.0 AI engine performance improvements, software platform revenue growth and margin expansion, e-commerce advertising expansion beyond mobile gaming, and share buybacks. | Connected TV advertising growth, retail media network integrations, UID2 adoption as a cookie replacement, and platform market share versus walled gardens. |
- AXON AI engine has demonstrated exceptional performance improvements in ad targeting efficiency for mobile
- Software platform segment generates very high margins and is growing rapidly
- Own-app portfolio provides first-party data and testing ground for AI ad optimisation
- Only major independent DSP at scale — neutrality is a significant competitive advantage versus Google's DSP
- CTV advertising is growing rapidly and The Trade Desk is the leading independent platform in this channel
- UID2 identity framework positions Trade Desk as a privacy-first alternative to third-party cookies
- Revenue concentration in mobile gaming advertising — expansion to e-commerce is unproven
- Highly valued on near-term momentum; execution slowdown would significantly impact valuation
- Competition from Google, Meta, and Unity in mobile advertising targeting
- Growth decelerated in 2024 and the company issued guidance misses — execution credibility was damaged
- Google's privacy sandbox changes and cookie deprecation created uncertainty for programmatic advertising
- Walled gardens (Google, Meta, Amazon) controlling the largest inventory pools limits Trade Desk's reach
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