TTD vs PUBM Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
The Trade Desk and PubMatic occupy opposite sides of programmatic advertising. TTD is the dominant demand-side platform (buys ads for advertisers); PubMatic is a supply-side platform (sells ad inventory for publishers). They don't directly compete — they are complementary infrastructure on opposite ends of the same programmatic transaction. TTD is much larger and growing faster; PubMatic is a smaller independent SSP competing with Google's publisher ad tools.
TTD vs PUBM is the dominant independent demand-side platform for advertisers with CTV growth and UID2 identity infrastructure (The Trade Desk) versus a smaller supply-side platform for publishers maximizing programmatic ad revenue (PubMatic) — TTD is the clear leader and high-quality compounder; PubMatic is a speculative small-cap SSP bet on independent publisher ad tech.
TTD holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. PUBM has delivered stronger 1-year price return (+103.12% vs -68.31%), though TTD has the better forward P/E setup (14.62x vs 20.32x for PUBM). On fundamentals, PUBM is growing revenue faster (10.50%), while TTD maintains the higher operating margin (14.21%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for PUBM (+23.03%) than for TTD (-8.00%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- prefer the dominant independent demand-side platform capturing CTV advertising growth as streaming overtakes linear TV
- value TTD's neutral position (no content ownership) building trust with both advertisers and publishers as Google faces antitrust scrutiny
- want programmatic advertising exposure at the highest-quality, highest-margin platform in digital ad infrastructure
- are comfortable with 30–50x sales premium valuation requiring sustained 20%+ revenue growth and UID2 becoming the cookie-replacement standard
- prefer a small-cap supply-side platform with publisher monetization exposure and owned infrastructure cost advantages
- value PubMatic's CTV publisher partnerships as an independent alternative to Google's dominant publisher ad management tools
- want programmatic ad tech exposure at a smaller company with higher risk/reward ratio than The Trade Desk's premium valuation
- are comfortable with competitive pressure from larger SSPs, smaller scale limiting platform investment, and ad market cyclicality
| Metric | TTD | PUBM |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 38.3 | 25.4 |
| AI ranki | #1399 | #2830 |
| Latest closei | $13.92 | $17.55 |
| 1M returni | +2.81% | +4.59% |
| 6M returni | -40.79% | +119.79% |
| 1Y returni | -68.31% | +103.12% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | TTD | PUBM |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $3.17K (-68.3%) started 2025-09-18 | $20.31K (+103.1%) started 2025-09-18 |
| 5Y ago | $2K (-80.0%) started 2021-09-20 | $6.82K (-31.8%) started 2021-09-20 |
| 10Y ago | $46.25K (+362.5%) started 2016-09-21 | $5.96K (-40.4%) started 2020-12-09 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | TTD | PUBM |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $6.84B | $751.58M |
| Trailing P/Ei | 17.32 | N/A |
| Forward P/Ei | 14.62 | 20.32 |
| Price/Salesi | N/A | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 1.81 | 2.27 |
| Analyst targeti | $13.39 | $20.30 |
| Target upsidei | -8.00% | +23.03% |
| Metric | TTD | PUBM |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 3.00% | 10.50% |
| Earnings growthi | -23.60% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | -23.60% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +19.50% | +20.86% |
| Operating margini | 14.21% | 0.74% |
| Profit margini | 13.61% | -4.66% |
| ROIC proxyi | 15.44% | -5.59% |
| Return on equityi | 15.44% | -5.59% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.04 | 1.58 |
| Debt/equityi | 16.86 | 17.14 |
| Current ratioi | 1.72 | 1.27 |
| Quick ratioi | 1.68 | 1.23 |
Over the past year, TTD and PUBM have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.13), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | TTD | PUBM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -68.31% | +103.12% |
| CAGRi | -68.34% | +103.22% | |
| Volatilityi | 56.32% | 71.58% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -1.84 | 1.25 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -2.39 | 2.75 | |
| Max drawdowni | 75.93% | 42.75% | |
| Current drawdowni | 74.28% | 1.29% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 46.37% | 13.91% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 51.77% | 17.92% | |
| Max daily dropi | 21.90% | 12.81% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 29.89% | 15.70% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | -80.03% | -31.77% |
| CAGRi | -27.57% | -7.37% | |
| Volatilityi | 67.78% | 66.58% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | -0.20 | 0.15 | |
| Sortino ratioi | -0.29 | 0.22 | |
| Max drawdowni | 90.66% | 84.27% | |
| Current drawdowni | 90.02% | 56.05% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 43.50% | 58.63% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 50.10% | 61.26% | |
| Max daily dropi | 38.61% | 33.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 42.53% | 36.70% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +362.46% | -40.41% |
| CAGRi | +16.57% | -8.57% | |
| Volatilityi | 68.32% | 72.49% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.50 | 0.17 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 0.76 | 0.26 | |
| Max drawdowni | 90.66% | 91.02% | |
| Current drawdowni | 90.02% | 74.90% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 28.90% | 71.08% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.70% | 73.44% | |
| Max daily dropi | 38.61% | 33.73% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 42.53% | 36.70% |
| Category | TTD | PUBM |
|---|---|---|
| Company | The Trade Desk, Inc. | PubMatic, Inc. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Technology |
| Industry | Advertising Agencies | Software - Application |
| Core business | The Trade Desk is the world's leading independent demand-side platform (DSP) for programmatic advertising. Advertisers use TTD's platform to buy digital ads across connected TV (CTV), display, mobile, audio, and digital out-of-home inventory. TTD's Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) is an open identity standard being adopted as a replacement for third-party cookies. AI platform Kokai automates and optimizes campaign performance. TTD works exclusively on the demand side (advertisers), not as a publisher. | PubMatic is a supply-side platform (SSP) and ad tech company providing digital advertising infrastructure for publishers (media companies, app developers) to sell their ad inventory programmatically. PubMatic's platform enables publishers to maximize ad revenue through real-time bidding, header bidding, and direct deals with advertisers. PubMatic focuses on CTV, display, mobile app, and digital out-of-home publisher monetization. |
| Investor focus | Investors track spend on platform (advertising dollars flowing through TTD), customer count, CTV adoption (the fastest-growing channel), and whether UID2 becomes the identity standard for cookieless advertising. | Investors track revenue growth, omnichannel publisher partnerships, CTV publisher win rate, and the efficiency improvements from PubMatic's owned-and-operated infrastructure differentiating it from pure software SSPs. |
- Only major independent DSP — TTD doesn't own content or ad inventory, giving it a neutral position that publishers and advertisers trust vs Google's conflicted dual-sided role
- CTV (streaming TV ads) is TTD's fastest-growing channel — as TV advertising shifts from linear to streaming, TTD captures programmatic CTV inventory
- UID2 open identity standard positions TTD to be the infrastructure layer for post-cookie digital advertising measurement
- Owned-and-operated data centers provide cost efficiency advantages over cloud-based SSP competitors — lower infrastructure costs translate to better publisher revenue share
- CTV publisher partnerships position PubMatic for connected TV ad spend growth as streaming overtakes linear TV advertising
- Independent SSP without content or media ownership builds publisher trust vs large platforms with media conflicts
- Google's Privacy Sandbox and cookie deprecation timeline has shifted multiple times, delaying the urgency for UID2 adoption
- Premium valuation (30–50x sales historically) requires consistent 20%+ revenue growth — any deceleration compresses multiples significantly
- Advertisers could consolidate their DSP usage or bring programmatic buying in-house, reducing TTD's share of ad spend
- SSP is a challenging competitive position — Google's GAM/DFP, Index Exchange, and Magnite compete directly for publisher ad inventory management
- Smaller scale than The Trade Desk — PubMatic's revenue is a fraction of TTD's, limiting investment in AI and platform development
- Ad market cyclicality — digital advertising is economically sensitive; PubMatic's publisher-side revenue contracts when brands cut ad budgets in recessions
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