NFLX vs SPOT Stock Comparison: AI Score, Valuation, Performance and Upside
NFLX and SPOT are both subscription entertainment platforms, separated by who owns the content. Netflix produces much of its own, so incremental viewing costs it little and margins expand with scale. Spotify licenses nearly all its music, paying royalties on every stream, which caps gross margin and makes non-music content the main lever for improving it.
Use this NFLX vs SPOT comparison to understand why their margin ceilings differ. Content ownership is the structural reason Netflix earns higher gross margins than a licensed-music platform ever could. Spotify's route to better economics runs through pricing power and shifting listening toward podcasts and audiobooks, where it keeps more of each dollar.
NFLX holds the edge across 4 of 5 key metrics in this comparison. SPOT has delivered stronger 1-year price return (-28.03% vs -40.90%), though NFLX has the better forward P/E setup (21.39x vs 31.04x for SPOT). On fundamentals, SPOT is growing revenue faster (13.90%), while NFLX maintains the higher operating margin (33.38%) — a classic growth-versus-profitability split. Analyst consensus implies meaningfully more upside for NFLX (+14.61%) than for SPOT (+9.43%).
Human Wall Street analysts' price targets, typically implying a ~12-month view — a separate signal from this site's own AI Prediction Signal further down the page, which is a 5-/30-day machine-learning forecast based on price history alone.
- Want owned content economics with margins that expand as viewing scales
- Value global streaming leadership and content budget advantages
- Believe advertising adds a durable second revenue stream
- Accept continuous content investment and unpredictable hits
- Want the leading global music platform with strong engagement
- Believe demonstrated pricing power will keep lifting revenue per user
- See podcasts and audiobooks as a genuine margin mix improvement
- Accept royalty-capped gross margin and dependence on label licences
| Metric | NFLX | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| AI scorei | 57.5 | 45.7 |
| AI ranki | #186 | #682 |
| Latest closei | $71.15 | $510.01 |
| 1M returni | -12.66% | -7.28% |
| 6M returni | -23.85% | +7.94% |
| 1Y returni | -40.90% | -28.03% |
How much would $10,000 be worth today if invested at the start of each period, with all dividends reinvested?
| Period | NFLX | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| 1Y ago | $5.89K (-41.1%) started 2025-09-25 | $7.16K (-28.4%) started 2025-09-25 |
| 5Y ago | $12.01K (+20.1%) started 2021-09-27 | $21.89K (+118.9%) started 2021-09-27 |
| 10Y ago | $75.24K (+652.4%) started 2016-09-26 | $34.23K (+242.3%) started 2018-04-03 |
Hypothetical — past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Metric | NFLX | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| Market capi | $340.28B | $115B |
| Trailing P/Ei | 25.70 | 30.32 |
| Forward P/Ei | 21.39 | 31.04 |
| Price/Salesi | 13.15 | N/A |
| EV/Revenuei | 7.19 | 5.99 |
| Analyst targeti | $93.66 | $612.13 |
| Target upsidei | +14.61% | +9.43% |
| Metric | NFLX | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growthi | 13.40% | 13.90% |
| Earnings growthi | 11.10% | N/A |
| EPS growthi | +11.10% | N/A |
| FCF margini | +52.49% | +8.51% |
| Operating margini | 33.38% | 13.71% |
| Profit margini | 28.22% | 18.43% |
| ROIC proxyi | 49.54% | 44.48% |
| Return on equityi | 49.54% | 44.48% |
| Dividend yieldi | N/A | N/A |
| Payout ratioi | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend growth streaki | N/A | N/A |
| Betai | 1.51 | 1.58 |
| Debt/equityi | 55.24 | 5.56 |
| Current ratioi | 1.14 | 2.11 |
| Quick ratioi | 0.92 | 1.60 |
Over the past year, NFLX and SPOT have moved barely in the same direction (correlation of 0.03), based on daily returns.
Lower drawdown and smaller single-period drops generally indicate a smoother ride, though they do not guarantee lower future risk.
| Period | Metric | NFLX | SPOT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Y | Growthi | -41.11% | -28.43% |
| CAGRi | -41.16% | -28.47% | |
| Volatilityi | 897.43% | 44.80% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.84 | -0.63 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 8.00 | -0.89 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.04% | 43.34% | |
| Current drawdowni | 42.68% | 29.99% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 27.92% | 26.92% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 31.03% | 28.66% | |
| Max daily dropi | 89.81% | 12.43% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 89.92% | 18.43% | |
| 5Y | Growthi | +20.06% | +118.94% |
| CAGRi | +3.73% | +16.99% | |
| Volatilityi | 403.97% | 47.76% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.42 | 0.47 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 3.32 | 0.69 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.69% | 76.39% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.87% | 34.27% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 30.00% | 31.95% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 37.59% | 39.76% | |
| Max daily dropi | 89.81% | 16.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 89.92% | 21.83% | |
| 10Y | Growthi | +652.43% | +242.27% |
| CAGRi | +22.37% | +15.62% | |
| Volatilityi | 286.73% | 46.95% | |
| Sharpe ratioi | 0.37 | 0.45 | |
| Sortino ratioi | 2.60 | 0.66 | |
| Max drawdowni | 91.69% | 80.51% | |
| Current drawdowni | 46.87% | 34.27% | |
| Avg drawdowni | 20.48% | 30.96% | |
| Ulcer Indexi | 28.48% | 38.03% | |
| Max daily dropi | 89.81% | 16.76% | |
| Max wkly dropi | 89.92% | 21.83% |
| Category | NFLX | SPOT |
|---|---|---|
| Company | Netflix, Inc. | Spotify Technology S.A. |
| Sector | Communication Services | Communication Services |
| Industry | Entertainment | Internet Content & Information |
| Core business | Global subscription video streaming service that produces much of its own content, licenses the rest, and operates an advertising-supported tier alongside live programming and games. | Global music and audio streaming platform with free advertising-supported and paid premium tiers, expanding into podcasts and audiobooks, licensing nearly all its music from rights holders. |
| Investor focus | Regional revenue growth, advertising tier scale, engagement, content spending efficiency, margin expansion, and free cash flow. | Monthly active user and premium subscriber growth, average revenue per user and price increases, gross margin progression, and podcast and audiobook contribution. |
- Owning original content means no per-stream royalty, so margins improve as viewing scales
- Largest global streaming base with content budget advantages
- Advertising tier creates a second revenue stream from existing content
- Largest global music streaming platform with strong user engagement and discovery features
- Price increases have been absorbed with limited subscriber loss, demonstrating pricing power
- Podcasts and audiobooks carry better economics than licensed music, improving the margin mix
- Content production requires continuous heavy investment with uncertain hit rates
- Developed market penetration limits subscriber-led growth
- Competes with technology platforms willing to spend for strategic reasons
- Music royalties paid to labels and publishers structurally cap gross margin
- Depends on licence renewals with a small number of powerful rights holders
- Competes against music services bundled into much larger technology ecosystems
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