NFLX vs DIS: Netflix vs Disney — Which Streaming Stock Wins?: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Netflix is the pure-play streaming market leader with growing margins and a maturing advertising business, while Disney is a diversified media company with unmatched IP, a profitable parks business, and streaming assets still working toward full profitability. The choice is between a focused, higher-multiple streaming leader and a diversified conglomerate with more complex moving parts but potentially more upside from asset re-rating.
Use this NFLX vs DIS comparison to evaluate streaming leadership quality. Netflix has superior streaming fundamentals and cleaner execution; Disney has more diverse assets and potentially undervalued franchise IP, but also more operational complexity and ongoing cord-cutting headwinds.
DIS holds the edge across 3 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. DIS leads on both 1-year return (-11.36%) and forward P/E quality (14.52x vs 21.39x for NFLX), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. NFLX leads on both revenue growth (13.40%) and operating margin (33.38%), suggesting a stronger fundamental setup on both dimensions. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for DIS (+18.26%) than for NFLX (+14.61%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want pure-play exposure to the global streaming leader with a proven subscription model
- Believe advertising tier growth will compound revenue per subscriber meaningfully
- Prefer a simpler business model without theme parks, linear TV, or cruise lines
- Are comfortable paying a premium multiple for demonstrated streaming market leadership
- See Disney's franchise IP and parks as undervalued relative to streaming peers
- Believe the ESPN direct-to-consumer launch represents a major catalyst
- Want diversified media and entertainment exposure across streaming, parks, and film
- Are comfortable with the complexity of a turnaround in linear TV while streaming scales
| Metric | NFLX | DIS |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 57.4 | 40.1 |
| AI ranki | #190 | #1049 |
| Latest closei | $78.25 | $105.31 |
| 1M returni | +5.46% | +3.49% |
| 6M returni | -20.98% | +3.71% |
| 1Y returni | -37.77% | -11.36% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NFLX | DIS |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $6.29K (-37.1%) started 2025-09-05 | $8.93K (-10.7%) started 2025-09-05 |
| 5Y ago | $12.9K (+29.0%) started 2021-09-07 | $5.86K (-41.4%) started 2021-09-07 |
| 10Y ago | $78.18K (+681.8%) started 2016-09-06 | $12.77K (+27.7%) started 2016-09-06 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NFLX | DIS |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $340.28B | $186.65B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 25.70 | 22.29 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.39 | 14.52 |
| Price/Salesi | 13.15 | 2.18 |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.19 | 2.37 |
| Analyst targeti | $93.66 | $127.84 |
| Target upsidei | +14.61% | +18.26% |
| Metric | NFLX | DIS |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 13.40% | 6.80% |
| Earnings growthi | 11.10% | -48.30% |
| EPS growthi | +11.10% | -48.30% |
| FCF margini | +52.49% | +4.92% |
| Operating margini | 33.38% | 19.30% |
| Profit margini | 28.22% | 8.70% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.54% | 8.01% |
| Return on equityi | 49.54% | 8.01% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | 1.39% |
| Betai | 1.51 | 1.40 |
| Debt/equityi | 55.24 | 39.40 |
| Current ratioi | 1.14 | 0.71 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.92 | 0.56 |
Over the past year, NFLX and DIS have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.00), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NFLX | DIS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -37.09% | -10.69% |
| CAGRi | -37.17% | -10.72% | |
| Volatilityi | 899.17% | 26.50% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.85 | -0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 8.10 | -0.64 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.20% | 22.23% | |
| Current drawdowni | 38.06% | 11.39% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 27.17% | 10.99% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 30.60% | 12.14% | |
| Max daily dropi | 89.81% | 7.75% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 89.92% | 10.27% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +28.97% | -42.17% |
| CAGRi | +5.23% | -10.39% | |
| Volatilityi | 404.12% | 29.63% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | -0.37 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.35 | -0.52 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.69% | 57.33% | |
| Current drawdowni | 41.57% | 42.65% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 29.53% | 41.36% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.30% | 42.82% | |
| Max daily dropi | 89.81% | 13.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 89.92% | 16.34% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +681.80% | +19.60% |
| CAGRi | +22.84% | +1.81% | |
| Volatilityi | 286.78% | 29.03% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | 0.05 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.61 | 0.08 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.69% | 60.72% | |
| Current drawdowni | 41.57% | 47.20% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.25% | 27.06% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.29% | 34.23% | |
| Max daily dropi | 89.81% | 13.16% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 89.92% | 19.45% |
| Category | NFLX | DIS |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Netflix, Inc. | The Walt Disney Company |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | Entertainment | Entertainment |
| Core business | Global subscription streaming platform with over 300 million paid subscribers. Expanding into advertising-supported tiers, live events, and gaming. Pure-play streaming with no legacy media or theme park assets. | Diversified media and entertainment conglomerate spanning Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+, ABC, and linear cable channels, alongside theme parks, cruise lines, and studio film and TV production. |
| Investor focus | Subscriber growth and retention, advertising revenue ramp, average revenue per membership growth, content ROI, and operating margin expansion. | Streaming profitability path for Disney+ and Hulu, ESPN flagship direct-to-consumer launch, Parks segment revenue and margins, and studio franchise performance. |
- Largest global streaming platform with the most content and deepest subscriber base
- Advertising tier creating a new revenue stream and accessing more price-sensitive subscribers
- Pure-play streaming model with no legacy media drag or theme park capital requirements
- Unmatched franchise IP portfolio: Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar, Disney Animation
- Theme parks provide high-margin recurring revenue largely uncorrelated with streaming content trends
- ESPN direct-to-consumer launch represents a major potential revenue rerating catalyst
- Content spending required to maintain subscriber engagement and reduce churn
- Advertising revenue ramp still maturing relative to competitors
- Increasing competition from Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, and Amazon Prime Video
- Linear television (ABC, cable networks) revenue decline as cord-cutting accelerates
- Content cost inflation for Marvel and franchise productions
- Streaming subscriber growth at Disney+ has been uneven
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