LIVE
SIRI
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. · Communication Services
$30.23
+9.85% this month
VERSUS
⟷
COMPARE
SPOT
Spotify Technology S.A. · Communication Services
$483.72
+0.36% this month
Scoreboard verdict
Across AI score, momentum, valuation, upside, operating margin
SIRI
2
SPOT
2
Comparison scoreboard
MIXED SETUPAI Score
SIRI 26.3
SPOT ✓40.7
1Y Return
SIRI ✓+30.51%
SPOT -32.58%
Fwd P/E
SIRI ✓8.96
SPOT 30.54
Target Up.
SIRI -7.41%
SPOT ✓+23.65%
Op. Margin
SIRI N/A
SPOT N/A
Metrics last refreshed: 7/14/2026
Quick take
SIRI vs SPOT: Sirius XM vs Spotify Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
Sirius XM is a declining US satellite radio service with a loyal but shrinking subscriber base being disrupted by streaming, while Spotify is the global audio streaming leader growing monthly active users and expanding from music into podcasts, audiobooks, and video. Spotify is the growth story; SiriusXM is the declining cash flow business.
SIRI vs SPOT is satellite radio value/decline versus global audio streaming growth — SiriusXM wins if its free cash flow is sustained long enough to return capital to shareholders; Spotify wins if global audio streaming leadership and gross margin improvement drive long-term value.
Live analysis · updated 7/14/2026
SIRI and SPOT are closely matched — they split the tracked metrics evenly. SIRI leads on both 1-year return (+30.51%) and forward P/E quality (8.96x vs 30.54x for SPOT), a relatively favorable combination of momentum and valuation. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for SPOT (+23.65%) than for SIRI (-7.41%).
Normalized 1Y performance
SIRI
SPOT
Recent returns
SIRI
SPOT
Analyst price targets & sentiment
SIRI · 13 analysts
Price target range
analyst low$18.00
analyst high$45.00
analyst mean$28.00
current price$30.23
-7.4% upside to analyst mean
SPOT · 38 analysts
STRONG BUYHOLDSTRONG SELL
Buy (1.6/5.0)
Price target range
analyst low$390.31
analyst high$709.22
analyst mean$598.13
current price$483.72
+23.7% upside to analyst mean
Who should consider this stock?
SIRI may suit investors who:
- →value SiriusXM's free cash flow generation from a captive legacy subscriber base at a low valuation
- →prefer a value/income approach where SiriusXM's declining subscriber base is offset by capital return
- →believe SiriusXM's auto manufacturer trial funnel will persist longer than streaming pessimists expect
- →are comfortable with secular subscriber decline risk in exchange for near-term FCF returns
SPOT may suit investors who:
- →want the global audio streaming market leader with 640M+ MAU and expanding podcast monetization
- →believe gross margin improvement from podcast and audiobook integration will sustain earnings growth
- →value Spotify's recommendation algorithm and playlist ecosystem as durable user retention advantages
- →prefer a growth investment in global audio streaming over SiriusXM's US-only satellite radio decline
Performance & AI score
| Metric | SIRI | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| AI score | 26.3 | 40.7 |
| AI rank | #2637 | #1099 |
| Latest close | $30.23 | $483.72 |
| 1M return | +9.85% | +0.36% |
| 6M return | +47.55% | -8.73% |
| 1Y return | +30.51% | -32.58% |
$10,000 invested — hypothetical growth (dividends reinvested)
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | SIRI | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $13.69K (+36.9%) started 2025-07-14 | $6.74K (-32.6%) started 2025-07-14 |
| 5Y ago | $6.82K (-31.8%) started 2021-07-14 | $19.09K (+90.9%) started 2021-07-14 |
| 10Y ago | $11.67K (+16.7%) started 2016-07-14 | $32.46K (+224.6%) started 2018-04-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Valuation & upside potential
| Metric | SIRI | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $10.18B | $99.46B |
| Trailing P/E | 12.81 | 32.95 |
| Forward P/E | 8.96 | 30.54 |
| Price/Sales | 1.19 | 5.67 |
| EV/Revenue | 2.35 | 5.30 |
| Analyst target | $28.00 | $598.13 |
| Target upside | -7.41% | +23.65% |
Growth, profitability & risk
| Metric | SIRI | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 1.10% | 8.20% |
| Earnings growth | 21.80% | 222.40% |
| EPS growth | +21.80% | +222.40% |
| FCF margin | +11.66% | +4.04% |
| Operating margin | N/A | N/A |
| Profit margin | 9.86% | 15.45% |
| ROIC proxy | 7.38% | 37.99% |
| Return on equity | 7.38% | 37.99% |
| Dividend yield | 3.55% | 0.00% |
| Beta | 0.96 | 1.56 |
| Debt/equity | 84.88 | 5.94 |
| Current ratio | 0.44 | 2.06 |
| Quick ratio | 0.31 | 1.51 |
Drawdown & downside risk
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
1Y risk snapshot
SIRI max drawdown17.44%
SPOT max drawdown44.11%
SIRI max wkly drop12.62%
SPOT max wkly drop18.43%
5Y risk snapshot
SIRI max drawdown73.86%
SPOT max drawdown76.39%
SIRI max wkly drop38.41%
SPOT max wkly drop21.83%
10Y risk snapshot
SIRI max drawdown73.86%
SPOT max drawdown80.51%
SIRI max wkly drop38.41%
SPOT max wkly drop21.83%
Performance metrics by period
| Period | Metric | SIRI | SPOT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growth | +30.51% | -32.58% |
| CAGR | +30.54% | -32.60% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.81 | -0.76 | |
| Max drawdown | 17.44% | 44.11% | |
| Max daily drop | 7.89% | 12.43% | |
| Max wkly drop | 12.62% | 18.43% | |
| 5Y | Growth | -44.17% | +90.88% |
| CAGR | -11.01% | +13.81% | |
| Sharpe ratio | -0.14 | 0.42 | |
| Max drawdown | 73.86% | 76.39% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.25% | 16.76% | |
| Max wkly drop | 38.41% | 21.83% | |
| 10Y | Growth | -8.84% | +224.62% |
| CAGR | -0.92% | +15.28% | |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.04 | 0.44 | |
| Max drawdown | 73.86% | 80.51% | |
| Max daily drop | 15.25% | 16.76% | |
| Max wkly drop | 38.41% | 21.83% |
Business comparison
| Category | SIRI | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Sirius XM Holdings Inc. | Spotify Technology S.A. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | N/A | N/A |
| Core business | US satellite radio broadcaster with 32M+ subscribers paying for commercial-free music, talk, sports, and exclusive content (Howard Stern, NFL, MLB, NBA). SiriusXM recently merged with Liberty Media to simplify its corporate structure. | Global audio streaming platform with 640M+ monthly active users, 260M+ premium subscribers, podcast investments, and audiobook integration. Spotify is expanding into video podcasts and is the world's most-used music discovery platform. |
| Investor focus | Subscriber retention as car replacement cycles shift to EV (which can stream via internet), ARPU growth, content cost management, and free cash flow generation. | MAU growth, premium subscriber conversion, gross margin improvement from podcast and audiobook integration, and ad-supported revenue monetization. |
SIRI strengths
- →SiriusXM subscribers are among the most loyal in media — churn rates are low once subscribed, particularly among older demographics
- →New car deals with auto manufacturers pre-install SiriusXM for trial periods that convert at meaningful rates
- →Strong free cash flow generation from a captive subscriber base with limited competitive substitution historically
SPOT strengths
- →Spotify is the world's largest music streaming platform with unmatched recommendation algorithms and global reach
- →Podcast platform investments create audio content that carries better margin economics than music (no per-stream royalties to labels)
- →Two-sided marketplace connecting artists, podcasters, and listeners creates data network effects that improve personalization
Risks to watch — SIRI
- →EV cars have native streaming integration (Spotify, Apple Music) via smartphone — this fundamentally weakens SiriusXM's new car trial funnel
- →Subscriber count is declining as car streaming alternatives improve and new car sales slow
- →Howard Stern's contract renewal risk — his content is one of the most important subscriber retention assets
Risks to watch — SPOT
- →Music label royalty rates remain a structural margin headwind — Spotify has limited negotiating power vs Universal, Sony, and Warner
- →Competition from Apple Music, YouTube Music, and Amazon Music — all bundled with larger ecosystems
- →Podcast exclusivity investments have had mixed ROI — some high-profile deals were restructured or ended
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